Considering a change in strategy

[roveer]

For those who recognize my name, I've been posting pics in the "stories" section for the past year with my super times pay, Ultimate X & single line wins.  As many have already commented this is not usually a long term winning outcome as those hand pays seems to cost every bit as much or more than they are worth.
 
So my last trip to Vegas (this month) has gotten me thinking.  Time to dial down the stratedgy, put in some curbs and start putting some money back into my pocket.
 
I've read a few posts that seem to point to 500 bucks as a good TTQ (Time to quit) level and my experiences have basically shown that I can usually achieve this goal on just about every visit.  It's the insanity the ensues during my late night, multi-hand madness that usually leaves me dry.
 
I'm wondering if anyone has put together a good set of limites and games that have brought them decent returns.  I'm a DDB fan and have that pretty well dialed in through training.  Usually 93-95% perfect play.
 
I do love my STP but to be honest I've never gotten one of my "good or great" hands on a multiplier and while I might not abondon the game completely I feel I have to remove it off the top of the list and put it in the "for fun" category.  Same for Ultimate X, although this past Vegas trip I did have some really great and exciting UX play.  I do however remember all the times where nothing happened except my money dissapearing.
 
I see a lot of folks are playing DDB (my favorite variation) single line.  Is this something I should consider?  I'd probably play .5 or $1 denominations.  I'd like to keep my bankroll at 1,600+whatever casino freeplay I have, which is usually a couple hundred)
 
I've not been one to go crazy over pay tables, but I do understand the statistical significance they hold and would be willing to make it a more important consideration.  Problem seems to be in AC where I play mostly it's hard to come by the better pay tables (unless I'm just not searching hard enough).
 
So, to boil it all down.  I'm looking to mature my play beyond the flashy draw of STP and UX and hopefully improve my return even if it means stoping and taking home a lot less than I "think" I can.  Of course my current system seems to have me taking home very little even with lots of fancy pics and handpays.
 
Roveer
 

[shadowman]

There is no betting strategy that will change your long term results. You are just as likely to start seeing $400 as your high point when you are looking for $500. Random means any result is possible. You would do much better to look for the best paytable. I believe vpfree2 also covers AC so that might be a place to start.  It's great that you are working on your accuracy. That will pay off over the long term as well. However, the EV of the games you play is probably the most important factor. Even if you're playing perfectly a 98% return still means you are going to lose.

[backsider]

There is no betting strategy that will change your long term results. You are just as likely to start seeing $400 as your high point when you are looking for $500. Random means any result is possible. You would do much better to look for the best paytable. I believe vpfree2 also covers AC so that might be a place to start.  It's great that you are working on your accuracy. That will pay off over the long term as well. However, the EV of the games you play is probably the most important factor. Even if you're playing perfectly a 98% return still means you are going to lose.
 My thinking is that if what this player has said is true, that he has mostly been ahead by at least $500 in each of his visits win or lose, and if he has the bankroll to regularly get him there then he will for sure do better overall. I don't see him as trying to change his longrun results as much as trying to alter his ways of heavy betting (and drinking?) on a casino visit as the day matures. For many people, strategy changes are much less important that attitude and behavior adjustments.  I used to hit the pools, bars and have a wild time and THEN start gambling. I almost always lost. Just by switching all that around has helped me do a lot better over time.

[roveer]

[QUOTE=shadowman] There is no betting strategy that will change your long term results. You are just as likely to start seeing $400 as your high point when you are looking for $500. Random means any result is possible.
 
You would do much better to look for the best paytable. I believe vpfree2 also covers AC so that might be a place to start.
 
It's great that you are working on your accuracy. That will pay off over the long term as well. However, the EV of the games you play is probably the most important factor. Even if you're playing perfectly a 98% return still means you are going to lose.
 
My thinking is that if what this player has said is true, that he has mostly been ahead by at least $500 in each of his visits win or lose, and if he has the bankroll to regularly get him there then he will for sure do better overall. I don't see him as trying to change his longrun results as much as trying to alter his ways of heavy betting (and drinking?) on a casino visit as the day matures. For many people, strategy changes are much less important that attitude and behavior adjustments.
 
I used to hit the pools, bars and have a wild time and THEN start gambling. I almost always lost. Just by switching all that around has helped me do a lot better over time.[/QUOTE]



 
Most of the time I go by myself to the casino.  I usually look at it like going to work (but without the dread of a job I don't like).  I'm in it to try and apply my perfect play stratedgy, but what almost always stops me is that I usually "can't stop"  I do drink when I play, but with few exceptions the drinking has not caused me to hold incorrect cards.  What does seem to be the problem is that  I'm always looking for the bigger and bigger hit.  I can usually always find myself up 500-1000 during a visit, but usually play that off trying to get up 3-4k which never happens.
 
My thinking is that I need to disaplin myself to leave when up.  That over the long run will most certinly yield a positive result.
 
I also guess I would looking for some wisdom about my flashy STP and UX fixation.  I've posted and discussed before and gotten some comments about those games being gimics.  Again, if most disiplined VP players stay away and stick with single line machines, than that's something for me to consider.  Again, I'm looking to mature my play and if it means lowering my expectations (leaving on 500-1000 wins), and playing more productive games (ditcheing STP and UX), than I'm ready to consider those options.  I can't say that I've read any posts saying those are great games in terms of return, so I'm throwing it out there for discussion.
 
I appreciate everyone's comments.  This is a learning process for me.  And don't worry, it's always fun to me even if I do approach it from a very detailed approach.
 
Roveer
 

[Frank Kneeland]

I've read a few posts that seem to point to 500 bucks as a good TTQ
(Time to quit) level and my experiences have basically shown that I can
usually achieve this goal on just about every visit. There is a point of illogic in your statement if I understand TTQ correctly. If I don't then I apologize in advance for this post. You have not quit if you intend to play again in your lifetime. Discontinuing play after an imaginary line of demarcation and resuming another day is not quiting.  You start right back at where you left off.Leaving the casino ahead is a logical fallacy pure and simple. You are only "ahead" if your life-time result is positive (daily results are pointless except for tax records). Anything else is self delusion, akin to losing $1,500 to hit a $1,000 JP and braging to your friends that you "WON" a $1,000--when the real result was down $500 (for the day).I hope you can understand what I'm saying and why I'm saying it. A clear logical mind is necessary to gamble successfully. I fear you have listened to the wrong posts.I believe Shadowman and New2vp can back me up on this one. If you don't believe me listen to them.If you are playing with an edge and you are properly bankrolled, you should play as much as possible. If you aren't playing with an edge, you should play as little as possible or not at all. If you really have "habits" that require things like TTQ limits to control yourself, then again you should not be playing at all. A loss of control is a sure sign of gambling addiction. Please be well.The poem fails when it strays too far from the song, and the song fails when it strays too far from the dance.~Jimmie Dale GilmoreCheers and best wishes,~FK

[roveer]

[QUOTE=roveer]I've read a few posts that seem to point to 500 bucks as a good TTQ (Time to quit) level and my experiences have basically shown that I can usually achieve this goal on just about every visit.

There is a point of illogic in your statement if I understand TTQ correctly. If I don't then I apologize in advance for this post.

You have not quit if you intend to play again in your lifetime. Discontinuing play after an imaginary line of demarcation and resuming another day is not quiting.  You start right back at where you left off.

Leaving the casino ahead is a logical fallacy pure and simple. You are only "ahead" if your life-time result is positive (daily results are pointless except for tax records). Anything else is self delusion, akin to losing $1,500 to hit a $1,000 JP and braging to your friends that you "WON" a $1,000--when the real result was down $500 (for the day).

I hope you can understand what I'm saying and why I'm saying it. A clear logical mind is necessary to gamble successfully. I fear you have listened to the wrong posts.

I believe Shadowman and New2vp can back me up on this one. If you don't believe me listen to them.

If you are playing with an edge and you are properly bankrolled, you should play as much as possible. If you aren't playing with an edge, you should play as little as possible or not at all. If you really have "habits" that require things like TTQ limits to control yourself, then again you should not be playing at all. A loss of control is a sure sign of gambling addiction. Please be well.

The poem fails when it strays too far from the song, and the song fails when it strays too far from the dance.
~Jimmie Dale Gilmore

Cheers and best wishes,

~FK
[/QUOTE]


 
I appreciate the comments.  I would consider my play borderline addiction.  I'm not losing the mortgage, but I'm not often happy with my outcome.  That's why I'm trying to get a better stratedgy.  I thought I was onto something with setting limits.  Based on your post It sounds like I should select a game that I play well (which would be DDB), a denomination which I can properly bankroll (suggestions to where I can find proper bankroll for denom/period of play) and then play as well as you can.  I think I'd be happy with that.  It think I have to consider whether drinking while playing is having a negative effect on judgement as to swiching denominations or games.  I have found over time that drinking doesn't seem to have a negative effect on holding hands.  Those are so engrained from working with the trainers I don't find myself failing there.  If I do, I usually see it during my hold sweep where I double check my held cards before hitting deal.  If anything, I find there is a point where the game goes totally dead and I keep plodding along.  If I were to take a break, switch machines, stop all together that would probably make a big difference on my outcomes. 
 
A lot of people would say i've taken all the fun out of it because I'm so technical about my approach.  To me, most of the fun (besides putting together big hands), is executing my stratedgy and trying to optimize all possible aspects.  I know the statistics and paytables will determine the outcome, but getting things as close to perfect as possible is fun for me.
 
Haven't gotten any comments about staying away from STP or UX.  What's everyone's feelings about that?  Afterall I'm paying a vig for those multipliers.  Interestingly during my trip to Vegas this year one the 1st and 2nd day the multipliers were so dead on STP It was beyond stastical in my eyes.  I'm talking 100+ hands with no multiplier.  Than early on day 3 it was as if it reset.  Probably 10 multipliers over 50 hands and then more normal 1 in 16 for the rest of my time there.  There were 2 machines out of 5 that seemed to go back to normal and the rest stayed dead.  Seemed so beyond stats I was really starting to believe that something was amiss.  I've never seen STP so streaky and then a total reset back to normal.  I know in stats it can happy, but boy oh boy, across 5 machines, and then almost as if it went back to normal.  Sorry for the off topic comment, but I wanted to get it out there.
 
Roveer

[Frank Kneeland]

I'm off to a book signing right now. I'll reply more later.  You are also welcome to email me at frank@progressivevp.com if you'd like to talk privately.I'll do the best I can to advise you. It's so hard to know good advice from bad with so much "advice" in general flying around out there. Take care.~FK

[spxChrome]

Another classic example of what you read in books and what goes on in real life.  Writing about it, reading about it and mathing about it is all entertaining but its what actually happens is the truth.

[shadowman]

One thing you have to understand is that streaky is random. A non-streaky situation over time is NOT random. Many people don't understand that. Once again I'll state a mathematical fact. No betting strategy can change your results. It may seem that way in the short term. In fact, that's how most betting strategies are born. A person sees a "pattern" and tries to emulate what appears to work. The only problem is patterns in random events disappear eventually. The good news is betting strategies don't decrease your EV so, for the most part, it's no harm, no foul. It sounds like you have a tendency to start off more conservative and whenever you hit something good, you try to move up (in denomination) and try for a bigger win. This type of approach means you have a small bankroll to hit the next big hand and will fail far more often than it succeeds simply because you can't play as much at the higher denomination. Once again, since you consider winning a big part of your enjoyment I would suggest investigating the opportunities (in terms of EV) and start looking for your best bets. The fact you know DDB means learning a new game will be much quicker. It really does get easier to learn when you know more games. Once you understand what else is available does not mean you have to completely give up other games. However, try and put most of your effort into the best games and use the others as a short break.

[stephmo]

Roveer,I can relate to your dilemma. I too, love the thrill and the rush of STP and UX. I usually refer to myself as an "elephant hunter". I always look for the big hit, and it is like being a junkie. Most of the time I lose, and it is usually due to lack of discipline. Generally, as some point I am even, or even a little ahead. The problem is that I don't get to a casino more than every 6 weeks or so, and when I go, I WANT to play. I am there for about 24 hours, and I don't want to see sights, have a massage, visit the pool, or even eat. I just want to play. Honestly, I force myself to do "normal" stuff (eat, sleep, visit the bathroom, etc), but it is a push. The way I cope with this, is that I set aside a fixed amount of money, and go in with the assumption that I am going to lose it all. I start each year with a 401G set aside strictly for the casino, and it is usually depleted by years end.  For me, I play for the thrill, and the joy of "losing" myself in sounds and sights in a casino. It is my form of entertainment, or therapy. I have friends that love visiting the theater, or buying handbags, or shoes. This is what I love. But I am realistic about it. I play for the thrill, and don't care if I lose. Most of the time, especially playing DDB multihand, STP or UX, you are going to LOSE. This is a very volatile game. The hits can be great, but you need to understand that going in, it is a negative proposition. Personally, I would find single hand, non multiplier VP boring, but if you are concerned about winning, I think that's the way to go. On that last UX hit, you were betting $25. To me, that's a very expensive hand. I see that you won nicely on that one, but it probably took quite a bit to get there. In short, I do understand your dilemma, but my advice is to either abandon those games entirely or accept that you play for the thrill and will lose.