Is DANCER right?

[kjohn]

I've been playing VP for years and learned on the first Dancer CD.  Now I
have the newer model and find some plays, when in the advanced mode, just don't
see logical...Here they are and I hope someone can help me decide weather to use
his strategy or not....
Playing DDB triple play...these are the hands where I disagree with
Dancer:  C-club  H-heart  S-spade  D-diamond
 
K (c)  Q (s) 8 (s) 9 (s)  J (h)
 
I would usually hold the KQJ  but Dancer goes for the inside straight 
Holds the K Q 9 J   
 
2 (d) 3 (h)  10 (h)  K (h)  9 (c) 
 
I would just hold the K   Dancer holds the 3 10 K going for a flush
 
10 (h)  J (h)  K (d)  3 (c) 5 (c)   I hold the two high cards  K J  Dancer
holds the J 10.
 
These are the hands I seem to mess up on the most.  I just don't have any
luck trying his angle....Please advise on the WHY of his decisions....

[shadowman]

You should look at the possbile winning draws, add them up and divide by the number of possible draws. That is all the computer program is doing. In the latter two of these cases the average win for your choice and the "best" choice is very close and your overall return will not be influenced by these kind of errors. The first one is much bigger.
 
Here's a break down of your first example.
 
KQJ9 - 4 straights (20 credits each), 9 high pairs (5 credits each). A total of 125 credits divided by 47 possible draws yields an average of 2.66.
 
KQJ - 28 straights (20), 9 3oaks (15), 27 two pair (5), 348 high paris (5). A total of 2570 divided by 1081 yields 2.38. (keep in mind, discarding the 9 reduces the number of possible straights)
 
So, you are not really disagreeing with Dancer. You are disagreeing with simple math. Once you do the math yourself it puts a new perspective on this type of discussion. It no longer has anything to do with Dancer or whatever program you are using.
 
As always, it's your money and your choice how you use it.
 
EDIT: One other thing to keep in mind. In the first case you will win 9/47 of the time (19%). In the second case you will win 348/1081 of the time (32%). In other words you will end up with a winner more often in the lower return situation. This can often skew one's thinking.

[faygo]

I have WinPoker6 and the plays you decribe are what he showed on that version. Guess there must have been a 1-5 version. Man I got to start ahead of the curve. Now if only the cards would cooperate.
SM , as usual, a great review of the issue, just wondered what the French have to do with it. 
 

[kjohn]

Thanks for the info.  I'll do a bit more practicing before heading to Vegas
and see how I do....I'll have to retrain my eyes and play slower...I think those
are the most difficult plays...I seem to do the others right on.  I may have
more question so stay tuned

[shadowman]

SM , as usual, a great review of the issue, just wondered what the French have to do with it. 
That's easy. Those who live in high paris always follow correct strategy. Those who live in low paris often use special plays.

[kjohn]

When playing the Dancer CD what's the difference between playing Perfect
Play as opposed to Strategy????  I do a lot better on the intermediate
level...Hit about 98% there...Overall if you only get tripped up on the few
plays that seem to deal with straights I would imagine that you would still do
OK.  You won't miss a RF, SF, FH, or 4K with those hands.  I still like to go
for the "A" when you have the big bonus that DDB gives.  I hit it so many times
holding just the A and nothing else.  I never hold A 2 3 or A24  same suit...Hit
three royals last time at RR so must be either lucky or doing something
right....Hey, SM I need you to come to Vegas and stand over me at RR the end of
this month...

[shadowman]

It won't be tough for me to get to Vegas. I live in Henderson.
 
When hands appear infrequently the errors on those hands will have little impact on your overall return. OTOH, small errors on frequent hands can add up pretty quickly. Another thing to keep in mind.
 
In my case I almost always play proper strategy. Of course living here and playing several times a week makes that much more important. Even infrequent hands occur frequently for me.

[scorpio2]

was it oej that said the casinos give people 4x,9x,25x credits on vp to get them to the casino like dancer,then tighten the machines on those days.

[kjohn]

So the Shadow lives in Henderson...Green Valley territory...We're staying there one night and then two at RR.   SO in March we are flying west again and we will be joining my sis and hubby.  They a just play slots on the strip and since we always rent a car we are going to introduce them to GV and RR.  Any other PRETTY, CLASSY off strip places you might suggest....I agree with you on the hands that come up seldom.  I play the majority almost perfect and I'll ponder those that jump out at me with a ? and do better on those.   Any particular area you play in at GV.  I know the lay out better than my own house....