My History in Video Poker

[mickey crimm]

VIDEO KENO
 
I never was one to try and reinvent the wheels in gambling.  I studied the people who invented the wheels.  I'm a pirate.  I steal their ideas and use them for myself.  One of the wheel inventers  was Stanford Wong.  Sometime in the nineties I bought  Wong's book "Casino Tournament Strategy."  It gave excellent clinics on how to play Blackjack, Craps, Baccarat, and Keno tournaments.  It was probably the best of it's time.   
 
In the book Stanford gave  keno probabilities.  He did it from the one-spot to the twenty-spot.  It was expressed in decimals.  And it was complete.  Take the five-spot for example, the chances of catching: 
 
0/5.......................22.7%, or 1 in 4.4 games
1/5.......................40.6%, or 1 in 2.463 games
2/5.......................27.0%, or 1 in 3.7 games
3/5....................... 8.39%, or 1 in 11.92 games
4/5....................... 1.21%, or 1 in 82.64 games
5/5.......................   .0645%, or 1 in 1550.4 games
 
I filed his keno probabilities away for future reference--and, lo and behold, I eventually found a keno play.   I walked into  John Ascuagua's Nugget in Sparks, Nevada one day and found a video keno promotion.   A few days a week they paid double for hitting a solid five-spot, a solid six-spot, a solid seven-spot, or a solid eight-spot.  I dashed home and wrote down the probabilities. 
 
Video keno machines have a myriad of configurations for payback percentage.   Of course, I was gonna play the five-spot if possible because you will hit the solid five about every 1550.4 games, whereas the six-spot is at 7752, and the seven and eight spot are much, much higher. 
 
So I go back to the Nugget and write down  the five-spot payscales on the various machines and grab a seat.  It's been so long ago that I can't remember the exact configurations involved.  So I have to make an approximation. 
 
Here is what one configuration looked like: 
 
3/5 pays 5 for one.
4/5 pays 32 for one.
5/5 pays 150 for one. 
 
I listed the chances above so:
 
5 divided by 11.92=41.9%
32 divided by 82.64=38.7%
150 divided by 1550.4=9.7%
 
That totals to 90.3%.  And since the solid five represents 9.7% of the payback, getting paid double would put the game at 100%.  That's no good as I would be breaking even if I didn't pull my money out of my pocket.  I seen that I was gonna have to find a payscale that was top heavy.  And I did. 
 
I think the game was called something like "Top Hat Keno."  The payscale looked like this: 
 
3/5 pays 3 for one. 
4/5 pays 27 for one. 
5/5 pays 500 for one. 
 
3 divided by 11.92=25.2%.
27 divided by 82.64=32.7%.
500 divided by 1550.4=32.25%. 
 
That totals to 90.15%.  This was a top heavy payscale, hence, the name Top Hat Keno.  The game was probably designed for people who wanted a big payoff for hitting the solid five.  90.15% plus 32.25% equals 122.4%.  Yippee!!! I found a big edge. 
 
Other people had the same idea as me and we all pounded away.   Then one day I came in and they disqualified the five-spot.  So we all moved up to the six-spot.  Then one day I came in and you couldn't find Top Hat Keno on a machine anywhere in the casino.  All good things have to come to an end. 
 
Positive situations in video keno progressives in Nevada were pretty much a thing of the past by the time I got into the racket.   But machine pros who were there told me about them.  But I think that in some parts of the country things may be found.  I heard as late as last year that  video keno progressive "teams" were still operating in Florida.  At one time it was huge down there--but I don't know what the situation is today. 
 
As far as progressives go,  a machine pro wants to know what the COST is.  Here's a six-spot example: 
 
Chances of 3/6=7.7
Chances of 4/6=35.1
Chances of 5/6=322.6
Chances of 6/6=7752 
 
3/6 pays 2 for one.
4/6 pays 12 for one.
5/6 pays 85 for one.
6/6 pays progressive.  Meter starts at 600 for one. 
 
2 divided by 7.7=25.97%.
12 divided by 35.1=34.2%.
85 divided by 322.6=26.35%.
 
Now, I've left off the payback for 6/6 because it's not needed (600 divided by 7752=7.74%, so the game would come in at 94.26% plus whatever the meter speed is.  But, like I said, it's not needed).   
 
We're gonna add up the payback for 3/6, 4/6, 5/6.  That comes to 86.52%.  Then we're gonna subtract that number from 100, which is 13.48%. 
 
Now we're gonna call it a four-coin quarter game, which means we are betting $1 per game.   The chances of 6/6 is 7752.  So per the averages we will make a $7752 wager per solid six.  $7752 X 13.48% is $1045--and thats what a machine pro refers to as "THE COST/BREAKEVEN POINT.    It's gonna cost us, on average, $1045 for every 6/6 we hit. 
 
Per the usual, meter speed tells a big story.  The first thing I'm gonna do is figure out the meter speed and here's why:  The meter starts at $600.  so $445 would have to go into the meter to get to the breakeven point. 
 
If the meter is running only 1%, the 6/6 would have to miss 44,500 games/5.75 cycles (445 X 100) to get to $1045.  That is an extremely rare occurance and I wouldn't have to monitor those machines as plays are just not going to develop. 
 
With a 2% meter we're gonna get some plays.  The 6/6 would have to miss just 22,500 games (445 X 50) to put it at the breakeven point.  Equate it to quads at video poker.  The chances are around 425 at Jacks or Better but how many times have you gone 1200 or 1500 hands between quads. 
 
With a 3% meter, now we're cooking.  The 6/6 would have to miss just 14,833 games to put it at the breakeven number.  That's about 1.91 cycles.  We're gonna get lot's of plays. 
 
I gave the breakeven points but I would probably wait for more money to go into the meters.  I would probably want a number like $1300+.  Machine pros always want a "win factor."  It would depend on how fast the machines play.  If I could get out 1500 games per hour, I could expect to hit 6/6 about every five hours of play.  With the meter up around $1300 that would be about a $30 an hour play--plus whatever the meter is traveling at.  If it were a 2% meter that would be another $30 an hour in theoretical. 
 
I'm not shilling for Wong, but Casino Tournament Strategy is an excellent book.     
 
 
 
 
 
 

[mickey crimm]

VIDEO KENO
 
I have another video keno story but I'm saving it for when I write about the hustler's convention at the Pioneer Hotel & Gambling Hall in Laughlin, Nevada in April/May 2002. 
 
Correction:  I listed the chances of hitting 1/5 numbers as 40.6% or 1 in 24.63 games.  It should read 2.463 games.  Sorry, eh? 
 
 

[New2vp]

VIDEO KENO
 
I have another video keno story but I'm saving it for when I write about the hustler's convention at the Pioneer Hotel & Gambling Hall in Laughlin, Nevada in April/May 2002. 
 


Correction:  I listed the chances of hitting 1/5 numbers as 40.6% or 1 in 24.63 games.  It should read 2.463 games.  Sorry, eh? Mickey, you can go back to the original message, hit the edit button and make the change if you want.

[mickey crimm]

[QUOTE=mickey crimm]VIDEO KENO
 
I have another video keno story but I'm saving it for when I write about the hustler's convention at the Pioneer Hotel & Gambling Hall in Laughlin, Nevada in April/May 2002. 
 
Correction:  I listed the chances of hitting 1/5 numbers as 40.6% or 1 in 24.63 games.  It should read 2.463 games.  Sorry, eh?


Mickey, you can go back to the original message, hit the edit button and make the change if you want.
[/QUOTE]
 
Thanks,  I'm sooooo computer illiterate.

[mickey crimm]

THE PIONEER HUSTLERS CONVENTION
April/May 2002
 
 
I walked into the Vegas Club sportsbook, grabbed a copy of Gaming Today, and took a seat.  I read Gaming Today not for the gambling advice (it's junk) but for the Gaming news.  Like keeping up on casino openings, promotions, etc.  A couple of years before I picked up a headline that said Detroit Motor City had installed Acres Gamings' Lucky Coin Bonus System.  With my experience at Mandalay Bay this was the kind of news I was looking for.   
 
"Southwest Airlines, may I help you?"
"Yes, next flight to Detroit, please."
 
I was in Detroit that night.  It turned out that there was nothing exploitable in the system.  It was a promotion called Motor City Millionaire. 
Every month some machine would start flashing and the person playing it got $50,000 a year for twenty years.  That person bet the Lucky Coin.  It might be the first day of the month, the 15th, or the last day.  So there really was no way to exploit it.  But luckily for me the place was filled with advantage slots so I got to make enough to cover my expenses, plus a nice tip, and flew back to Las Vegas. 
 
So there I was in the Vegas Club again reading the Gaming news.  I caught this headline:  The Pioneer Hotel & Gambling Hall in Laughlin, Nevada Set To Install Acres Gamings' Double Time System. 
 
So off to Laughlin I went.  When I got there I was surprised to find many of my hustler friends piling into town.  They had gotten the same news I had.  It was gonna be a hustlers' convention. 
 
This was early April and I had a logistical problem coming up--The River Run.  The last weekend in April is a watershed for Laughlin.  It's Biker Weekend and the hotel rooms are sold out months in advance.  Now the casinos always keep a few rooms available but If you are a Johnny Come Lately you will probably have to pay about $500 a night  for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  But Sunday the price would drop back down to $20 or so.  
 
This is also the time when the weather starts getting very hot so all of the snowbirds clear the town before biker Weekend.   The RV parks empty out.  And you won't see the snowbirds again until fall. 
 
So we're all hanging around waiting for some action at the Pioneer.  They hadn't started installing the system yet.  The days roll by and it's getting closer and closer to Biker Weekend.  It got so close that now I was hoping they wouldn't start installing it until after Biker Weekend.
 
But no such luck.  They started installing on the Tuesday just before Biker Weekend.  Damn! Damn! Damn!  Myself and a lot of tother hustlers' were gonna have to get out of town on Thursday and we couldn't come back until Sunday.  I was afraid that if there was any money to be made it would be in the first couple of days.  Oh, well!  I'll just have to deal with it. 
 
The first thing they did was install new card readers.  When you put your card in and started playing the border of the card reader turned green.  If you stopped playing for several seconds the border of the card reader would turn red.  There had to be something to that. 
 
I came back in early Wednesday morning and the technicians were somehow linking about 25 video poker machines together.  Here and there we were asking the techs what the system was gonna do.  This is what we found out:  Every so often the card readers on the machines would start flashing "DOUBLE TIME."  And for one minute certain hands were going to pay double.  There would be no waiting to be paid the extra money by an attendent.  The extra credits would just rack up on the machine.  "But you gotta be playing in order to qualify for the double time" one tech said.  "That's the reason for the card readers turning Red and Green"  some of us said. 
 
So we're looking at the machines they were linking up.  They were all quarter video pokers.  The best bank was 9/7 Double Bonus progressive with five meters.  This would be the first set of machines they linked up.  It was getting real close to showtime and several of us huddled around the 9/7 bank waiting for them to get the system up and running. 
 
A tech showed up with a sign and placed it on top of the bank.  It said "In double time all pays from 20 to 50 coins will pay double." 
 
"Holy Cow!" we were all saying.
"The straight, the Flush, and the Full House are all gonna pay double!!"
"How big an add on is that?"
"What's the payback on that?"
"Anybody bring their laptop with Winpoker?"
"I got it!!!"  one hustler said.  He bolted to his room. 
He was back in a few minutes with the answer:  130%
"Now don't get too excited everybody.  We don't know how often we're gonna get the double times."
 
The techs cleared out of the way and we dove in.  We all start playing and asking each other questions.  We were trying to figure out what was going on: 
 
"You gotta be playing to qualify."
"Yeah, but how much you gotta be playing."
"How long is it until the card reader turns red after you play a hand?"
 
We would play a hand, the card reader would turn green, then stop and stare at our wrist watches  to see how long it took for the card readers to turn red.
 
"About 12 seconds!" 
"So that means we only have to play a hand about every 11 seconds to keep the machine qualified for double time."
"Yep, that's about right."
 
"Now,  who said we gotta bet five coins to keep the machines qualified?" 
"That's right!!!  Let's try it with one coin."
 
We all started betting one coin and the card readers stayed green. 
 
"Whoopppppeeeeeeee!!!!!  We got 'em by the short hairs now!!!!!!"
 
Then we timed the double time. It lasted for one minute.
 
The double times were coming pretty fast, about every 7 or eight minutes.     We were all betting one coin and playing a hand about every 10 or eleven seconds.  Then when DOUBLE TIME flashed on the card reader we all went to betting five coins and playing like bats out of hell for one minute.   And we were all racking the hell out of the credits.
 
"Could somebody tell me the strategy to this game?"
"What do you mean?"
"Theres gotta be some strategy adjustments.  You got a flush that pays 14 for one and a straight that pays 10 for one. "
"I'll worry about that later.  I'm making money right now."
 
"Where do you think the money is coming from?"
"What do you mean?"
"Theres gotta be some kind of money pool going on."
"You mean something like a percentage of the handle on all the machines linked up?"
"Yeah, something like that. We're not giving any action between the double times.  So it would seem that the money pool would dry up from lack of action."
 
We all look over at the tourists playing the sucker machines that were linked to our bank. 
 
"That's where the money is coming from" someone said.
"It's their action creating the double times."
"We'll be able to confirm it late tonight when the action slows down."
 
And late that night we confirmed that it took action from the ploppies to create the double times. 
 
To be continued................
 
 
 
 
 
   

[royal flush]

are these games linked linked like 8 ball used to be or flush attack

[mickey crimm]

The best we could figure they were linked together for purposes of creating a money pool based on a percentage of the combined total wager of the machines.  It wound up that there were six or seven different sections of machines linked together for this purpose. 
 
What we noticed was how the number of double times per hour fluctuated with how well we did in each double time.  If we hit a lot of double hands in the mode it would take longer for the next double time to come around.  The money pool had to build back  up again.   But if we were't doing that well the double times came faster.   And the number of recreational players who were playing straight through was a big factor. 
 
At first the system was wide open.  But as the days went by and the techs seen how many of us were beating the game they started tweaking down the double times--until eventually the super strong play was over for us.   

[Webman]

To be continued...Right here