Could I always be missing 25 deuces??

[Bstillmatic]

Hello video poker players,

I've played 2,028,269 hands of fpdw optimally and I'm 25 deuces below expectation! Let's just say expectation is 50 million hands. When I get to 50 million hands should I have gotten my missing deuces back or am I more likely to still be 25 deuces below expectation because each hand of vp is an independent event? tks.

[$licktwo]

The hands are independent. You are not more likely to hit deuces because you were below expectation previously.

If you flip a fair coin 40 times and get all heads the expression of your next 40 flips is still 50/50.

It sucks in video poker when you run really bad then remember that run brought you no closer to anything good.

[olds442jetaway]

I think 50 million hands could be considered long-term. In the long run that should produce about 8900 quad deuces in round numbers. The probability is You will approach that number long-term. There is no guarantee however that you will make up the 25 quad deuces you are behind. There is a difference in odds On your very next hand and probability over time

[onemoretry]

There is a difference in odds On your very next hand and probability over time

Given that each deal is independent, how can the odds (or probabilities) change?

[olds442jetaway]

Too long to explain but if u google odds vs probability, it will explaim the difference. It has to do with chances for and chances against the odds don’t change, but probability does depending on how many events get plugged into the equation

[olds442jetaway]

If you google case-control studies odds probability it spells it out. The math formulas are different for calculating both

[olds442jetaway]

One last thing that may put it into perspective a little more. Every time you hit deal the odds of getting a dealt royal flush are about 649,000 or so to one however the probability of getting a Dealt royal flush every hand in your session is probably many many quadrillions to one

[billryan]

Too long to explain but if u google odds vs probability, it will explaim the difference. It has to do with chances for and chances against the odds don’t change, but probability does depending on how many events get plugged into the equation

I spent the better part of a semester of LSN working on a paper that explained this. The more I read, the more confused I got. In the end, I tried to be humorous and said this is one of those things you can't quantify but that simply is. Professor gave me a generous C-.

[olds442jetaway]

Better than I got in a supposed gut course in Marriage at UCONN. a big fat D. Somehow that D held me together 47 years and counting.

[onemoretry]

Too long to explain but if u google odds vs probability, it will explaim the difference. It has to do with chances for and chances against the odds don’t change, but probability does depending on how many events get plugged into the equation

According to what I read on the internet, odds and probabilities are mathematically connected. For a given probability, you can calculate the odds, and vice versa. Therefore, the thought that odds can stay constant while the probability changes does not appear to be correct.