An open offer to Fa La La La La.... La la la la

[Webman]

For those who are unaware, Fa La La La La.... La la la la has been doing a study of a certain phenomenon that he claims is evidence that machines do not perform in the exact random fashion that many advantage players insist upon. The phenomenon as I understand it is this… when holding 4 to a straight, flush, or 2 pair, he claims that the discarded card is replaced with another card of the same value (the ten of clubs with the ten of spades) far more frequently (more than 6 times) than random probabilities would suggest.It just so happens that Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la and I will be crossing paths in Las Vegas in June.As he states, nobody else is studying this apparent phenomenon, or at least they are not talking about it. Strategy differences aside, I think that this particular issue is something that any player should indeed care about, so it has led me to this offer.This is one very specific and relatively easy to measure issue that I am absolutely interested in learning the answer to as it could turn a lot of our perceptions on their head. I think that is why a lot of people are afraid to even try it, because they fear things might not turn out just as they expect. Let's face it, even if certain members here or on other forums posted their results, they might be hard to trust for a number of reasons.The biggest problem of course is that this observation holds very little weight with the majority of people because there is no verification. I think that, given our brief history and the obvious skepticism, people would accept me as an honest and somewhat impartial observer who could report on at least one small piece of the puzzle and it could do the video poker community at large a great service.The offer: One hour (or two if you prefer and the service is good), playing side by side… plunking nickels or whatever you prefer, sharing in good company. No attention to strategy or performance, merely observing the 5th card flipover phenomenon. The results to be prominently posted and shared on the VideoPoker.com forum and wherever else you choose to post them.Procedure: When either of us is about to draw on a qualifying hold, we would simply notify the other by calling out the value of the 5th card, and both would then watch the draw take place. We would each keep a running tab of the number of opportunities for both players and whether the flipped card had the same value. If either of us accidentally draws too quickly and the other did not observe the draw, we would not record the incident. Upon completion, we would each sign the other’s card (each showing both player totals) and sufficiently photograph our score cards side by side so that nobody questions the integrity of the results.One hour of play would clearly not be enough to refute or prove this phenomenon, and I know you are doing a much more in-depth analysis accordingly. I will also do this in my personal play as time goes on. The results of this one session would just be as they are… one session, for whatever it’s worth. But if the probabilities have the odds of turning over the same card value as low as 6% of the time, while you have observed that machines in actuality return as high as 40%, even a net result of more than 25% should show people that things are clearly leaning in favor of your own observations over the mathematical probability. To that end, there is very little risk involved in taking this offer because an event that occurs 40% of the time would be almost certain to occur much more frequently even in short sessions, which I assume is how you observed it to begin with. I’m sure some would make up excuses for why 25% or higher is reasonable over the short term, but I for one would be drawn to consider this issue much more closely, especially if the results in a hour-long session are on the higher end of 40% or even more.Even though this session would not be conclusive, I think it would be an interesting endeavor that could add a lot of weight towards convincing people.If, for some reason, you think that the machines at the specified location are not performing as designed, I will also gladly put up cab fare to get us both to the local casino of your choice and continue the test on another sheet of paper.The first drink is on me.Feel free to take your time to consider this. I look forward to your response via email.Please note that this offer is made on an unofficial, personal basis only and does not reflect the views or opinions of Action Gaming, Inc. or VideoPoker.com

[oej719]

Let me be the first to comment.
I don't think he will take you up on it for whatever reason.
If he does, watch out for his blue bag. Find out what is in that thing.
Tell him OEJ says hello and it is time for him to make another video.

[Webman]

You? The first to comment? I am shocked. 

[oej719]

He is my favorite comedian next to George Bush.

[shadowman]

On another forum a member just posted their own results. Out of 79 opportunities in 800 hands that they noticed they had 7 repeats. In the 79 chances this is a little less than 9%. Well with reason.
 
Between Rob and WM I would expect to see over a thousand hands and somewhere between 3-9% at this number. Maybe new2vp can give us a better expectation.
 
In general four card holds happen every 8-9 hands in games that pay on Jacks or better. More often in many wild card games. The standard deviation should get pretty small pretty quickly with this high rate of chances.
 
I predict that Rob will turn down this opporunity (or, if past behavior is valid, fail to show up).
 
 

[oej719]

He is probably scared as hell right now. Maybe he will send harpo, or the pianoman to take his place.

[cddenver]

Nice offer, Webman!    Rob will find a way to take a pass on it, though. 
 

Between Rob and WM I would expect to see over a thousand hands and somewhere between 3-9% at this number. Maybe new2vp can give us a better expectation.

 
I'm thinking of investing a session or two myself in some 10-play to get some quick numbers.  50-play or 100-play would be even better, but trying to count "flips" on all of those little hands would be a pain.  If I do that I'm planning on asking New2vp's help () in analyzing the results over what will be a relatively small sample.  It shouldn't take too many hands - the experimenter himself must have spotted something early on, else why track "flips" at all?
 
 
I predict that Rob will turn down this opporunity (or, if past behavior is valid, fail to show up).

 
Or ignore the offer, since it has "show me" conditions on it.  Maybe he'll put a $10K price tag on providing proof, to be paid up front with small, unmarked bills in a paper bag in a dark alley behind the casino. 
 
It's my own opinion that the closest he's come to actually performing this experiment is all of the writing that he's done about it - it's just a way to keep his name floating around on the forums since he doesn't have many ways to get his views out anymore, other than his own site.  If this was a real experiment, I wonder why he's still bothering to "test"?  As Webman said, the real issue isn't nailing down an exact "flip" percentage; with the number of opportunities he's claimed to have he could put out a good number with a plus/minus next to it for the extent of the rigging.  The last I saw he was claiming about 45% "flips" on those hands; even a rate of 20% would be enough to prove his point.  He's said recently that he knows more about math than 99% of the population, yet he continues to just plug away.
 
He said in a recent e-letter that he's played 30K out of the planned 45K hands and that only illness will delay his testing.  I thought that was kind of a strange thing to say, like me arranging a meeting with someone - as long as my car doesn't break down.  So, keep open the possibility of a sudden, unforseen illness stretching the test out a bit longer.    
 
If I was a casino owner or manager with machines rigged in this way, I would have long since changed the method of rigging since he caught on to it months ago and has been writing about it on a regular basis ever since.  The rigging was implemented overnight, so it can be changed overnight.  
 

[cddenver]

He is probably scared as hell right now. Maybe he will send harpo, or the pianoman to take his place.

 
Just remember not to leave a filled coin cup on the machine if pianoman's around.  He might think it's his tip jar and make off with it.

[oej719]

The bloody billionair licker is getting lickered up bout now. Grinding his teeth cursing the day he ever showed up here with his lying bs. He just might sic one of his boyfriends on us ex: pianoman or libra2, or virgo2.
Ride em cowboy.

[Webman]

(sigh)Like honey to a bee, I tells ya. Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la has officially accepted the offer. I look forward to sharing the results with all of you in June.I think the only one who should be "scared" is me, as I make no claims to any true expertise in the game. I only play a few times a year and am far from mastering the strategy for most games. Not quitting my day job any time soon, in other words. He will probably make mince meat of me on the credits, so hopefully we can keep the study to the 5th card flips I'll have to practice up on my VPW before as it's been a while.Resume banter.