MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Losers:

NFE New Fortress -93%
KOS Kosmos -58
LULU Lululemon -55
HUN Huntsman -48
VTLE Vital -43
DOW -39
UNH United -35
BAX Baxter -35
LYB Lyondell -34
ATUS Optimum -26

[FAA]

Two decent trades last week. I bought six JNJ at $186. I bought two more Microsoft at a mere $499.

[olds442jetaway]

MSFT already up 10 or so. Time will tell if their huge AI project will pan out. JNJ way up for the year. More to go? At least a decent Div. 2.6 or so.

[olds442jetaway]

Hmmmmm, Trump bought over the last few months over 82 million in bonds. That tells me pressure on the Fed to continue to lower interest rates will continue. Bad for CDs and Money Market. Good for Bonds. One reason I have been loading up on high dividend stocks and funds for over a year. That said, the world is so nuts with things going on I guess anything could happen. I’ve also been adding to miners to use in trades and food related stocks hoping for a comeback and dividends of 4 percent or more while I wait. Almost no Mag 7 held individually.

[wildman49]

Hmmmmm, Trump bought over the last few months over 82 million in bonds. That tells me pressure on the Fed to continue to lower interest rates will continue.

Trump wants Fed rate of 1% this could happen next year once he puts in new Fed head to replace Powell. Bonds will be the place to be.

This market has all the feel of 2000-2001 right now all rally's being sold, Bitcoin in crash zone.

[dinghy]

We're all agreed that Trump wants near-zero rates (because he's a simpleton), and probably has sufficient power to get them.

In general, the "long end" (orange line) has behaved calmly.



The risk however is that the Fed "loses the long end" -- i.e., Fed cuts blue line to 1%, but long durations spike to 6 or 7.

Afaik, the only prior analogy is the 1940s. To restrain yields at all durations, the gov conducted yield curve control. Rates were artificially capped in the 2% area, while price inflation raged.



Add 80 to the years shown, and you have a possible current-decade scenario. 1941-2 is similar to the 2021-2 Covid reaction. Then we would get another jolt of price inflation into the middle of Trump's term.

I think YCC will be attempted, which is why I like TLT. But YCC has been done many times in many countries, and usually fails.

[dinghy]

Some good news from Chile. The idiot communist got the most votes at 27%, but her major opponents were all right-wing. Jose Kast opposes her in the runoff, and is the presumed winner at 95% probability on Polymarket.

ECH Chile ETF is +4%, and I'm up big on my SQM which is +12% today. Now taking some profits on both, but it's nice to see South America moving away from mental illness (while the US embraces it).

[olds442jetaway]

Yep. Another one elected in Seattle.

[dinghy]

Another one elected in Seattle.

Before people lost their minds, plain women were encouraged to become nuns -- where they couldn't do any harm.