RNG Experiment

[damule]

     In 2008 I conducted a year long experiment to test the approximate accuracy of the random number generator in video poker machines. I played $1,050,000 solely through vp machines at Harrah's properties in Nevada and Arizona. I tracked this with my total rewards card. Harrah's awards 1 tier credit for every $10 played through a VP machine, thusly I earned 105,000 tier credits earning a Seven Stars Club Card.   
     I played various games, mostly deuces wild and DDB, often on Supertimes Pay machines with 3-5-10 multiplay. My average bet per hand would range between $6 to $18 depending on denomination and multiple hands played. I implore mostly perfect basic strategy, but there are times when I've erred but nothing significant. Most of the pay schedules had somewhere between 96.77% to 98.98% return. I figured a plus/minus 1-2% variance would occur depending on luck. Obviously if I were to be dealt a RF with a 10x multiplier on Supertimes 10-play quarters for $100,000 it may alter those results somewhat, but unfortunately that did not happen - not even close.
 
     Surprisingly, here on Jan 1st, Harrah's already had my year-end statement available on their website. Final figure for the year: lost $43,649. That equates to a return of 95.84%. Obviously not what I hoped for, but considering I am not an expert like a Bob Dancer, and I probably erred occasionally on close hands, and I was not lucky enough to have a dream-hand dealt these results are well within the variance that I expected.
 
     I read this forum daily and have over the past several months read posts doubting the validity of the RNG. Take it from me, it is accurate and the casinos are not messing with it. Look, even with my skill level, they still beat me for over $40k...I could never use enough free rooms, eat enough free meals, and enjoy enough free spa treatments in a years time to even that loss out. There are enough players out there that do not know how to play properly and the casinos are doing just fine due to them. For example, a couple of weeks ago a lady sitting next to me was playing deuces wild and she would hold an Ace with a Deuce, the casinos don't need to cheat! My end results have proven to me, and hopefully any doubters out there, that the RNG is ligit and the casinos are not altering the program to win more money. In another post I attached pictures from a two-hour period where I drew 3 Royals...if the results weren't random that would never happen.
 
     Although the pay schudules at Harrah's are definitely at the lower end, the reason why I chose them is the ease of tracking with the Total Rewards Card, the reward credits and bonus credits add up fast and are easy to utilize, and mainly because I live in Phoenix where there is a Harrah's casino so I didn't have to trudge to Vegas every couple weeks.
 
     Although I did lose over $40k this year at Harrah's, I was wise enough to play at Stations Casinos and The Palms when in Vegas at higher denominations with excellent pay schedules where I had fair to good fortune to offset some of the loses. Although for the year I was down, I did learn alot and I proved to myself that I can play these games with full confidence that the pay schedule and the skill level are the most important factors when trying to be successful at video poker. If you enjoy the game (I love it) be confident that the casinos are honest - the expected return is printed on the screen, hope for luck and have fun.

[Lucky Larry]

damule,
I concur with your statement re: casino's not having to worry about players beating the house. I have this argument with my favorite casino slot director frequently. I try to convince him (since he doesn't play/know VP) that he is making a ton off of the majority of VP players and by keeping the pay table high he will get more quality players, which will also increase his take, not reduce it, as more people will play.

I sat by an elderly lady last night that played (multi-hand 5¢). The machine had a fairly good streak for DW. She sat next to me with some idea how to play and said her brother played this game a single hand at a time. Her $100 became over $300 as she played and was dealt repeated Deuces. She continued to play max (50 hands) holding all deuces with some flush, Deuce + A, etc. After a short time the script changed and she started going down. Soon she was out! She put in another $100 and decided to play DWB which I was playing after I hit a RF. Without a clue to the different strategy or game's streakiness she went through the money playing 50 hands while I would play much less depending on the streak and often switching between DW & DWB. Another $100 and she continued until she asked why I was hitting (now a second RF on DW) and her machine was taking her money. Since I was asked, I took time to explain to her that she was probably better off playing DW and playing fewer hands. I also suggested several sources where she could learn to correctly play VP. She would sometimes wait for me to play a hand and ask advice but continued to play 50. She soon left having lost her gain of $300 and down an additional $200. This type of play is typical of most players who are not regulars. While the house advantage may only be 3-5% these players often make it 30-50% because they don't know how to play.

We also play at the Station Casinos and this past visit to LV we played at the Palms and loved it.

Good Luck this year.

LL

[scorpio2]

damule,i am not an xpert,but love to read articles like your rng experiment.i haven't read anywhere that the percentages are over one year for the casino machines,even though we're taxed on one year.once you left that machine,next person might hit rf on it immediately.guess that's why dancer plays forever,and Fa La La La La.... La la la la says to move on after $200 dollar profit.we have to choose which way to try at each casino visit.

[shadowman]

Along with overall results I have tracked some specific hands as well. The answer is always the same. They track the expected probabilities pretty close. However, occasionally I have seen some pretty far out streaks both good and bad. But, eventually, the streak comes to an end and normal probabilities return. This is as good a way as possible to prove to oneself that VP is fair over the long haul.
 
My wife and I just finished another profitable year. We play only positive opportunities so that is exactly what we expect.

[scorpio2]

i wonder what one starts with,to put a million dollars through a casino,in a year.is it 10,000 dollars,or does one start at one million?also once you've got enough freebies,you could move on,or quit.it gets quite boring to eat at same restaurants,play in same casino,etc. for a week,don't know about a whole year.i know at diamond status,harrahs,about all you get is a free meal,which isn't tha great.don't know what a 7 stars benefet is.

[cddenver]

i wonder what one starts with,to put a million dollars through a casino,in a year.is it 10,000 dollars,or does one start at one million?
 
It's not necessary to have a million to get a million in total play.
 
Small example:  Put a $20 in a quarter single play machine.   At $1.25 a hand, after 80 hands you've got $100 in total play.   Assuming a play rate of about 800 hands an hour, those 80 hands take about 6 minutes.  $1,000 in total play would take about an hour, with (probably) more $20's being popped in.
 
For $1M in total play you have to scale up those numbers, of course.

[scorpio2]

i see,so a thousand hours to put 1,000,000.00 dollars through like bob dancer does.

[cddenver]

i see,so a thousand hours to put 1,000,000.00 dollars through like bob dancer does.
 
A thousand hours for quarter single line; $1 single line would take about 250 hours; 5-play quarters about 200 hours, etc.
 
You don't need to be a Bob Dancer to get $1M in total play over a year.  I'm sure we've got many $1 players on the site who hit that $1M in total play every year.  I'm mainly a quarters single line player and I hit $1M in total play every few years, depending on how much $.50, $1, $2 play I get in as well.
 
The important part of the play isn't the $1M total, it's how much of that is profit or loss.  And that's where the information from people like Bob Dancer and others (books, software) becomes important.  A game with a 99% return sounds pretty good, but that 1% in dollars going to the house goes up as total play goes up - $100 in total play = $1, $1000 = $10, $100K = $1000.  That's why casinos don't need to mess with the RNG; randomness and negative return paytables are all that's necessary for them to stay open. 

[shadowman]

I think scorpio2 is thinking about bankroll.
This is an interesting subject and important to any serious gambler. As CD mentioned it doesn't take long to put a million dollars through a machine at high denoms. I put a couple million through the machines every year and I almost never play more than $ denoms. Professionals may play $5 10-play given the right bankroll and ER. That's $250 a hand. At 800 deals/hour it would only take 5 hours to put a million through the machine.
 
The problem is that would only be 40K hands total. It would not be uncommon to see a return of only 95% in this amount of time. That would be a loss of $50K. That is why one needs to compute bankroll before trying to make their fortune at VP.

[damule]

i wonder what one starts with,to put a million dollars through a casino,in a year.is it 10,000 dollars,or does one start at one million?also once you've got enough freebies,you could move on,or quit.it gets quite boring to eat at same restaurants,play in same casino,etc. for a week,don't know about a whole year.i know at diamond status,harrahs,about all you get is a free meal,which isn't tha great.don't know what a 7 stars benefet is.
 
Scorpio,
 
     Honestly, I didn't start the year expecting to do this...after a couple of strong sessions in March and April I realized that I had the opportunity to reach Seven Stars and figured this would be a good incentive to do so. And, I didn't start with a set budget. I really hoped I would hit a dream hand along the way for $40-100k, but that never happened. I realized probably in September that I was going to lose close to $40 large at Harrah's properties on this experiment and that's when I started playing heavily at The Palms, Red Rock and Green Valley. I won over $20k at those casinos in the last 4 months of the year. This even further proves to play where the best pay tables are and you'll be rewarded in time.
 
     Depending on luck, one would probably have to budget $50-100 grand to play $1,000,000 through and still be standing I'd estimate. To give you some specifics, I went to Vegas in March for a week with $3500 and came home with $7000. In April I went for 3 days with $4000 and came back with $6000. In June I spent a week in Tahoe and a weekend in Vegas (10-day vacation) and lost $20k of the $30k I alotted for the 10 days. I lost $12k in one night in July at Harrah's outside of Phoenix, but won $10k over the next 2 weekends at the same casino.
 
     All in all, results varied significantly from trip to trip, even session to session. That's why I decided to track it over the course of a year and this is what I came out with. I can say this: I will take advantage of my Seven Stars spiffs over the next year with Harrah's (meals, rooms, etc) but I will only play significantly at machines that have expected returns of at least 98.98% (9/6 DDB) or higher from now on. This will be the only way to avert major loses over time and to come close to even with the players club frills factored in.
 
     And so far, the only additional benefit I'm aware of for Seven Stars is a $500 free meal in Vegas. I don't think the hosts view a low Seven Stars player any differently then a high Diamond player, at least I haven't seen a difference yet. But I'll keep everyone posted.