MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[wildman49]

The rally that may or may not come should be sold if you think this chart is what's coming. Chart 4

I don't see what you see.

In chart 4 I think we are late 1973, with still a bigger drop coming in 2023.

In chart 2 it took 7 and a half years to get back to high. Guys like Olds and me don't have that many years to wait it out. I don't think we make a new high for more then 10 years. It was a bubble high, not a normal time in the market. The only time we have to look at is 73-74.

When rates rise and no free money for a decades to come.

I can be wrong if there is a change in the FED. All I have to go with is what they are saying more hikes coming. You have not seen this kind of money flowing out of the market into fix income in forever, that money will not come back. What little rally we get even if they pause will be sold.

[FAA]

-0.3%, -0.75%, -1%. I was -0.44% today. I can wait it out, but a painful few years.

[dinghy]

In chart 4 I think we are late 1973, with still a bigger drop coming in 2023.

In chart 2 it took 7 and a half years to get back to high. Guys like Olds and me don't have that many years to wait it out.

(I missed the other edit window.)

But it only took 18 months to break above the point on the chart corresponding to now. And that doesn't include the 4% dividends.

There are multiple differences between that era and now. Government debt:



The 1970s were the low point of the modern era. Today we're at a new high, previous high being the 1940s.

The year 1974 was disrupted by the Watergate scandal which was a very big deal at the time. Any similar behavior by Biden today would be covered up by the media.

I could argue that we're more likely replaying the latter 1940s. We were coming out of massive war spending. Today we're coming out of massive flu spending.

The 1946 bear was brief but similar in magnitude to the current downturn:



The inflation chart looked much like where we are now:



But history doesn't repeat. It only rhymes. My decisions are based on a range of probabilities.

As for not having many years to invest, I expect to reduce risk as I get older. If I feel my savings are reasonably adequate, I'll shift toward mostly hiding out in whatever looks safe. Presently I like VGSH and SCHO because 2-year yields are the highest on the entire Treasury curve.

[dinghy]

One thing that jumps out at me in these discussions is the disregard for international stocks. (If I were to break everything down, I probably own more international than US because my biggest gold miner holdings are Canadian.)

Long-term they've performed similarly to domestic, but owning both reduces risk. The 1970s decade was better for internationals, although I don't know about the practicality of international investing at that time, considering transaction costs.



Lately I keep looking at China because it's been such a laggy performer. But politically I'm afraid to take a significant position. I've been nibbling around the edges. Today I added more FLAX, which is about one-third China, and KWEB which is all China but internet stocks only.

[dinghy]

Some crosscurrents this week for nuclear energy, which received a tepid endorsement from St. Greta Thunberg.



She said Germany should keep nuclear plants open rather than burning coal instead.

But meanwhile, CCJ announced a dilutive acquisition using bought deal financing. Stock was -14% pre-market at its worst levels just earlier.

I keep wanting to build a big position in nuclear, but there are only two companies to buy. I already had low confidence in CCJ, and the other choice is KAP which can only be purchased on a foreign exchange. Here's how they've done lately:



It's also possible to buy an ETF that holds physical uranium, but I'd rather have equity in a company.

I'll buy CCJ today, but only below 22. (Yesterday's close was 25.82.)

[dinghy]

Got filled on my CCJ. Yay.

New position PHG Philips. Dodged a bullet because I tried to buy yesterday at a much higher price, then overnight the company warned.

PHG stock price:



Looking good!

[wildman49]

Got filled on my CCJ. Yay.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCJ?p=C ... c=fin-srch
You buy a stock with 200 PE and top line falling the last 4 years, I'll say it again you must like to lose money

[dinghy]

You buy a stock with 200 PE and top line falling the last 4 years, I'll say it again you must like to lose money

Is it 200? Thought it was higher than that.

Last time I looked at the numbers, earnings were negative so the PE was infinity or undefined, or whatever it's called.

It's a very cyclical business.

[wildman49]

Bear/short covering rally, can it run till the FOMC meeting NOV. 2nd? I piled into TSLA at 208 and change, chart over sold not sure what to do hold or cash it out. Thinking about using sell stop on 1/3 of it.

[FAA]

+2.8%, +2.6%, +2.2%. I was +0.9% today.