The Challenge

[notes1]

you have denounced those who gamble for a living multiple times. it may not be mine or your cup of tea, but for those who choose to do it, so be it. your first post, 2nd sentence on this thread, you question whether anyone on this forum, could go a month without going to casino. your posts that assert there are folks deceptively implying that VP can be a profitable venture, farrr outweigh those who actually make such an assertion. what is far more common, is your assertion that that one will always make money in the stock market, without offering any of the risks associated with investing.

all the preaching you do, who are you actually talking to? seems to me, that those who accuse others of doing something wrong, are actually talking to themselves. maybe, you have a problem, and cannot come to grip with it.

how much have you spent in total on that fancy car you own? it might very well finance some casino low roller for many years.

[onemoretry]

Here's what I would like to see. I want to see an expert come on this forum and say positive VP is on life support, smaller coin-in is better and it's not your fault if you can't play video poker like a computer. That will never happen because it doesn't sell. (229 words)

Hmm! Starting to get a bit repetitive and tiresome?

[FloridaPhil]

We have established that the probability of failure for someone doing everything right and who has played the the required number of hands is not zero, so I am forced to say that it is possible but highly unlikely. So unlikely that you will never run across anyone who has made it that far and is still losing.

We may be getting closer. Do you agree that "making it that far" is highly unlikely given the games we have today? Personally, I believe it has always been somewhat of a super human feat. If it takes the skill of a computer, the discipline of a monk and the bankroll of a millionaire to profit, why teach it at all? Who benefits?

I have been severely criticized over the years for stating the fact that less-coin in equals smaller losses. It doesn't matter if you choose to play single coin for 2,500 hands or max coins for 500 hands, less money run through today's casino games means less long term cost. Let's leave out the part where playing games that don't exist perfectly creates profit and I will be fine with that. All that does is fill the casino's bank account. (142 words)

[FloridaPhil]

you have denounced those who gamble for a living multiple times. it may not be mine or your cup of tea, but for those who choose to do it, so be it. your first post, 2nd sentence on this thread, you question whether anyone on this forum, could go a month without going to casino. your posts that assert there are folks deceptively implying that VP can be a profitable venture, farrr outweigh those who actually make such an assertion. what is far more common, is your assertion that that one will always make money in the stock market, without offering any of the risks associated with investing.

all the preaching you do, who are you actually talking to? seems to me, that those who accuse others of doing something wrong, are actually talking to themselves. maybe, you have a problem, and cannot come to grip with it.

how much have you spent in total on that fancy car you own? it might very well finance some casino low roller for many years.

Does your keyboard have a caps button? I feel like we are talking in morse code (Google it).

What you or I do with our money is our own business. I don't feel guilty because I worked hard and can afford to buy things I enjoy. What I would not feel comfortable with is telling someone to build a car like mine so they can make a profit. I have had dozens of cars like this over my lifetime. I only made money on two of them. I did my best work on every one. I didn't blame myself or anyone else for this.

What we are doing by telling people they can profit from video poker is the same thing. Video poker is not a profitable enterprise by itself. There are ways to turn it into a business. That is a different game than I am playing.

[notes1]

after more than 3 decades in the financial business and 13 years of going to casinos, i can almost guarantee that there are fewer folks who actually believe they will make casino at a casino, than those who invest at or near the high of the stock market, and sell at a loss, because they cannot mentally handle the gyrations that often occur with investing. and, now, after a loss of nearly 30% from the highs, i assure you that there are untold sellers, at a loss, who bought, during the run up of 2020.

do his posts warn against this kind of risk? no different than those who advocate winning at the casino.

[Gronbog]

We may be getting closer. Do you agree that "making it that far" is highly unlikely given the games we have today? Personally, I believe it has always been somewhat of a super human feat.

No. Anyone who plays regularly and lives to an average age will easily play enough hands to reach the long run as defined by N0.

If it takes the skill of a computer, the discipline of a monk and the bankroll of a millionaire to profit, why teach it at all? Who benefits?

In my opinion, it only takes the skill of an average person. As I said, you don't have to play computer perfect. Just well enough to still have an advantage. I can't argue with needing the discipline of a monk. You may be surprised to know that the required bankroll is not as high as you might think. There are formulas for relating risk of ruin to required bankroll, but I'm sure everyone here has had enough math for now.

So my opinion is that the skill level and bankroll are attainable for many. It is the discipline which is the downfall of those who will fail. It is all somewhat related because discipline includes testing yourself to verify your skill level and not playing while underfunded.

I have been severely criticized over the years for stating the fact that less-coin in equals smaller losses. It doesn't matter if you choose to play single coin for 2,500 hands or max coins for 500 hands, less money run through today's casino games means less long term cost. Let's leave out the part where playing games that don't exist perfectly creates profit and I will be fine with that. All that does is fill the casino's bank account. (142 words)

For a recreational player playing at a disadvantage, I don't think anyone here has disputed that less coin in means smaller losses. Playing single coin vs max coin on the same game will definitely result in smaller losses over the same number of hands played. I don't know if you consider me to be an "expert", but if you do then you can now say that you have one in your camp.

I do have to get picky with your example though. Assuming that max coins is 5 coins, then 500 hands at max coin and 2500 hands at single coin represent the same coin-in of 2500 coins. In that case the single coin player does expect to lose more due to the inferior pay table.

[FloridaPhil]

after more than 3 decades in the financial business and 13 years of going to casinos, i can almost guarantee that there are fewer folks who actually believe they will make casino at a casino, than those who invest at or near the high of the stock market, and sell at a loss, because they cannot mentally handle the gyrations that often occur with investing. and, now, after a loss of nearly 30% from the highs, i assure you that there are untold sellers, at a loss, who bought, during the run up of 2020.

do his posts warn against this kind of risk? no different than those who advocate winning at the casino.

The difference between investing in individual companies and gambling on the whims of a RNG are stark. You cannot research a royal flush. You cannot tell in advance which slot machine is going to hit a jackpot. Changing machines does not change the game. The game is put there by a business that wants all your money. They spend billions to convince you the game is profitable. They use terms like "long term", "perfect play", "advantage" and "intelligent". These terms are designed to keep you in the game as long and as big as possible. If you do well, your comps will be cut. If you become too much of a nuisance, you may be asked to play somewhere else. The casino makes all the rules.

When you invest in stocks you are buying a piece of a company. If the company makes money, so do you. If the company losses money, you can cash out and buy the stock of a more profitable business. Since the stock market began, there have been a number of 20% or more downturns. In each and every case, the markets recovered. The people who sold into the downturn were the suckers. The people who bought value at the same time became rich. Market recovery is a lot shorter than any undefined "long term" video poker span of time. I am not against gambling. I am against teaching stupid. (235 words)

[notes1]

the dow reached a high in october of 2007 and did not recover to previous high, until spring of 2013. lot longer than 1 year.

investing is not intended as a form of recreation or entertainment. casino gaming is.

still more double talk, you despise those who advocate winning is possible at casino, but you offer investing advice without the warnings of losses.

[Gronbog]

The difference between investing in individual companies and gambling on the whims of a RNG are stark.

Yes. As discussed above. Over time, the certainty of the results from the RNG are much more predictable (approaches 100%) and, when properly bankrolled, the risk is almost non existent. If you stick to the strategy and are properly bankrolled you will survive the downswings and will almost certainly achieve the expected result in the long run.

Sounds a lot like the advice of investment advisors doesn't it? "If you invest in quality companies, diversify and stay invested (i.e. stick to the strategy), you will reduce risk, survive the down turns and may realize a profit in the long term."

[FloridaPhil]

still more double talk, you despise those who advocate winning is possible at casino, but you offer investing advice without the warnings of losses.

Three decades in the financial industry and you don't know this stuff? Incredible.

If you owned the right stocks for you before this downturn, you should have the right stocks now. We'll visit this next year when the market has recovered. We can compare your video poker returns with my stock returns and we'll see who does better. (58 words)

Note: We have even started to talk about taxes yet.