Something to Think About

[onemoretry]

Best of luck to you Gronbog.

Ditto. Even though you may be getting ready to throw in the towel on this one, I hope you continue with your informative posts on other threads on this forum.

[FloridaPhil]

It's not silly at all. In his March 29 post in another thread, he, in fact, outlined in detail how he calculates that number. Do you need directions on how to find that post?

Fair enough. What is the magic number of hands where luck stops affecting your results and the game's odds take over?

[Gronbog]

Not only have I repeatedly provided the formula for that number, Phil also once asked me for the exact number of a particular game he was playing, and I did the calculation for him. Just recently, in the thread about going for the royal during the contest, I did the calculation again for 9/6 jacks or better. Finally, when asked just now to do it again, I actually did answer when I said N0 (N-zero).

Phil, just stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

[Jstark]

Luck doesn't exist.

As explained by many others...2 people are dealt the same hand of: A K Q J 8. Player 1 throws the 8 away and draws the 4. Player 2 draws the 10. People like Phil who believe in "luck" will say player 2 was luckier. But why? Both that 8 and 10 have the exact same odds of appearing. Just because one result doesn't pay anything and the other pays a lot has no bearing on what you guys call "luck."

[FloridaPhil]

Not only have I repeatedly provided the formula for that number, Phil also once asked me for the exact number of a particular game he was playing, and I did the calculation for him. Just recently, in the thread about going for the royal during the contest, I did the calculation again for 9/6 jacks or better. Finally, when asked just now to do it again, I actually did answer when I said N0 (N-zero).

Phil, just stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

I suspect I am not the only person on this forum who does not know the meaning of "NO (N-zero)". What is the exact number?

Years ago when I was a computer consultant, many of my clients where confused by computer jargon. I would tell them this, "If a person can not explain something to you in simple terms you can understand within two sentences, they don't know what they are talking about". What is the actual number of hands played in video poker where luck becomes meaningless?

Here is another example of this folly. We are told playing 100.1% games perfectly is profitable long term. Does this mean a 99.9999999% game is not?

[onemoretry]

What is the actual number of hands played in video poker where luck becomes meaningless

I do not believe anyone has said luck ever becomes absolutely meaningless. What they have said is that it becomes less and less of a significant factor as more and more hands are played.

And, to respond to another of your preposterous questions, there is not some exact number of hands that causes the "luck switch" to turn off.

[Gronbog]

I suspect I am not the only person on this forum who does not know the meaning of "NO (N-zero)". What is the exact number?

You can't be serious. It has been explained to you in particular at least a half a dozen times and I once did the exact calculation for a game you asked about. I'm now absolutely sure that you're just trolling me. However, in the interest of putting this to bed (I must be crazy to believe that) ...

Years ago when I was a computer consultant, many of my clients where confused by computer jargon. I would tell them this, "If a person can not explain something to you in simple terms you can understand within two sentences, they don't know what they are talking about".

Well, that's a catchy saying, but that doen't make it true. It's a gross generalization, and you know that. Please explain the rules for major league baseball in two sentences. However, I'll bite. You will then have no excuse to ever again say that this has not been explained to you.

What is the actual number of hands played in video poker where luck becomes meaningless?

1 ) 9 x N0 = 9 x Variance / ((1 - return)^2)) is the exact number of hands at which your expected result equals 3 standard deviations.
2) Beyond that number of hands, you would have to so lucky to still be ahead that luck is no longer a factor.

Here is another example of this folly. We are told playing 100.1% games perfectly is profitable long term. Does this mean a 99.9999999% game is not?

Yes. Although, because the house edge (1 - return) is so small and it is in the denominator of the N0 formula, N0 will be very high for such a game. It will take a long time to get to the long run. This is actually mathematical verification of something that you preach which is that playing better pay tables gives you a better chance of lasting longer than playing poorer ones.

[TripleTriple]

Both that 8 and 10 have the exact same odds of appearing.

I'm assuming you meant 4 and 10, since the odds are different for the 8?

Just because one result doesn't pay anything and the other pays a lot has no bearing on what you guys call "luck."

I must admit, I'm having trouble "wrapping my head around this". In a way, I would say this is the definition of luck...the result being what you "wished for" between two events with equal likelihood of occurring.

[FloridaPhil]

I do not believe anyone has said luck ever becomes absolutely meaningless. What they have said is that it becomes less and less of a significant factor as more and more hands are played.

And, to respond to another of your preposterous questions, there is not some exact number of hands that causes the "luck switch" to turn off.

I can agree with both of these statements.

Obviously, playing the best games perfectly lets you play more hands for your money. If the game is net positive and your play is accurate enough, in time your chance of making a profit is greater than your chance of loss.

Making a profit in six months can not be attributed to skill. When you start the counter and stop it makes all the difference. I do not believe the average player ever reaches long term.

The majority of today's video poker games are severely negative. Few players can play anywhere near perfect enough to earn the games mathematical return. Some players have a bankroll large enough to weather any downturn. If they do, few have the discipline to stay the course without attempting to recover losses or engineer a jackpot. Humans are not computers.

For all these reasons, I recommend playing video poker smaller rather than bigger.

[FloridaPhil]

4/8/2020 Session Two

Starting Credits - 44,763
Ending Credits - 47,263

This afternoon's session was much better with quad 2s with an Ace for 2,000, quad 5s, quad Ks and quad Aces for 800. Added 2,000 credits to my total. The high for the day is currently 6,000 credits, so I decided to quit and save my ammunition for another day. I have the feeling this game is sucking my into a gigantic loss. For now, I am over nine royals ahead.