Nightmare Strategy!

[backsider]

There seems to be a point  everyone is missing. Short term/long, none of that matters at the moment in time when you first walk up to a machine and pick a path by deciding what to play and how to play it.Imagine for a moment that you had no intention of ever playing a hand in your life and someone asked you which machine in a casino was the best game. You would have to answer them based on the pay-table. No other information would be available.How many hands you intend to play in your lifetime has no impact on this pivotal  moment where you have the choice to pick a game with high return or one with low return...and you then have the choice of playing correctly or ignoring proper strategy. Regardless of which path you take, each will lead to a destination (perhaps the same one), fraught with dangers along the way and some elegant vistas upon which to gaze.But here's the thing, no matter where you end up, you will always have made a bad choice if you picked anything other than the safest path. Surviving a narrow rocky path along a cliff face can never make a decision to take that route a "good idea" when you could have walked down a gentle forest lane.When you meet your friends on the other side they won't cheer you and say, "Wow, wish we'd taken that route, looks like it was fun". No they'll say, "You idiot, why didn't you follow us, it was much safer."Like life, gambling it isn't about the destination, it's about the journey and the decisions you make along the way.  People are so result biased in gambling they hardly ever see this and use any win to justify the worst of decisions. Heard the expression, "The end doesn't justifies the means." Well it is just as true in gambling as it is anywhere else, just a lot harder for people to wrap their head around.Try this mental experiment. You feel lucky and take a shot at Megabucks you happen to get extremely fortunate and overcome the 15% hold and eek out a $500 win. Everyone else on the bank lost their buts. Now your child (just 21) with their saved allowance ($200) walks up and asks you if they should play the same machine you just did. What do you say?People often have an easier time advising loved ones in the correct choices of action than they do following their own advice. If you think, "what would I tell someone else?" and follow it yourself you can put this to work for you.Here's my suggestion: Forget about how long you intend to play or how many hands you'll get out before you die. Live in that perfect single moment of choice and ask yourself, what's the best game I could be playing right now with the highest return.The road is random, so there is no telling exactly where it will lead, but when you reflect back to this moment of decision, you will always know that when given a choice you picked the safest path and your conscious will be clear. ~FK I follow all that you wrote, but I believe you missed something very important. About 5 years ago I met someone who became my friend and is my best friend today, and the reason is because of what he told me. He said, "if I always take the safest path to my destination, a very uneventful and therefore uninteresting life I will have." He continued "successful, vibrant and happy people are those who step off the path, take risks, and follow their newfound direction with purpose and conviction" I used to, but now I dont want to be someone who can look back and feel ok that I took the safest path. So boring and even predictable. In this country were all given the opportunity to excel, and staying safe isn't a part of that. My 20000000 cents  

[Frank Kneeland]

 I follow all that you wrote, but I believe you missed something very important. About 5 years ago I met someone who became my friend and is my best friend today, and the reason is because of what he told me. He said, "if I always take the safest path to my destination, a very uneventful and therefore uninteresting life I will have." He continued "successful, vibrant and happy people are those who step off the path, take risks, and follow their newfound direction with purpose and conviction" I used to, but now I dont want to be someone who can look back and feel ok that I took the safest path. So boring and even predictable. In this country were all given the opportunity to excel, and staying safe isn't a part of that. My 20000000 cents 
As always you bring a different and valid argument to the table. I ask only this: When looking at all the people who have taken chances and succeeded in life, don't forget to include ALL the people who have taken chances and failed. Add up the results and make an unbiased decision about your future based on everything that can happen, not just the happy stories of sucess told by the winners.History is written by the winners, but the future belongs to all of us.~FKP.S. I'm saving this thread and your comments and turning them into an article. Good job on provoking thought.

[spxChrome]

He said, "if I always take the safest path to my destination, a very uneventful and therefore uninteresting life I will have." He continued "successful, vibrant and happy people are those who step off the path, take risks, and follow their newfound direction with purpose and conviction"

 
lol that is why we have TDB 

[jm002546]

I personally think that a huge majority of VP players make enough mistakes to negate a positive payout machine.  Including me.  I find humor in the statements I read where a player states that they lost money even though they played at 100% accuracy.

[spxChrome]

I personally think that a huge majority of VP players make enough mistakes to negate a positive payout machine.  Including me.  I find humor in the statements I read where a player states that they lost money even though they played at 100% accuracy.
 
I agree... so do you think there are people who make money year after year playing only VP?

[Frank Kneeland]

I agree... so do you think there are people who make money year after year playing only VP?Uhh...???.What exactly do you all think I've been doing for the last 23 years? Hooking on the side? Opps better not answer that!To my knowledge their are roughly 25 full-time professional VP players in Vegas that do nothing else to this day and have been at it for the last two decades. I'm am no longer in that category as I now have some other income. That's down from about 300 in the mid 90's when the large teams reigned, if you count teams players as pros.It is a very small elite group, but yes, they do exist. Try looking under rocks or even better, high progressives.~FK

[shadowman]

In addition to the full time pros there are also some part time APers. Many of these also win money every year. Most don't play at the high denominations of the pros. Some just play at the quarter level and make only a few grand a year. However, they do win most years.


 
Other cities and states where positive games exist also have a few pros/APers. The numbers aren't large but they do exist.
 
I think most of the people that understand the math have moved to regular poker. More money to be made if you're talented.

[backsider]

[QUOTE=spxChrome]I agree... so do you think there are people who make money year after year playing only VP?Uhh...???.What exactly do you all think I've been doing for the last 23 years? Hooking on the side? Opps better not answer that!To my knowledge their are roughly 25 full-time professional VP players in Vegas that do nothing else to this day and have been at it for the last two decades. I'm am no longer in that category as I now have some other income. That's down from about 300 in the mid 90's when the large teams reigned, if you count teams players as pros.It is a very small elite group, but yes, they do exist. Try looking under rocks or even better, high progressives.~FK[/QUOTE]
 So easy to say.......Perception sometimes comes at a very high cost.

[brmcc74]

I personally think that a huge majority of VP players make enough mistakes to negate a positive payout machine.  Including me.  I find humor in the statements I read where a player states that they lost money even though they played at 100% accuracy.
thats a good point. My whole argument with this winning thing is that I have played Optimum games(Vegas) with a 99.8% average correct hand hold. This means that out of 1000 hands, Ill miss 2. As close to perfection as I care to get. Now add in the cash back and points that I generate on my card. So playing a 99.6% game(Locally available) with a 99.8% hold, Im at 99.4. Then add the comps which would still hyothetically push me over 100%. Well it just doesnt come out that way. Im not doubting that people can be lucky and stay over 100%, but I can not lie to myself. Id rather be lucky anyday. It is still best to play best strategy and pay tables but dont quit your day job, unless youre gonna write a book or something. Now, I play for fun but still with the best edge I can find.

[shadowman]

If a group of people were to play a 100% game then over half of them would lose. Average results will fall into something close to a bell curve with the mean still below the ER since all players do make errors. To win at a game close to 100% you really do have to be a little lucky. Of course, your results will still be better than most of those who play 99% games, but not all as the bell curves will overlap to a certain degree.
 
Once again, there are no guarantees. But, the higher the ER of the games being played the better the odds become that you will walk away a long term winner. And, if you can find games well over 100% then those odds become quite high.
 
That is why Frank and his team looked for progressive jackpots at 102% or 104% return.