MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Happily, my Canadian stocks don't seem to have reacted much to the Carney victory. Of course he was widely expected to win, and I think the conservatives got enough votes to give them some negotiating leverage.

[olds442jetaway]

I didn’t consider the 1.28 percent SPY dividends, but that’s a small amount compared to the difference in performance. Yes, Buffett controls other stuff too. Just considering overall performance. Anyway all 3 have done well over the last 10 years. Going forward is what I’m trying to get a handle on. With the wacky fake news headlines every day, that’s not easy. For instance one major media outlet posted a headline for today Market “ tumbles “ hours after the market had already come back close to even. Some of their favorite buzzwords can really affect the market one way or the other. Very few including wealth and fund managers, read details below the headlines. But We Do !!

[dinghy]

Going forward is what I’m trying to get a handle on.

I can't confirm the data accuracy, but according to the stockcharts dot com performance chart, BRK/B lagged both SPY and VTI for the 17-year period from 2008 to year-end 2024. Berkshire was <400% total return, whereas the others were >450%.

But Berkshire is enjoying a phenomenal 2025. According to morningstar, BRK.B is +18% YTD, vs -5% for the others.

Your Berkshire purchases near year-end 2024 were brilliantly timed. I would hesitate to buy now. This growth spurt is unprecedented except possibly in the very distant past. There's a risk of the stock reverting to the mean.

[olds442jetaway]

Agree. I didn’t look back past 10 years, but for the last 10, the charts I posted speak for themselves on percentages of gains. At this point, I’m going to have to stay on tip toes. We never know what the next condensed headline will bring sometimes we just have to guess.

[olds442jetaway]

Now up 1 percent for the year, not great, but at this point I will take it. It’s not from stocks though as I’m 80 percent cash still at 4 percent and all the divs go to the money market so they can also earn 4 percent. Percentage wise, I better stay about where I am on allocation. I’m hoping Vale will go up soon, but at this point, I’ll have to wait and collect the good dividends. Wish they were more frequent, I guess they are set up for twice a year.

[dinghy]

Reloading my AGI.

[olds442jetaway]

I read their report Down on cash some etc. what do you think about their PE?

[OSCEOLASTEVE]

More than. Closed all accounts on Jan. 20.
Its going to crash. Hard. Transfer to self sustainment and security. SHTF is coming probably by summers end. Prepare. FAFO.
(IMHO)
Good luck.

[olds442jetaway]

I have a crystal ball too, but it just laughs at me.

[dinghy]

what do you think about their PE?

AGI trades at a premium to its peers, but for good reason. Production is growing sharply, while costs decrease. Last year's production was 567k oz. The company projects 700k by 2027.

Proven and probable reserves were recently updated to 14m oz, a big jump from the previous estimate.

It's hard to assess exact reasons for today's selling. The numbers looked bad in part because only 117.5k oz were sold, while 125k were produced. But that's a dumb reason to sell because those revenues will be realized in Q2.

Gold itself is pulling back, possibly because China is into a one-week holiday closure.

On this morning's open, I started buying at 25, and continued blasting down to 24 within a half-hour. From there, the stock rebounded a little to finish at 25.73. I've now had a chance to view the conference call transcript, which encourages me further. This was a special statement from CEO John McCluskey at the end, after the Q&A finished:

I just wanted to say in conclusion that we have a long history of meeting or exceeding our guidance and we take pride in that record. I think it’s at least five years where we’ve either met or exceeded guidance. So coming in at the low end of production and higher on costs, it’s not illustrative of our track record and it’s not indicative of our expected performance for 2025. We’re already on track for a much stronger second quarter and further improvement in the second half of the year.

And furthermore, if you take a look at our three year outlook, it continues to demonstrate that we’re going to have further growth in production and further declines in costs. So our outlook, it looks better than ever. So from that point of view, as a management team, we remain very confident in what we’re doing. We saw the market reaction this morning to the quarterly results. We think it’s certainly overdone.

We have a strong year in front of us. We’ve come through a tough quarter, stronger quarters lie ahead and we’re very, very confident in our ability to deliver on that.