OTABILL wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 1:20 pm
My point again is that randomness creates oddities and with no other evidence, there is no way to prove, or disprove, the machines were programmed improperly.
I'm probably still not precisely on your wavelength. In a very technical sense, I agree that you can't "prove" unfairness by collecting play data. No matter how crazy the results, it's still possible you're just running bad. But we still have to make decisions despite our information being imperfect.
Example, some players are doubting the new machines at Soaring Eagle. What to do? If the casino has plenty of equivalent old machines, then I think it's reasonable to avoid the new ones.
But if the new machines are the only full-pay, then you have a much tougher decision. You have to think carefully about the statistical significance of your observations.
Another example, you go to Vegas on vacation and drive up to Aliante. They have a daily free kiosk swipe with two possible hidden prizes. You pick the one on the left and win $5. The prize on the right is revealed to have been $5,000.
Next day you go back and again win 5 instead of 5000.
What do you? Do you keep driving up every day? Do you postpone your flight home?
You can't prove the swipe is rigged, but I think that would be the logical conclusion.