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what are the odds?
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chuck arl
- Senior Member
- Posts: 107
- Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:39 am
what are the odds?
i've got pretty good short term memory, especially when i play v.p. so this happened to me recently: i had a hand considered to be a RAZGU, which is throw em' all away. The new draw resulted in the same 5 value cards coming back! What would be the true odds of that happening ?----Charles Arlington----
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Not too difficult to compute (now I'll probably screw it up). You have a total of 1533939 possible redeals (47 C 5). Let's assume you had 24689 dealt. There are 3 more of each card that can combine with the other cards to form your resultant hand. So, discounting the possible flush results, you have 3**5 = 243. 1533939/243 = 6312. Of course, in many games you toss 5 cards infrequently which would make the average cycle time for this 6312*(RAZGU frequency). Since I don't know the game you were playing you'll have to fill in the appropriate frequency. More likely than you thought?
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Webman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 5148
- Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:11 pm
I've had it happen in draw poker (REAL cards) throwing away all 5 cards, so probably about the same odds.
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chuck arl
- Senior Member
- Posts: 107
- Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:39 am
was just curious about that possability, by the way i had foure of kind 4's dealt to me in triple play double double. When i went to draw the possible kicker card, i recv'd the same exact 5th card on all three games! an 8 of clubs. The Gaming Today newspaper listed that possibility at over 100,000 to 1 !!!----Charles Arlington
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
was just curious about that possability, by the way i had foure of kind 4's dealt to me in triple play double double. When i went to draw the possible kicker card, i recv'd the same exact 5th card on all three games! an 8 of clubs. The Gaming Today newspaper listed that possibility at over 100,000 to 1 !!!----Charles Arlington
Gaming today is notoriously careless in the things they print. Although sort of correct (1/47)**3, it is correct only if you specify the 8 of clubs ahead of time. If the first card could be any card but a kicker card and the next two are duplicates, then the odds are (35/47)(1/47)**2 or 2966 to 1.
I once had a sequential RF dealt to me with the odds of that being over 38 million to one. I know a person who hit all three lines on a triple play with a one card draw to make a RF (this is 103823 to 1) only this time it worked in the players favor.
Everyone sees unlikely events now and then.
Gaming today is notoriously careless in the things they print. Although sort of correct (1/47)**3, it is correct only if you specify the 8 of clubs ahead of time. If the first card could be any card but a kicker card and the next two are duplicates, then the odds are (35/47)(1/47)**2 or 2966 to 1.
I once had a sequential RF dealt to me with the odds of that being over 38 million to one. I know a person who hit all three lines on a triple play with a one card draw to make a RF (this is 103823 to 1) only this time it worked in the players favor.
Everyone sees unlikely events now and then.
