hot /cold machines

[shadowman]

Today I picked up a stadium seat I didn't need, some plastic glasses I didn't need and a water bottle I didn't need.


 
OTOH, I did pick up Twins tickets to watch them kick Detroit's butt later this month.  and, oh yeah, another RF, which I always need.

[BOOPSAHOY]

YAY for the RF Shadowman!

[cddenver]

 and, oh yeah, another RF, which I always need.


 
WTG! 

[faygo]

 
OTOH, I did pick up Twins tickets to watch them kick Detroit's butt later this month.  
 
HEY!!!! 

[marie meijer]

 
OTOH, I did pick up Twins tickets to watch them kick Detroit's butt later this month.  and, oh yeah, another RF, which I always need. GO TIGERS!!!  Congratulations on that royal!

[Eduardo]

I'm starting to think there's no such thing as a cold machine, just hot ones.

[mout]

 you guys won thin in a louisiana casino.......was it the lake charles area

[optimalf]

I have read here for a while.   I have a different strategy than the AP strategy that I have read about over the past 5 years.  Even in randomness there are streaks of winning and losing.  10 years ago i began my career as a stock trader in Merger Arbitrage.  In our spare time, we programmed video poker simulations, at first using crude or maybe that Ive learned more, not so crude simluations of video poker using microsoft excel and various forms of random number generation.  (yes, rnd generators have many, many differenct varieties even the canned ones in excel).Once you program the hand probabilities into excel (lets say for jacks or better which I know now barely exists in the real casino world but it was prevalent when i started these computer sims)  you assign sets of values for 1 to 40,000 to correspond with the probabilties of hitting that hand and then assign the payout according to the paytable you wish (6,7,8 or 9 or the full house etc, five or six for the flush etc.)Anyway, then you hit f9 and excel plays nearly 64,000 hands of vp at once.This mass of data is where you can see what we would call streaks of wins and losses.Now, in any probabilistic field (poker, stock trading, baseball, blackjack, i would extrapolate that every second we live is a probabilistic endeavor and involves risk and reward, like driving across town to visit your sister which has a 1/500,000 chance result of you dying in car accident, but most people associate games or endeavors of chance with this only so ill stick to it)  there are in fact periods of winning and periods of losing that are just RANDOM.Yes, so the data shows that.   While I have given a cursory summary of how I got to this point and surely anyone reading could do this simulation setup in a few hours...where is this leading?This leads to a few things.  First, when we are in these probable random positive scenarios or "streaks" we call that "good luck."  When we are in the losing periods we call that "bad luck."  Without getting into a discussion of "nothing is purely random" (those rnd generators are, in fact, programmed by humans who are not random),  our job in any probabilistic field is to take advantage of positive scenarios, or "good luck" while minimizing our exposure to negative scenarios or "bad luck."This is possible,  It is even probable to do this.   Now, the next objective is to design for yourself a system of interacting with this endeavor that gives you the greatest probability of winning.   A system designed to maximize your advantage when you have the advantage, and has you betting the minimum at ALL OTHER TIMES.  (the winning bonus of the max bet to hit the max payout royaldoes not compensate for what you lose by betting the max at all negative sceanrio times).   I know this is not according to the typical theory, but i believe typical doesn't make money.  If it did everyone would be winning, and thats not the case.This is what successful stock traders do, its what successful blackjack players do, and what successful poker players do.   If you are savvy enough, it is what you could do as a successful video poker player.It is up to you do understand this if you choose, and design something that works and also have it be a method that you can follow based on your personality and tolerance for heat (or volatility and risk).For six years I have applie this method with desirable results, in video pokera method that works for me.    The first two years i was within breakeven with my results at plus/minus 2% bankroll for at that time jacks or better.   My main game is now bonus poker because its lower volatility (2 to 1 for two pair) than the other more complicated games.   The past years after those first two have been more profitable each year.  My method that works for me is based on testing.  I still use the basic strategies that are widely published for bonus poker except when i have two pair that includes aces i drop the other pair and a few other minor variations. I contributed this so that maybe this information might spark further work by at least one other person.   There are many ways to skin the cat, and if you are feeling that the one way promoted by all the casinos, publishing companies and books on the subject don't really work, maybe this will spur you to find something that works for you.Thank you.

[kjohn]

Very well stated.....I  don't play with 100% accuracy  but it's by choice on just certain plays...I've changed my MO this year from last and I'm doing much better....Just a few changes that work for my bankroll...and the fact that what you said about the programs"rnd generators have many, many differenct varieties"and "those rnd generators are, in fact, programmed by humans"  certainly makes sense to me...  Thanks for your pt. of view...

[shadowman]

I have heard similar theories many times. The problem is no one really knows whether they are in a losing streak until after it is over. Many winning streaks have small embedded losing streaks. Nor do you know when it will end. That's because the length of any streaks is also random. Hence, there is no way to take advantage of streaks. Just when you decide you are in a losing streak it might turn around. Or, vice versa.
 
BTW, in games like Blackjack the odds (probabilities) change during play. This does not happen in standard VP. In areas like the stock market, you are not dealing with random events. It's more deterministic chaos which requires a different approach.
 
Finally, the vast majority of people do not put in the time and effort to understand VP strategies. That is why casinos can put in good paytables. Where I play the most there are hundreds of VP machines, only 8 of those have a good paytable. I can play at those machines most of the time while other machines are quite busy. That tells you all you need to know about the effort most folks put into understanding VP. Don't get me wrong, when I worked full time and was raising a family I was exactly the same. It gets down to priorities very often.