does the math matter?

[Gronbog]

First of all, the OP states that he is up over the past 5 to 7 years, which means that he is not keeping detailed records. The tendancy of the human mind in this situation is to over estimate wins and under estimate losses.

Secondly, speaking of a winning streak in terms of years is meaningless without also stating how much play per year. Playing a few dozen or even several thousand hands per year and coming out ahead is not remarkable, nor can one draw any conclusions from it. One must play a statistically significant number of hands in a given year. How many is that? Search for posts by me on the topic of N0 (N-zero) to see how this is calculated.

The executive summary of how the math works is that there is your expected result and there is variance. In the short term, variance is much larger than the expected result, so anything can happen. In the long run, variance becomes much smaller than the expected result, making it very unlikely that you will end up on the opposite side of prediction made by the math.

[billryan]

First of all, the OP states that he is up over the past 5 to 7 years, which means that he is not keeping detailed records. The tendancy of the human mind in this situation is to over estimate wins and under estimate losses.

Secondly, speaking of a winning streak in terms of years is meaningless without also stating how much play per year. Playing a few dozen or even several thousand hands per year and coming out ahead is not remarkable, nor can one draw any conclusions from it. One must play a statistically significant number of hands in a given year. How many is that? Search for posts by me on the topic of N0 (N-zero) to see how this is calculated.

The executive summary of how the math works is that there is your expected result and there is variance. In the short term, variance is much larger than the expected result, so anything can happen. In the long run, variance becomes much smaller than the expected result, making it very unlikely that you will end up on the opposite side of prediction made by the math.

So you are saying there is a chance...?

[billryan]

A player is taking a pot shot and is dealt a Royal Flush. Reaching for his phone, he feels a sudden pain and dies from a massive heart attack. Anyone think he was lucky?
Guy is tapped out and headed to his car when he finds a $20 bill. He goes inside and loses it in four hands of BJ. He heads back to his car only to find a meteor had landed on it just as he sat down to play blackjack. He heads home broke and carless. Was he unlucky?

[notes1]

gronbog, ted stated he has been playing for 30 years. while i did not ask him specific details on amount of play, he has posted enough about his play that one can assume he does not limit his vp play to a couple thousand hands per year. and, if i understand the law of continuation, even couple of thousand hands, played year after year, is really one long continuous play. even the picture he posted shows him playing 10 handed. that adds up quick.

[FAA]

It could just be Ted's variance finally coming around in his favor, to help balance prior decades of futility! I'm as amazed as Notes. It is what it is.

[Tedlark]

It could just be Ted's variance finally coming around in his favor, to help balance prior decades of futility! I'm as amazed as Notes. It is what it is.

I would be inclined to agree with this.

[DougJ]

The miracle player in question here plays Dream Card, for heaven's sake.
Playing negative games is one thing, playing CARNIVAL games is a completely different level.

Whatever . . . . nuff said.

[Tedlark]

The miracle player in question here plays Dream Card, for heaven's sake.
Playing negative games is one thing, playing CARNIVAL games is a completely different level.

Whatever . . . . nuff said.

The miracle player in question hasn't played Dream Card since December, 2018.

....nuff said.

[wildman49]

It's nice to be a winner Ted, hard for some here to understand, some can and do beat the casino over time!

[tech58]

It's nice to be a winner Ted, hard for some here to understand, some can and do beat the casino over time!