When is enough enough?

[shadowman]

This is all getting away from my original question. Let me rephrase it.
 
If you sat down to a new game in any casino, played 8000 hands, and determined your outcome was in the bottom 2% of possiblities, would you continue to play?


 
My initial losing streak mentioned above was over 200K hands with no RFs.  I then had 5 RFs in the next month and half.
 
I know a person who went over 400K hands with no royals. If you keep gambling you can be assured you will see 1 in 1000 situations or worse over time. The question you need to answer for yourself is whether you are psychologically willing to live with these ups and downs.
 
Aslo, if you are playing with a small advantage there is a good chance you may never come out a winner. A game that pays back exactly 100% will have more losers than winners. This is due to the non-normal statistical distribution of VP.

[pokeherguy]

Weekendplayer, I been there done that. The big difference between your experience and mine was I played far more than what you did and lost lots more money. I found myself in your exact situation a few years ago. I had been playing at the same casino for around 10 years and year after year I played with pretty much close to the same results. There was never a year I came out way or ahead nor a year where I lost a lot. We had a local casino open up a few years ago and I was glad to see they were loaded with vp and offered the same games with the same paytables I was accustomed to. It was about 2 hours closer round trip and I always had business to take care of in that area. It seemed like a no-brainer to me, why not start playing at the nearest location. It didn't take long for me to start wondering what the problem was because I was getting my butt kicked there. I had some good days but it was nothing like I was used to. I found myself asking the very same question as you, "should I stay or go". I chose to stay because I figured things had to turn around and the numbers would come around.  Wrong, wrong, wrong in my case. Thats not to say it wouldn't work out for you but I paid dearly for my decision. I finally gave up and even quit wondering what went wrong. I make the longer drive to old faithfull now and once again enjoy playing vp. Given my past history at the local casino I'm fairly certain if I started playing there again on a regular basis I would suffer the same results. My advice would be to not beat yourself up and waste your time wondering, just play where you're comfortable. good luck in the future.

[weekendplayer]

Prior to my attempt to cash in on a positive expectation game (99.7% NSUD + comps) I exclusively played JOB.  I played a modified martindale progressive betting scheme. My bets varied from 1 to 5 credits. Most of my betting was a the lower end of this range. Using Dancer's WinPoker, I developed a strategy for 9/6 JOB with less than 5 credits (less emphasis on the RF's). I had remarkable success with this. In fact, there was a 5 month period last year where I didin't have to make any cash withdrawals from my bank account. The casino supplied me with all my gambling money and all my spending money. In that period I had one stretch where I had 6 winning trips in a row.  I kept telling myself this shouldn't work. I'm giving up about 1.5% return not playing max credits. When a hit a royal with 1 credit in, I told myself "see, if you were playing max credits you would have won $4000 instead of $250". That's when I abandoned the martindale, and decided to chase higher expected returns. I did everything the experts advised. I searched the casino for the best game (NSUD). I studied and practiced before I stuck a single dollar in a machine. I played only on triple point days. It all made perfect sense to me.
For now, I'm going back to the martindale. It drives me crazy to do this. The time, energy, and money invested all cast aside, to go back to an inferior style of play.
I guess I just don't have the stomach for the higher variance and higher stakes. Maybe taking such a hit, right off the bat, taught me a lession in what's more realistic to expect.
I will stay away from the bank machines I nose dived on. If I see them become more popular with other players I might give them another chance.
I truely prefer the logic of mathamatics, but for now I'm siding with reality and my pocket book.
I heard once that according to the laws of physics and aerodynamics, it's impossible for bumble bees to fly.
 

[shadowman]

At one time they did not understand the physics behind the flight of birds (and bees) and hence started the myth you quoted. I think they now understand the physics much better.
It sounds to me like you may want to consider playing a lower denomination (do they have .50?) instead of giving up entirely. That might allow you to lower your losses until you get more comfortable. The problem of hitting the good paying hands at the lower denoms of a progression is exactly the problem with playing progressions. If you hit the good hands at the higher denoms all is well. But, that is not something you can count on.
 
I suspect hitting the RF with one credit was just the start of your problems. You should understand that your average bet playing a progressions somewhere in the middle or the range, hence my suggestion that you may be playing too high a denom right now. Essentially, you moved up in denom at exactly the same time you changed your approach and your bankroll is actually a little too small to be playing max coin dollars.
 
You could even consider a blend. Play 80% at .50 and 20% at dollar. You're still playing max coin but the bankroll requirement is less. If they have the game in quarters then you could play all 3 denoms (you're already playing a progression anyway) and play the progression at max coin for each denom.

[weekendplayer]

Unfortunately all the 99+% games are $1 or $5 demoninations. Given a choice, I would prefer playing quarters and avioding the WG's. This casino is less than 10 miles from my house.  The next closest casino is 120 miles away. Playing a 8/5 JOB max coin returns 97.3%. Playing a 9/6 JOB at less than max coin returns 98.4%, with a much lower variance.
 
Also, the bank from hell is the only $1 bank that has a $5 max coin bet. All the other 99+% $1 machines are either multi-line, or have a $10 or $20 max bet.