MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[onemoretry]

- No, that would be insane. You have to wait til it stops going down.

Perhaps I should mind my own business here, but I just cant't help wondering how you determine that it has stopped going down?

To me, that's the same as trying to quit a VP session when you're at your max. But, you really don't know if you are, or not.

[olds442jetaway]

To me, the market is a lot like VP with the exception that it will or at least should come back over time. VP is just straight down over time ignoring free stuff and incentives. If anybody could figure out the market in rhe short run, there would be no need for brokers or financial advisors. Those people would just buy and sell and make a living that way. On any given day, I see little difference in VP and the stock market.

[dinghy]

Listening to the NEM Newmont conference call. Earnings missed due to cost pressures. Dividend steady at $2.20 annualized. Stock price now 46.

Everyone is aghast at the costs, but no one questions the logic of gold going down during a period of inflation.

I think the miners have two ways to win. Their costs can decline as the recession takes hold. And their revenues can improve as gold finally reflects reality and resumes moving higher. Not to mention that NEM and others are forecasting higher production.

I'm suffering through multiple NEM purchases this morning, chasing it lower. I have plenty of cash now because I trimmed some bond holdings last week.

[dinghy]

To me, that's the same as trying to quit a VP session when you're at your max.

On any given day, I see little difference in VP and the stock market.

Yes, and I think participants apply similar logic to both endeavors. Typically the more dedicated participants will seek quantifiable guidelines. In the markets, this usually involves chart analysis. They'll draw a trend line based on prior extremes and then wait for price to "break out" above the trend line. Preferably on heavy volume. Because they only want to buy in an "uptrend."

Many other variations on that theme. This morning we have a collapse in the NEM price. I bought pre-market above 49, and have continued adding from there. Obviously I would be less impoverished had I waited for 46, but I did not conceive of a 12% plunge after already declining 25% within the last month. I thought the pricing had already factored in an earnings miss possibility.

What are the implications of a market where investors buy winners and sell losers? IMO it's a recipe for volatility. Popular stocks go up far in excess of reasonable valuations, and unpopular stocks do the opposite.

I look for clues from sentiment indicators. If sentiment is 100% bullish, then in theory everyone has already bought, and the stock is likely toppy. Gold sentiment is nearly 0% bullish, but it's been that way for awhile.

[dinghy]

NEM now -14%, gold -0.4%.

Recapping the NEM earnings conference call, it was pretty much the same as any other. During the scripted portion, the execs bloviated about climate change, their carbon footprint, and their love of diversity. And then during the Q&A, no one asked about any of that stuff because no one cares.

The questioners wanted to know is the dividend safe (yes), have the cost pressures peaked (partly), and will the production goals be attained (probably)?

I believe the next big miner earnings report is AEM Wednesday after the close. That'll come after the FOMC announcement. I'm also buying AEM.

[FAA]

Markets: +0.28%, +0.13%, -0.43% I was -0.03% today, or even. Usual tech portfolio liability. Friday's -0.40% a sting about 13X worse. Hedge fund titan just shorted Microsoft, so more pain is imminent.

[dinghy]

WMT Walmart -10% after-hours on a Q2 earnings miss and big (double-digit %) cuts to guidance. At 119, it's back to where it bottomed after the Q1 miss.

The market is in no mood for misses, apparently.

Edit: Sorry, not an earnings release. It was a warning. Earnings come August 16th.

[FAA]

Sure. Some DIY investors may have sold it after the Target fiasco to buy it back whenever the smoke clears. But looks like they plunged simultaneously, so they just locked in their losses. Still, managed accounts should be doing a hell of a lot of wheeling and dealing for the fees they charge. Rudimentary DCA is a simian service. Now that I see how little is actually being done, I'm liquidating at the first sign of an actual break even milestone.

[dinghy]

Sure. But DIY investors would have sold it after the Target fiasco and bought it back whenever the smoke clears.

I'm not getting your point. How do you know when the smoke clears?

Btw, I edited my post for accuracy.

[FAA]

I edited too. That wouldn't have even worked for the simple reason that they went down in flames together. Assuming a recession, I guess late next year. SP up two straight months is enough of a sign for me after this mess. Or whenever Fed halts QT.