Playing Hunches........

[rfonlymama]

Thanks Mike A....I'll let everyone know the highs (maybe lows) of the weekend.  I have been there often enough that this trip is strictly for video poker and maybe one good meal!

[wilcoxfun]

Here is my two cents on this:  If you have four cards to the royal and have the wild royal then keep it!  If you have jacks or better I would toss the jacks or better and go for the royal.  Not sure that is the right play but that is what I do.  Usually end up with another jacks or better but since I have a difficult time with memory not sure if I don't lose more often.

[Eduardo]

I can't imagine holding a jacks or better over 4 to the royal. I'm pretty sure the 4 royal is the correct play on that one. 
I mean, you not only have your great shot at hitting the royal, but good odds on a flush or a straight.
 
I'll go look now.
 
Edit: Okay, I went and looked.  It's not even close. Hold that 4 to the royal over a JoB any day! It's even close with 3 to the royal vs. a JoB so 4 to the royal is an easy call.

[New2vp]

 
  Even personal experience of someone else should not affect your decision -
just hitting one royal can skew the stats in their favor. That doesn't mean you should follow.  OTOH, deuces wild I sometimes hold 5k in lieu of 4rf draw, even 5low, if I am in the middle of a "recent SHADOW" streak.  It only costs a few cents in EV-maybe none if the 4rf includes the ace.

 
Great point about your own or others personal experience!  A few past examples do not always repeat that often in the future.
 
On your other point, do you mean that you often hold 5 of a kind rather than drawing to three deuces rather than a 4 royal flush?  I cannot see how you would ever have both 5 of a kind and 4 cards to a natural royal flush.
 
If so, I agree with that 2nd point also.  I don't play often enough that I think this will even out for me over time.  When playing for quarters and getting dealt 22277, it's borderline to justify throwing away 50 credits of a certain 75-credit win because I have an expectation of 75.2868 credits when there's an 85% chance that I will get less than I started with.  I know that's not what the expectations say, but there's a difference between playing for $1.25 per hand with an 0.76% edge (on full pay deuces wild) and playing for $18.75 per hand with an 0.35% edge.  Nearly $20 per hand is a bit out of my comfort zone.  Still I agree the possibility of getting 1000 credits for deuces is very attractive.
 
Now if I were certain of getting dealt 5 sevens 1000 times, I would go with the long term.  But this is simply a personal preference, not something that is right or wrong unless your deity is expected value.  I even recall Bob Dancer writing a column once indicating that he rationalized [not his words] he would lose time on the few times (4%) that he would hit quad  deuces because it might require an attendant to refill the coins in the machine (before ticket in ticket out), so he would go against EV and take the 5 of a kind each time.
 
My guess is that many of you out there who would always go for the deuces would also go for it when dealt 222TT when the EV for 5 tens is less than the certain 75 credits.  Well, it is gambling and not everyone plays only when they have an edge.  It's great that not everyone has the same style.   

[jm002546]

  Yes - hold 3w. Thanks for the correction.

[Nancy J.]

Get rid of the 2...I had just that hand and won over $2000.