Fa La La La La.... La la la la's Luck

[oej719]

[QUOTE=rascal]
He claims he is not making any money from his books or his column (everything's free!) but obviously sales are good enough for him to continue pushing the image.
 
I was on his web site recently and I think he now has a video as well.
 [/QUOTE]
 
His video's are watched online free. His strategies are free online also.
I have read and studied his single line play strategy and it seems to make good sense, in the fact that if you lose 400 credits at 5 cents, you then go to 10cents and risk 400 credits. From their go to 25cents for 400 credits etc....  Also the playing of the first 100 credits of each 400 on Bonus poker and then 300 on DDB makes good logic. Also the cashing out when ahead by 40 credits when starting play on each game and keeping it as profit  part seems good.  Overall it caught my attention because of the denomination progression. Say you are playing quaters and you get down $100. It is going to take  a win of quad aces to get ahead. Quad 2, 3 or 4 will just get you even. But if you change to 50cent any quad would put you back up. Does this make sense to anyone else.
Who here has studied his system? I am just trying to win some money and don't really care about the guy's bulls__t.  And to be perfectly frank I don't care about the other's saying if you play perfect on the best machines you could win 1%. Whoa!!!! !1% big freeking deal.
What intelligent person would want a chance at  1% profit and the alternative of 100% lose.

[oej719]

P.S.  I just read Fa La La La La.... La la la la's latest. On his last gambling trip he played 5 sessions and won all 5.
The final four of those sessions he hit quad ACES on bonus poker .
Playing at $5.  
What a crock. Do people really buy into his stories.

[cddenver]

Who here has studied his system? I am just trying to win some money and don't really care about the guy's bulls__t.  And to be perfectly frank I don't care about the other's saying if you play perfect on the best machines you could win 1%. Whoa!!!! !1% big freeking deal.
What intelligent person would want a chance at  1% profit and the alternative of 100% lose.
 
If your total play over the course of a year is $1M, every 1% improvement in your overall play amounts to $10,000.  Nothing to sneeze at, and it doesn't matter if you're getting that from little changes in basic play or from a few big "hits" each year.  You're here in CO, right?  Even with our $5 bet limit, it's not too difficult to get in $1M of play in a year.  The little things DO matter.  I don't think either system claims to lead to more quads/royals - those are a function of number of hands played.
 
I'm not a Fa La La La La.... La la la la expert - or a mathematician - but I don't think it's possible to win big $$$ with that approach in a small stakes environment.  We don't have the option of cashing out after 40 point runs on $5, $10, or (good grief) $100 play.  But the principles may hold, on a smaller $ scale.
 

[oej719]

So you are saying you are willing to spend most of your time every week at a casino to have the chance of winning $10,000 per year maybe.
Heck might as well get a job there and make more than that.
And sure if the principles work on $100 games, it has to work on any denomination game. Seems better than playing one denomination all the time and just still be behind when a big hand hits.
Makes perfect play seem futile to me.
 
On the other hand perfect play combined with a money management system like Fa La La La La.... La la la la's works. I have used it here on this site. No matter have far down you are when that Quad does hit you recover all your loss and are ahead. So good perfect holds ,along with an increase in denominations
does make sense as long as you hit a quad along the way.
Seems better than playing until you hit a royal or your session money is all gone.
I would rather go home with a little extra than what I came with rather than none of it.

[shadowman]

It's been proven mathematically that a progression cannot change the expected result of any game(s). What a progression does do is increase your chances of winning an individual session at the cost of occasional BIG losses.  Here are some of the things to consider:
 
- If you reduce your normal play denom to start the progression (say you normally play $1 and change to play .25, .50, $1, $2, $5), most of your play will be at .25 and therefore most of your jackpots will be at .25. You will be getting 1/4 of what you normally get. Is that acceptable?
 
- Some of your play will be at the top end of the progression. Some people would find that very stressful. Would you?
 
- Can your bankroll take losing a larger number of dollars in one session?
 
If these items are not a poblem then there is nothing wrong with playing a progression. Just don't expect it to change your overall results over time.

[oej719]

[QUOTE=shadowman]It's been proven mathematically that a progression cannot change the expected result of any game(s). What a progression does do is increase your chances of winning an individual session at the cost of occasional BIG losses.  Here are some of the things to consider:
 
- If you reduce your normal play denom to start the progression (say you normally play $1 and change to play .25, .50, $1, $2, $5), most of your play will be at .25 and therefore most of your jackpots will be at .25. You will be getting 1/4 of what you normally get. Is that acceptable?
 
Shadowman
 
 1.Most of the play comes in the middle ranges. In your example that would be .50 , $1, $2.
 2. Also most of the players I know would love an increased chance of winning each individual session.
3. And so what if most jackpots are 1/4 or even 1/2 size. Again most (90%) don't stop until the money is gone anyway.
4. For those that can afford it instead of stating at .25 the can start at .50
or higher.
 
Who does not want or expect to win each session?
If there is a way to increase your chances each session- I can find no fault in that. 
Am I missing some mysterious logic here?
 

[rascal]

I think the smart thing to do with any system is to take the portions of it that you think are worthwhile and apply them to your own personal style of play.
 
There are portions of Dancer's system and portions of Fa La La La La.... La la la la's system that are worthwhile to me.
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la seems to bring controversy to any VP chat site, whether he is physically present or not, so I am very glad to see that this discussion has proceeded so far with respect and tact.
 
In my opinion, his advice about discipline is the most important part of his system.
 
What many VP players (or any gamblers) don't realize is that casinos actually consider poor discipline to be such an important part of their financial results that they actually track it and factor it in. When X number of people beat the odds and collect handpays on a given day, the casino is already well aware that a significant percentage of those handpays will never leave the building --- they will be inserted into other machines.
 
My ex-significant other, who is a casino assistant manager, once told me, "If everyone who won something left immediately, we would be in trouble. But they won't...it is part of the gamer's profile."
 
So regardless of whether you love him or hate him, respect the part of Fa La La La La.... La la la la's program that calls upon you to exercise discipline, leaving with your winnings firmly in your pocket.
 
I have already posted on another thread my own method for enforcing discipline. Whenever I get a handpay, I only take it in the form of a check. Then I immediately -- on the spot! -- sign the back of the check with "For Deposit Only To Bank of America" and then I sign it. That way, I can't cash it --- it can only be deposited into my bank account. 
 
In the event you cannot, for some reason, get a check and you also cannot leave immediately, you can deposit your handpay into the casino's Safekeeping account. This only takes a few minutes. Then as you are walking out of the casino you withdraw it and take it with you.
 
No one but you can force you to take your winnings home. But it seems to me that if you are so lucky as to beat the odds, it is just plain nutso to put the money back into the machines.
 
If you ever watch the TV show "Deal Or No Deal," perhaps you have seen yourself. The jackpots offered are immense. But the show's producers know that they will only have to give away a small portion of those huge jackpots, because greed trumps all --- no matter how much a contestant wins, he/she wants more, and they will risk it all to win more money, usually losing all or most of what they have already won. Sound familiar?

[oej719]

 

[oej719]

Thanks Rascal.
Yeah I know Fa La La La La.... La la la la has to be exaggaerting. Always hitting quads with kickers. And I think he does try to play expert strategy even though he says he has "Special Plays". Holding the lone Ace is not a special play.
And I know that playing the same old long term on full pay and hoping is not the answer. Most casinos dont have full pay.
And Deal or no deal will never give a million away even if the player has the million dollar case. Cause the bank offer will reach 400k to 500k
and you have to be nuts to turn that down or go home broke.
Oh well. Life is good.

[shadowman]

Who does not want or expect to win each session?
If there is a way to increase your chances each session- I can find no fault in that. 
Am I missing some mysterious logic here?
 
No, with a 5 level progression you can raise the typical session (say 3-5K hands) win rate from around 20-40% (based on the game) to 50-75%. But, like I said, it will NOT, repeat NOT, improve your overall results. Your wins will be relatively small and the occasional losses much bigger. Also, if you've followed some of the bigger win streaks reported on this site, most of them would have been cut short by reaching the goal and quitting.
 
The most famous progression is called the Martingale system. It's more applicable to games where the bet can be changed every hand. For blackjack you double your bet every lost hand until you win. At that time you win back all you've lost so you reset back to your base bet. When you win, you keep it. Sounds simple ... except for one small problem. All blackjack games have a maximum bet which foils the entire system. Eventually you will lose everthing you have slowly gained. On the other hand, if you have an infinite bankroll and can find a no-limit blackjack game, you can't lose.
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la's progression has the same problem.