A little strategy, some luck, & VP.com's advice

[pyro225]

First of all, Happy Birthday America! Say a prayer for our boys in the trenches over there.
My July 4th motto: If the neighbors don't tell you "Shut the Hell Up!" about midnight, you're not blowing off enough amateur explosives!
Have fun, be safe, blah blah blah.
(pardon the following long-winded and potentially tedious questions!)
Some of you have read my pre-trip report thread and how beyond stoked I am/we are about our upcoming 7 day/6 night comp'd trip to Sin City July 27th.
In advance of our trip, I have done HOURS of research getting up to date on that Deliciously Evil game of Video Poker. I've even practiced here several hours using the Wiz's basic strategies (my strat' cards have yet to arrive).
VP.com has covered it all - from trip reports, FP game locations and denominations, basic strategy, 1800 special plays to enhance said strategy (NOT!), to how players clubs short video poker players with slot club points.
I'm a several year "enthusiast" of Bob Dancer and THE Wizard of Odds. My strategy cards will be for JOB, DW, and DB variations of the game. I also will print a few business size cards with pay tables to assure I'm maximizing my play.
MAXIMIZING MY PLAY - that is the real subject of this thread.
I've convinced Miss Hell (michele, my fiance) that using strategy cards and patiently playing video poker at a reasonable denomination should be the focus of our gambling dollars. Not only will our sessions be more relaxing and enjoyable (and hopefully LONGER!), VP has a significantly better return than video or reel slot machines.
Don't get me wrong - I'm no VP snob. I dig a good .01/.05 Texas Tea, Reel Em 'In, or Double Diamond reel slot. But only as a diversion, and only on the house's money. Maybe we'll get those out of our system with the $100 in Free Play that are part of our comp offers.
Anyway, I'm struggling to apply the concept of variance, as well as how to interpret risk of ruin in relation to our allotted session bankrolls.
For the sake of the question, I'll estimate our bankroll to be approximately $300 per day between the two of us.
That's likely a little light for single line .25 games, correct?
Since it's full pay pennies and nickels we're after, and we're staying at the MC and Bellagio, we'll be putting some miles on the hooves, the Deuce, the shuttles, and a few crazy cabbie rides.
VPFree/VPFree2 leads me to believe a day downtown at Four Queens and Main Street Station will be a worthwhile endeavor. And of course we'll end up several times at Palms. Any other locations to try - DO TELL!
At the nickel level, 1/3/5/10 line play I think will be a reasonable level (?) considering session bankroll. If I find a nickel MultiStrike I may give it a shot, too!
At the penny level, I may stretch it up to 25 or even 50 play. $5 a hand REALLY pushes the threshold for me!
(Please correct me if I'm wrong about these being reasonable expectations)
My games are JOB and DW. DB/DDB seems a little complicated a strategy to learn, but who knows I may give it a whirl (no progressive step multi-denominations though).
So now, if you're still with me, help me understand how to apply the concept of variance.
Do I understand this concept as the tendency for a particular game variation to have the potential for "wilder" swings of overall payouts versus overall losses?
If I understand correctly, even though FPDW is a slightly positive EV game, the risk of ruin is increased due to it's tendency to have these "wilder" swings (technical term?)
FPJOB is a slightly negative EV game, but there is less a tendency of "wilder" swings and a decreased risk of ruin.
I also understand that when playing multi-line games, the "standard deviation" increases since you're playing more hands than a single line game.
And then there's the concept of risk of ruin. This is a expectation based on King Math that with a certain amount of betting units, there is a certain percentage of risk of losing the whole bankroll in a given session.
I hope that made at least SOME sense!
Considering my bankroll, planning to play as near a perfect strategy as possible, the games I've chosen to focus on, and the denominations I'm going to play -
I welcome ANY and ALL advice, corrections, additional considerations, and encouragement to bring back pictures of that elusive Royal Flush!
Martingale and distant relatives need not apply!
BTW I just yesterday bought a credit card size camera to take with us to all our sessions for just this purpose!
Honestly, I will be ecstatic if we can eek out many hours of exciting play per day - WIN OR LOSE!
Thanks for any help IN ADVANCE! And a sincere thanks for all the shared wisdom and experience here at VP.com.

p_225

[EDC1977]

Welcome pyro. Hope you have good luck in LV. You should try to learn good basic strategy in JoB or DW. Multi line nickels can burn through that 3 bills quickly so you may want to consider single line unless you're only playing for a short time daily. Your visit to the vpfree website will give you iodeas about where to visit in terms of VP. Find a casino and check out that casinos website or call the concierge for machine availability. Some listings are deceptive in that they have 100% + games but a small inventory of games on the floor. Many places like that in LV/Henderson where it's not uncommon to find only 25 machines in the place.
  Again, good luck.

[Eduardo]

You might have a hard time finding full pay pennies and nickels in the exact game you want.
 
I think FPDW is considered a LOW variance game, not a high one. That is what I started out on myself. You can get a lot of play in on a low bankroll with it unless you hit a major drought right away.
 
Goo luck out there! Let us know how it goes.

[shadowman]

Variance is one of those things that can be a little confusing. While DW is low relative to games like DDB and TDB, it is still fairly high. Unless you hit those darn deuces you are only playing at 94-95% ER. And that's with the best paytables.
 
One example of a game I used to play was a quarter triple play JOB progressive. With the progressives averaging around $1300 the variance of this game is around 34. That's higher than DW, DB, etc. But, this game still pays back 2:1 for two pair. It does not play like a high variance game. All the variance is in the RF which is already a low probability result.
 
So, variance is not the entire story.

[pyro225]

Thanks for the tips and the encouragement guys
If you have anything else I should consider, DO TELL!

[rascal]

Yeah, use VP FREE to check the paytables, but be aware that it is not always up to date. Check the tables out carefully yourself and walk out if the casino you're in is greedy. If every VP player would refuse to sit down at poor paying machines, the casinos would get the message. Unfortunately, there are always plenty of suckers, especially on the strip. It's like gas in Laughlin....none of the residents will buy it; we all drive across to Bullhead and save plenty of bucks, but there are always tourists who buy gas in Laughlin, and as long as they do it will remain high.

[BOOPSAHOY]

I am afraid that at the penny and nickel level the paytables wont be that great-it seems to me that you need to pay quarters or dollars to get the better paytables-however-at the penny and nickel denom is it really that bad if the paytables are slightly less than fullpay? It will still be less expensive than moving up to quarters right? Now after all this variance and paytable talk remember the most important thing........
HAVE FUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Im wishing you a bunch of royals as well!

[pyro225]

You guys ROCK!
Thanks for the humbling lessons! The encouragement and practicle advice is VERY much appreciated. Looking forward to bringing back tales and pics of my experiences.

p_225

[Eduardo]

Also not sure if anyone said this yet, but pick a game you plan on playing and then pratice practice practice it before your trip using some software that tells you the right holds. Unless you are someone who knows the games inside and out, it's easy to get a little rusty over time. If you already know a game fairly well, a few minutes on a training program can help you brush up on some holds.
 
If you plan on trying out a new game you haven't studied at all yet, definitely practice and maybe pocket a strategy card for those head scratchers. I tend to not use a card very often but when I did bring one with me it was nice to look at it once in a while. I'm definitely not one who could consult a card every hold. That is better suited for your time learning at home (on software preferably) rather than your gambling time.
 
Go prepared and look for those pay tables. Sometimes two machines in the same row will have different pays, or different pays at different denoms on the same machine. Always always always know what you are playing. You might be throwing away money that could give you a few extra chances if you were sitting the next chair over.

[EDC1977]

Stealing a quote from an article Bob Dancer writes for a local casino paper here in Ca. "I think of video poker as applied mathematics and I try to play like a well-programmed computer would. Others think of video poker as a fun way to gamble but they don't know all of the odds, all of the best plays nor do they know what machine is a good gamble and a bad gamble. These people are forced to go with their gut feeling because they don't know enough about the game to usefully use their head." Well said!