Unlucky thirteen

[dinghy]

The hosts will go as far as saying things are tight without implying its the machines, but I know what they meant.

If you believe they can tighten the video poker without adjusting pay tables, then it's not a stretch to assume they can "flip the switch" on specific player accounts.

I have been tracking quads without wild cards for about 3 months now. This will be accurate to within 10 percent. I should hit roughly 1.6 quads per hour based on roughly how many draw poker hands I play per hour. It has been averaging about .9 per hour. The rest of the better hands appear to be about average. However, the full houses are coming in bunched up together, then none for a long time. Very strange. I know this could still be the nature of randomness, but as to the quads......my sample is quite large. Nearly 240,000 hands. Still probably too small to be statistically significant

I would say that's an extreme disparity. But are you sure of your test assumptions and procedures? For example, wouldn't the natural quad frequency vary by game? Deuces Wild generates relatively fewer natural quads because the held deuces interfere.

[olds442jetaway]

True, but the job frequency is even smaller than the quads in deuces without the deuces. I stopped counting the job sessions where I would get anywhere from 0 to 3 quads in 5-8 hours of play there were so many. I have completely abandoned 99.54 job at this point. Am fairly close to holding my own with airport deuces and 98.44 Joker kings. My bankroll busts have almost all been on job.

[olds442jetaway]

I am taking a run up tonite to play for a few hours after the crowds and drunks have left for the most part. At least I have access to 2 quarter All Star 2 machines that I can short coin and still get 940 for one on the Royal in Joker Kings and 17 for a quad. That is especially inportant for me because if I am playing the clone, I can seitch from quarters to halves, to dollars, and even 2 dollar play. Hope the force/quads will be with me. If anything else higher falls my way, I will be ahead and call it a night.

[BobDancer]

True, but the job frequency is even smaller than the quads in deuces without the deuces. I stopped counting the job sessions where I would get anywhere from 0 to 3 quads in 5-8 hours of play there were so many. I have completely abandoned 99.54 job at this point. Am fairly close to holding my own with airport deuces and 98.44 Joker kings. My bankroll busts have almost all been on job.

The nature of Jacks or Better, Olds, is “hit the royal flush or lose.” That’s pretty much it. But the royal flushes come, every 40,000 hands on average. They just aren’t predictable when they come. If you play this 99.54% game, at the same stakes, for a million hands, you will end up very close to 25 royals and your return will be close to 99.5%. If you play Airport Deuces the same length of time, your return will be close to 98.9%. The results of the Joker Wild variation you play will be worse. I’m assuming the casino gives you the same benefit for all three games, which doesn’t have to be the case at all.

The problem isn’t in the game. It’s in your clone process that attempts to be ahead TODAY by continually increasing your stakes and hitting semi-premium hands which will catch you up and then you can start over again with low stakes. The deuces game bails you out with four deuces at 200-1 payback once in 4500 hands or so. JoB doesn’t have any non-royal payback paying more than 50-1, and that happens once in 9,000 or so. But the royal comes faster in JoB --- just not always today.

Should you play JoB consistently for the same stakes, your results will be much better than playing either of the other two games.

It’s your money, of course, and you can do as you please. If you hate JoB for any reason, you don’t have to play it. But you’re blaming the game and not your methodology for your losses. And that’s not accurate.

[olds442jetaway]

I realize the Royal is needed on Job, I just hate to have so many losing sessions playing it, especially if the Royals are way behind. When quads and full houses are behind too, it is a total disaster. All in all, I am doing fine this year on non job games especially since I found a couple of machines I can short coin and get paid correctly as if I had 5 in. My problem is discipline. I have kept track on how much I would have been ahead this year with the clone had I bailed anytime I had a 10 percent retracement from the high point of the day. Believe it or not about 30 grand instead of being down about 3 grand or so. I believe that big number though came from the 2 or 3 windfall hands I hit so this not an average year by any means. I agree by the way with what you said above

[Tablet22331]

Bob Dancer, so I can play perfectly for a million hands, hit the expected Royals, and end up at 99.5%. Which is a net loss of 0.5%. Of course, I could win a lot of free potholders from the casino with those million hands. Or maybe invest in mutual bonds and mutual stocks, less effort than a million hands of VP and paying considerably more.

[dinghy]

Of course, I could win a lot of free potholders from the casino with those million hands. Or maybe invest in mutual bonds and mutual stocks, less effort than a million hands of VP and paying considerably more.

Is there a slot club somewhere that only pays out in potholders?

Just to pick a well-publicized example of a good JoB play, one Vegas casino's current promo offers a little over 1.5% total free slot play for the first $32k coin-in of the month. And they usually follow up with more free play in the mail.

In addition, you'll receive just over 1% in total comp dollars -- but they're only redeemable for potholders.

[dinghy]

I have kept track on how much I would have been ahead this year with the clone had I bailed anytime I had a 10 percent retracement from the high point of the day. Believe it or not about 30 grand instead of being down about 3 grand or so.

If I had only visited the houses where I was going to make a sale, I would have had a bona fide career as a Roomba salesman.

[olds442jetaway]

These are real numbers by the way. I have always said video poker is a big sine curve tilted slightly downward. The dicipline failure even hit me Saturday night at like 4 AM. After hitting the 2 big dealt hands as posted in the rec forum, I played 25 bucks a hand on a single line game hoping for a 23,500 Royal. It took less than 30 minutes to go through 1,000 bucks of my winnings leaving me hundreds ahead for the session instead of thousands. I also forked over to the State 140 bucks in withholding. Lamont has his dancing shoes on again. Not even time to shine them first though to clean the light layer of dust on them

[Tablet22331]

The point I am making is that there is a price to pay for enjoying long-term VP.

Yes, anyone can beat the house short-term. Win big and go home and never return!

But if you are playing consistently perfect VP at 99.5%, hitting all of the expected royals, *over time* you will *only* lose 0.5%.

That 0.5% is the house "fee" for your use of their machine and your free drinks etc. The house has resources beyond belief in creating games and paytables that cannot be defeated *over time*, unless you are willing to assign a value to your collection of potholders.

I enjoy the games and realize that even with careful and cautious play, my enjoyment *over time* is going to have a price. Anyone who tells you different has a very valuable collection of potholders in their kitchen.