Offer to Fa La La La La.... La la la la: Results (5th card flip)

[Webman]

First of all, I would like to thank Rob for showing up, which in itself proved many here wrong. And further for completing the test exactly as requested. I had an enjoyable evening.
 
Background: For those who are just joining, Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la has been stating that there is an observable phenomenon in video poker machines which demonstrates that the machines do not operate in the completely random manner that many assume. He calls this the 5th card flipover, where when holding 4 cards, the draw card is the same value as the discard a disproportionate amount of the time. Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la has stated that after recording many thousands of these instances, he observed this happening a massive 40% of the time, not the mathematical prediction of less than 6%. This would not be a small discrepancy.
 
Many cast doubt on these assertions, and the problem of course that it is hard to trust one man's word on the internet. With that in mind, I made an offer to Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la to sit down with him in person and witness this first hand, recording the results as we played side by side, and post the results for all to see. Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la accepted and this evening we completed the sessions as we both watched one another's 4-card hold draws and recorded each one.
 
It should be noted that this is just one short session.
 
 
 
Now, THE RESULTS:
 
Mr Fa La La La La.... La la la la's Results are on the left. Mine are on the right.
 

 

 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la played until he had completed 100 qualifying draws.
Same card flips: 7
 
Webman played until I had 80 draws
Same card flips: 4
 

I will leave the analysis of these numbers to those who have such talents.
 
To see the original offer in more detail and the responses, visit here.
 
Happy to be of service.
 
Please note, this offer and test were conducted on a personal basis and any opinions expresed do not reflect the official opinion of Action Gaming, IGT, or even Nancy Pelosi.

[Webman]

Just a few "fun facts" about the session that I also said I would post.
 
We played nickels, 1 credit, on Bonus Poker.
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la finished ahead a little over 5 bucks. I broke even (I was actually up 20 cents and played it back in like a FOOL! I will never forgive myself).
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la hit Aces twice in one session, which he made a point of noting that people frequently say he does not do. He was only holding one acee on of them.
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la also hit a straight flush.
 
Webman got dealt quad 2's once.
 
We played for about an hour and 45 minutes but we spent a good while talking in between hands and also paused to write results, so this is not an accurate reflection of play speed by any means, merely a statistic. We did not keep track of total hands played, only the 5th card flip instances, as that is the purpose of his study.
 
2am? Time for bed.
 

[vidopoker]

is that Rob in the picture? What casino did this take place at?

[New2vp]

Well, to start with, you have to give credit to Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la for showing up.  It will be interesting to see what spin is put on this by Fa La La La La.... La la la la and other non-mathematical types who believe that this sample is too small to draw conclusions from.Secondly, you have to give an extraordinary deal of credit to Webman for having the imagination and salesmanship to actually bring off this exercise. For preliminary analysis, an observed 5th card flipover rate of 6.1% hardly "rattles the world" of advantage players everywhere like Fa La La La La.... La la la la likes to say.  (This interesting "turn of a phrase" was also a favorite of rolanddude; no, I'm not saying they are the same person, I'm just saying...)To help with his future spin, since it is obvious to astute observers that Fa La La La La.... La la la la's columns contain info from this forum, the odds of obtaining 11 or fewer 5th card flipovers if the true rate were actually as high as 40% are about 1 in 5,681,029,480,000,000,000,000,000.  To put this in terms that all video poker players could more easily understand, it is roughly 300,000 times MORE likely that your next three attempts at a single-line vp game would EACH result in DEALT royal flushes...in spades (or whatever your favorite suit is).  Again, sorry Dumb and Dumber fans, I am not saying there is a conceivable practical chance for this to happen during our lifetime.  Unbiased individuals with proper training in probability and statistics would have a difficult time suggesting that the flipover rates were actually 40% or higher as was claimed in a similar experiment with 30,000 plus observations, even using results from a sample size as small as 180.  Again, plaudits to Webman.  Let the spin begin.

[shadowman]

OMG, the results were almost exactly what one would have expected on an honest, random machine. Who would have thunk.

[oej719]

He looks dazed ( ^_^ ) and numb in the photo. Normal.

Looking forward to the movie now.
Did he happen to mention the voices in his head?
Did he jerk and convulse when he hit the aces?

[Cashout]

Well if Nancy Pelosi's official opinion (or her play) is not involved then its all moot anyway



All kidding aside You both took time and money (hey 20cents is 20cents!) to do this.  Thank you both for conducting the experiment & the results were interesting....

[cddenver]

Again, plaudits to Webman.  Let the spin begin.


 
And to Rob, for showing up.   I'd said on several occasions it wouldn't come off.    But it is nice to see that we can put the "flip" issue to bed, once and for all.   I'm sure that's the last we'll hear of it, yes sirree. 
 
P.S. To Webman - you need to learn to cut and run when you hit those early winners.  You got $ signs in your eyes, got greedy, and paid for it...learn from the experience.  You're poorer, but hopefully wiser. 

[oej719]

He is wiser just for spending a swell evening in the presence of the vp yoda.
Lets all go for a swim now that the pool is clean.

[cddenver]

Oej, you don't sound very relieved that the observed "flips" turned out to be close to the expected value.   Lots of folks here sweating bullets over this (), having gone way out on a limb by saying that the observed result would be close to the expected one, with some plus/minus due to the small number of hands played. 
 
In my previous post I should have thanked New2vp as well for taking the time beforehand to put together several scenarios showing what could be expected to happen over a small amount of play.  
 
I, for one, will finally be able to sleep well tonight.