2 pair block

[ansoda]

while playing DB recently I noticed (after many hands) that when I was delt 2 pair they wern't converting to FH on any draw. Conversely, many 1 pair holds were drawing to 3 of a kind very frequently. So... I adjusted my play and began to split the 2 pair combos to hold the highest pair. This strategy worked for the entire session, I hit enough trips to keep me in the session way past my bankroll expiration point. I don't really feel comfortable splitting as visions of FH's blowing by haunt me, but i could not ignore the pattern that was obvious to me.
Have any of you encountered such a thing, and do you adjust your play or steadfastly stick to your strategy?

[shadowman]

First of all let's look at the math.  
 
You will hit a FH only once out of every 12 tries on average. Going only two cycles would turn that into 24 missed tries in a row. Not unusual. Since two pair is only deal once in every 21 hands you won't see a FH using this approach but once every 12*21 = 252 hands on average. Hitting 3oak from a pair occurs once in every 9 tries and making two pair occurs once in every 6 tries. So, getting one of the two occurs about once every 4 tries. So, if you put all this together in most bonus games you will see two pair returns 8.4 vs. 3.7 for holding a low pair and around 7.95 for a high pair.
 
Clearly, you are not giving up too much holding just the high pair. You didn't state whether you were just doing the split when a high pair was involved but doing it for a low pair appears to be rather costly.
 
So, now to the real question. When you see a pattern is it a good idea to use that information and adjust play accordingly. In my experience these kind of random patterns can last anywhere from a few seconds to many months. However, nothing I've been able to detect provides any information as to how long it will last. In most cases just about the time I recognize a pattern it truly is short term and quickly disappears. On friday I was seeing lots of nines for awhile. I started to consider holding a lone nine and paid attention to times I might do this. At that very moment I stopped seeing the nines. However, there are other times I've run across this situation and would have been successful by going with the pattern. It all gets back to randomness.
 
Of course, with the current IGT machines we should all know by now that the draw cards are not selected until we actually hit the draw button. Because of this we have no idea what results would have occurred had we made a different hold. It is difficult to determine whether you woud have done better or worse making a different hold although hitting several 4oaks in your case would probably be ample evidence.
 
With all that said, it's still up to the player to do whatever they want. It is their money and they have the right to make any kind of decision they feel will provide them the most enjoyment (not necessarily the best return).  In my own case I play enough that I know sticking with correct strategy will provide me with the best long term results. However, I will admit to the infrequent break from this approach (and it rarely works).
 
 

[ansoda]

Yes, I was doing it with the paying pair.
Your response makes feel better in that ramdom events tempt even the most skilled of us. I don't deviate from the strategy often, but being novice, I always wonder if its fate tempting the fool. Thanks shadow. 

[faygo]

I've been tempted many times to throw AP to the wind. However I don't know if my long ago upbringing to respect authority kicks in or what. Just about the time I get ready to pitch a pair, BD's admonition rings in my brain on what the cost is to a $1 player for not holding for the FH(DDB). It could also be the mental image of that dreaded "MAJOR ERROR"  popping up that stops me.

[wilcoxfun]

I really hate that major error popping up--just wish it would pop up at the casino so I could play the correct play!

[EDC1977]

Even minor error can be annoying when trying to achieve 99.9%. It's just trying to stay focused on the correct plays while fate tempts you during one of the many flat dry spells that comes with playing VP. Easier to give in but it doesn't always pay as most here will quickly tell us.

[MFP]

IN BP  ARE YOU SUPPOSE TO HOLD ONLY THE "ACE" OR IS THAT ONLY FOR DDB? SOMETIMES IT GETS A LITTLE CONFUSING ANY HELP ON THIS ONE... 

[shadowman]

In BP you hold only the ace if it's the only face card your dealt and you don't have anything else better (like two pair, 3RF, 3SF, 4ST, 4FL, etc.). For DDB you often throw away other face cards and keep just the ace. Not the best play in BP.