MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Only had one home run back in the 1990s. JDSUniphase. Bought really low got out way too soon, but still a big winner.

I've had big winners that I bought for 5 or 10, but not very many that I pulled out of the gutter.

NGD New Gold is a big position for me currently. In 2022, it traded all the way down to near 0.60, and is now up to 3.39. I was buying at 0.60, but also much higher than that.

I'm now holding several stocks priced near 1. Substantial positions include IAUX I-80 Gold (0.63), and ASPS Altisource (0.86).

[olds442jetaway]

I picked up a few shares of IBM. I have a feeling a Trump deal to keep business in the States may have been made. In the meantime, I’ll collect the 3 percent div and cash out if I can pick up 10 percent on it in addition. Market in general still struggling over earnings and the usual uncertainty.

[FAA]

IBM. Look at you making moves!

[FAA]

Solid day on the Street. My rotten Apple recouped $40 since its nadir. Only $35 in the hole.

[olds442jetaway]

Apple will be fine long term. If it’s good enough for Mr Buffett, it’s good enough for me. I own a bunch of it by default in my 403b and the Berkshire shares I recently bought. IBM is out of the gate and starting to run. I’m only looking for an infield single and I’m out. The pressure on Trump by big business must be incredible. He’s changing his Executive orders faster than his golf outfit of the day. Another big one today on SSA overpayments. Pressure from all sides. I still am glad he’s in there draining the swamp. Anytime you have both the stock and bond market both going down, that’s big trouble. I think things will settle down in the market. Not sure about world peace though. I’ve got to watch it. Buying too many stocks lately. I still want to be 80 percent cash as long as I can still get 4 percent. That’s of course mostly age related.

[olds442jetaway]

Ice cold start due to retraction of the economy in the first quarter, but it’s creeping back already. Another wait and see day for me. As usual, a pogo stick reaction to one news headline.

[dinghy]

Apple will be fine long term. If it’s good enough for Mr Buffett, it’s good enough for me. I own a bunch of it by default in my 403b and the Berkshire shares I recently bought.

It isn't good enough for Mr Buffett. He has drastically reduced his position. I view the stock as very risky long term because it trades near historically high PEs while revenue and earnings have decelerated. It hasn't been innovating recently. It's a US company selling internationally manufactured products internationally. I'm not sure that's a sustainable model as Trump stirs up anti-US hostilities.

Buffett is not someone I necessarily want to emulate anyway. If I saw correctly, Berkshire stock has been an unremarkable investment the last 10 to 15 years. You could have just bought SPY or VTI instead. I don't know that Buffett is still making the decisions. And if I glance at his political viewpoints, he's appalling.

Pressure from all sides. I still am glad he’s in there draining the swamp.

Trump is not draining the swamp. Federal spending will only increase during his current term, as it did during his previous term.

I think things will settle down in the market.

I don't know what that means, but I probably disagree with it .

[olds442jetaway]

That’s ok. Thats what opinions are for I don’t follow Buffetts politics. I’m just looking at their track record this year in a down year. As to Apple, He sold because he was heavily overweighted in Apple around 53 percent if I remember and wanted to go to a lot of cash as well. Apple is still Berkshires largest holding. Around 25 percent last time I checked. I did a wait and see all day and finally added 10 more shares of IBM. Looks like Trump may give them the contract to overhaul the antiquated air traffic control system. At least partly them. I picked up a couple of more points seconds after I bought it. Just checked and AAPL is now 28 percent in Berkshire. It’s having a nice steady climb back up.

[olds442jetaway]

The BKR-b chart over the last 10 years looks good to me compared to SPY. The SPY chart hasn’t even tripled and Berkshire has come close to quadrupling. I think about 3.7 times the price 10 years ago. Also ytd, Berkshire is up and Spy is not. VTI is up just a bit less over the last 10 years than SPY.

[dinghy]

Just checked and AAPL is now 28 percent in Berkshire.

In the first three quarters of 2024, Berkshire slashed its AAPL position from 900m shares to 300m. That's not a vote of confidence imo.

On the other hand, I don't see any further selling for Q4, so maybe Berkshire is done selling. But we have no information beyond 2024. Next 13F update will come mid-May, bringing us up to speed through end of March 2025.

Also as I understand, we're only discussing Berkshire's investment portfolio. The company also owns stuff that isn't publicly traded.

The BKR-b chart over the last 10 years looks good to me compared to SPY.

Are you factoring in dividends? Because BKR-b doesn't pay any.

VTI is up just a bit less over the last 10 years than SPY.

Indeed. Big caps were the big winners.