RNG Experiment

[rolanddude]

I never once said it was true or not.  He's chasing this theory on his own time and dime (or nickel to be exact so as not to confuse any math).  So I say go for it.  And Shadow...I have tried not to show disrespect in my original posts to anyone...and now twice you've told me how silly, or foolish I am.  Do you really have that much disdain for the man.  I'm surprised that if you think he is such a basket case that you actually started tracking it yourself.  Hmmmm.That tells me that you pay more attention to him than you would care to admit. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not a smart guy.  After all, I've just as much been labeled a disciple of the "False Prophet" of video poker by you, a very respected math/adv player on this sight.  No one will ever listen to me again.  All I know is what I've done using the man's "many" strategies.  They're fun to play, easy to learn, and like I said earlier he told me to use them only if I wanted to.  Until I lose...I'll continue to use them.  Do you ever lose a session Shadow?  Is perfect math always a winner from day to day.  (not across millenium  like all math averages play out)  In my humbling years of playing only 100+% machines perfectly (this not so smart elixer drinker plays at a rate of one mistake every 5000 hands on Dancer's program on mixed difficulty) I had lots and lots of BIG losing sessions.  So what's the difference...I'm in a streak...don't jinx it please hehe!!

[shadowman]

I never once said it was true or not.  He's chasing this theory on his own time and dime (or nickel to be exact so as not to confuse any math).  So I say go for it.  And Shadow...I have tried not to show disrespect in my original posts to anyone...and now twice you've told me how silly, or foolish I am. 
 
 
That is an untrue statement. I stated the entire concept of 58% repeats is silly. That has nothing to do with you. However, if you continue to repeat this assertion without testing it yourself, then I would have a harsher term for your actions.
 
 
Do you really have that much disdain for the man.  I'm surprised that if you think he is such a basket case that you actually started tracking it yourself.  Hmmmm.
That tells me that you pay more attention to him than you would care to admit.
 
I put almost no effort in it. All I did was notice how often repeats occured vs. not. It takes only a few minutes to see they are not occurring 58% of the time. I mentioned this to demonstrate to other players that this statement is an outright lie that they can test for themsleves. Once you do this test yourself you will understand. Let me know when you've tried it.

 Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not a smart guy.  After all, I've just as much been labeled a disciple of the "False Prophet" of video poker by you, a very respected math/adv player on this sight.  No one will ever listen to me again.  All I know is what I've done using the man's "many" strategies.  They're fun to play, easy to learn, and like I said earlier he told me to use them only if I wanted to.  Until I lose...I'll continue to use them.  Do you ever lose a session Shadow?  Is perfect math always a winner from day to day.  (not across millenium  like all math averages play out)  In my humbling years of playing only 100+% machines perfectly (this not so smart elixer drinker plays at a rate of one mistake every 5000 hands on Dancer's program on mixed difficulty) I had lots and lots of BIG losing sessions.  So what's the difference...I'm in a streak...don't jinx it please hehe!!

 
Like I said, I have no problem with anyone using a progression. Just don't expect it to lead to anything profitable over time unless you play correct strategy on positive games. For me, I lose more sessions than I win. I also win money every year. Both of these are predicted by simple mathematics applied to VP and my choices of the games I play.
 
Your mention of "false prophet" is very interesting. Pretty descriptive too. VP is a simple game from a mathematical standpoint. When someone makes claims that are in disagreement with very simple mathematics then using the term "false" is the mathematically correct description. 
 

[rolanddude]

shadow,His assertion (not mine) is that on hands that are dealt 4 to a winner (outside straight, 4 to a flush, two pair going for the boat...etc) for him the single line games are producing this result far above the mathematical probability at Harrah's properties and a few others recently.  Don't scream the earth is flat when someone is trying to prove otherwise until he is done with his research...that proved to be a huge mistake for the math and science people only a few generations ago.  The threads assertion of what a nut Rob is was what I was clearing up by explaining what he is doing and why...I only get to play 4 trips per year...I will never again wait on the math to catch up with me...EVER.   I was down over 30 grand in 6 years playing perfectly...hours upon hours for three nights in a row each trip.  I could, I guess, feel good about playing perfectly (which I did).  Short term quick hit strategies, no matter who's, suit me better for my limited play time.   I look forward to trying to dive into that fertile part of the "math-zone" when I visit LV.   I randomly try to land on a machine that is ready (haha ala Dancer) as long as the two games I will play (BP & TBP) have a paytable of 98% or above.  It is alot more fun to do this than spend all day getting mad at a machine for not falling in line with the math while someone three machines over wins a jackpot on a "terrible" machine that I would never play.   Hogwash!!  I will never again lose 30k waiting on "mathematical laws" to suddenly swoop down from the sky and save my poor addicted soul.  Short term...Short sessions...LONG on the FUN FACTOR.

[shadowman]

shadow,

His assertion (not mine) is that on hands that are dealt 4 to a winner (outside straight, 4 to a flush, two pair going for the boat...etc) for him the single line games are producing this result far above the mathematical probability at Harrah's properties and a few others recently.  Don't scream the earth is flat when someone is trying to prove otherwise until he is done with his research...that proved to be a huge mistake for the math and science people only a few generations ago.  The threads assertion of what a nut Rob is was what I was clearing up by explaining what he is doing and why...
 
Sorry, it only takes a few minutes to determine the assertion is wrong. Keeping 5 cards happens quite often. Within a half hour almost anyone could prove to themselves the assertion is false. Playing 20K+ hands and seeing 58% (as your buddy has claimed) repeats is pure nonsense. I hear they have casinos in Florida, why not try a few nickels or pennies and see for yourself. Do you really want to be spreading false information? Once you find out the answer then ask yourself why anyone would make such a ridiculous claim.

I only get to play 4 trips per year...I will never again wait on the math to catch up with me...EVER.   I was down over 30 grand in 6 years playing perfectly...hours upon hours for three nights in a row each trip.  I could, I guess, feel good about playing perfectly (which I did).  Short term quick hit strategies, no matter who's, suit me better for my limited play time.   I look forward to trying to dive into that fertile part of the "math-zone" when I visit LV.   I randomly try to land on a machine that is ready (haha ala Dancer) as long as the two games I will play (BP & TBP) have a paytable of 98% or above.  It is alot more fun to do this than spend all day getting mad at a machine for not falling in line with the math while someone three machines over wins a jackpot on a "terrible" machine that I would never play.   Hogwash!!  I will never again lose 30k waiting on "mathematical laws" to suddenly swoop down from the sky and save my poor addicted soul.  Short term...Short sessions...LONG on the FUN FACTOR.

 
So, you play BP and TDB ... both negative expectation games ... is that what you played for 6 years?
 
Assuming it wasn't, it sounds like you played a total of 72 times. That would be less than a typical quarter (3 months) for me unless you played a lot of hands each day. Last year I had 4 losing months and 8 winning months. However, two of the losing months were consecutive. Probably around 200K hands.
 
Why do people think they should be lucky right away? Some will be, some won't be.
 
FYI, I lost the first 5.5 months (Aug. '98 - mid-Jan '99) I started advantage playing so your results are not at all surprising. I had very poor luck. OTOH, I understand that I had ONLY played around 220K hands in that time. Since then I've had only one losing year, but I did have one so obviously there is no guarantee that advantage play will always win.
 
I'm always a little confused when someone mentions "FUN". Isn't that why you were playing before? It's always more "FUN" to win than to lose but I don't understand why you were playing if it wasn't any "FUN".
 

[rolanddude]

Shadow,First, I am not spreading false info.  I have just reported what he is doing and why. (since some were poking ridiculous accusations that he could only afford a nickel at a time)  His findings will have to stand on its own.Second, your assumption is correct...I only played full pay deuces until they all but disappeared. At Harrah's Properties in LV  it was DDB.  When playing, I would average about 800 hands per hour as figured by base comp points 10=1 point.(I play faster at home but I guess with the waitress, coffee, bathroom, wife, etc. that was accurate)  I would play like the devil...all morning (6am-10am) then eat if I could (my stomach was sometimes fooled into believing it didn't need food) then play all evening and night (5pm-2am) sometimes more.   I was a serious addict while in Vegas, chasing that nirvana caused by math & perfect play expectations.  Again you proved my point,  at just shy of 142k hands per year it is not enough most of the time for the math to even out. (referring to 5.5 months , ONLY 220k hands before it turned around for you in '99)Since I have reformed my play I do have alot MORE fun enjoying the comps that come with being a Diamond Player instead of playing in the forsaken casino all day when I do come to town.The only casino close  to me (2 hours) is Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa.  They have very few VP machines and they are lined up 3 deep for a turn to play on machines that you have to play a "bingo" game every hand to make it legal.  At least that's how it was when I visited early last year.After I fully recover from Hodgkin's Disease (which is soon according to my doc) I am planning my next trip.  Harrah's Laughlin called me today with 2 free tickets on their Orlando charter in April.  I explained my situation and he told me he would offer the same for May and June.  I just might take him up on both of those.  I hear Laughlin's fun there on the River.  Fishing, jet skiing, etc.  I'll have time to do all that since I won't allow myself to wait on the Simple Math in the casino anymore.   Here is my Simple Math....  6 X (5000)= (30000)  that's negative dollars.  I guess I did not do bad considering the comps earned and it could have been alot worse with my play level.  But it in no way justifies 30 Grand...  Yes, the fun I have NOW is alot better than the fun I thought I was having then.respectfully,Joe

[damule]

.

Second, your assumption is correct...I only played full pay deuces until they disappeared at Harrah's Properties in LV then it was DDB. 
 
I've been playing at Harrah's in Vegas for the past 12 years and have been a Diamond and now Seven Stars player and I have never seen FP Deuces at a Harrah's property, never. As a matter of fact, I think I've only seen a handful of NSUD Deuces at a Harrah's property in that time, and they've always been very high limits ($5/10 machines).

[shadowman]

Mule, you beat me to it. It had to be a long, long time ago ... or ... maybe never.

[rolanddude]

Guys,I didn't play ALL the time at Harrahs those six years because I chased the math...I would seek out deuces where I could find them when I stayed there. At Harrah's or the Rio I lost at the DDB single line $1 machines.  Again...literally a labyrinth of "I Gotcha"s that I have to wade through around here.  I am humbled.  Nonetheless, I lost at FP or Not So Ugly Deuces and DDB!!  Harrah's enjoyed most of my money.  The Wynn was nice a couple years ago.  So was the Mirage.  They both got some of the 30k.  So did The Orleans and the Palms.  Even where the green dice roll at Fitz's downtown.  Thanks for clarifying to everyone that Harrah's has terrible deuces games...unique payback schedule...JoePS I've corrected the previous post.

[shadowman]

13 hours a day at 800 hands/hour for 72 days. That's around 750K hands. Playing dollar 9/6 DDB (or 99% deuces) that comes to $3,750,000 played through the machines. Assuming you play perfectly that would mean an expectation of losing 1% of this total ... which is ... $37,500.
 
That means you were quite lucky if you only lost $30,000. Maybe you are counting some CB in that number or did find some better games at other casinos. I'm not familiar with Harrah's since I've known for a long time they don't have any positive games. I imagine the the best deuces game at Harrah's is 15/9 98.9% ugly deuces. Very close to DDB in expected return.
 
Do I have this right? If so, did you really expect to win?

[rolanddude]

Shadowman,I was figuring per year when I stated the 140k hands.  Over six years, losing 5k per year, playing nearly perfect, as I said I know it could've been worse.  I know after evaluating it myself last year in March that I was ahead a little as math goes (by the smallest of percentages around 1.25) from the expectation, but I was still down 30+ grand as the wallet goes.  I was expecting that by playing over time and staying close to 6/9 ddb expectations that with a little luck I could show better than that.  That's why now I would rather dive in and dive out when I'm up or when I have lost a very small predetermined amount using ARTT.  Since I'm not a local I don't have the luxury of driving to where I want to play where there are fertile fields of "good" machines that I could play everyday if I wished.  For a "Weekend-a-quarter" player like me, who loves staying at Harrah's Properties for free,  I have to go for this quick hit strategy.   That's why I called Rob in the first place and met up with him last July to hear him out.Thanks,Joe