Nightmare Strategy!

[brmcc74]

Well put and I couldnt agree more.

[rascal]

I think I have posted before that for quite a few years I was in a long-term relationship with a woman who worked at several levels on the executive side of first a casino, and then a casino holding corp. During that time I picked up some interesting info about VP ---- that is, interesting to me, although perhaps well-known to pros like Frank Kneeland.
 
One of the most telling things that I learned is that the average payback on a VP machine at her casinos in LV and nearby areas was generally in the mid-80's, even if the paytable was based for 99% +/- return. Rarely if ever did they have a machine that had an annual payback of more than 90%. At certain "touristy" strip casinos, the average payback was much lower --- sometimes low to the point of disbelief.
 
Point being, with the exception of professionally played machines, I think that most VP players make many more mental errors than they realize. This is especially true when non-regulars are playing. To me, all the paytable percentage means is that in theory it is possible --- but in the reality over the long term, unless it is being played by a true pro or pro team, not a chance.
 
Another thing I learned is that some casino promotion folks love to get on the internet and post fiction about their big jackpots at their casinos. That's why when I read on the various forums about posters who hit a big jackpot, I always look to see if it is a new poster or a regular. Photos mean little, as these are a dime a dozen. Not that someone posting about a big jackpot should influence all of us to run to that casino to play, but I am sure it helps to build the image of a certain casino as a "winning" place to play.
 
To answer the basic question of this thread --- and I apologize for straying so far off the subject --- I am one of those who can truthfully show a small profit over quite a few years of playing VP and other casino games. However, this is primarily because of one very large and two fairly large jackpots that were as much due to luck rather than any skill I might possess. Had it not been for these jackpots, I think that after I honestly deducted expenses I would be showing a loss of some sort. If you have ever attended one of "Bob Dancer's" classes, I am sure you realize that he would rather be playing VP than standing there trying to teach theory to the unwashed. That he teaches classes and undertakes other revenue-generating opportunities in addition to his VP play speaks loudly.

[damule]

If a group of people were to play a 100% game then over half of them would lose. Average results will fall into something close to a bell curve with the mean still below the ER since all players do make errors. To win at a game close to 100% you really do have to be a little lucky. Of course, your results will still be better than most of those who play 99% games, but not all as the bell curves will overlap to a certain degree.
 
Once again, there are no guarantees. But, the higher the ER of the games being played the better the odds become that you will walk away a long term winner. And, if you can find games well over 100% then those odds become quite high.
 
That is why Frank and his team looked for progressive jackpots at 102% or 104% return.

 
Talking about curves (not those kind of curves Frank!)...The more hands one plays using optimal strategy (no matter what the game or paytable), the closer one will be at achieving the expected return. One may never reach the exact expected return, but the more hands played with an optimal strategy the closer one gets. This can be an example of a "tangent curve."
 
This is also why playing proper strategy, not using special plays and gut decisions, and playing only the best available paytables are vitally important to be successful at video poker.
 
In many parts of the country games with over 100% return are not regularly available, Therefore, the expected result should not be positive. However, with that knowledge, it still stands that even recreational players should only be playing the best available paytables with optimal strategy to prolong their playing experience and reduce expected losses. 

[shadowman]

In many parts of the country games with over 100% return are not regularly available, Therefore, the expected result should not be positive. However, with that knowledge, it still stands that even recreational players should only be playing the best available paytables with optimal strategy to prolong their playing experience and reduce expected loses. 


 
This is very important to understand. Not everyone will have the odds on their side, but everyone has the opportunity to reduce their losses.

[Frank Kneeland]

Talking about curves (not those kind of curves Frank!)...But speaking of THOSE kinds of curves. I was invited to a private room party last night in one of the Sky Villas at the Palms. I met an amazing girl from Canada that speaks four languages and tonight we are attending a Naughty Nighty party together. If I miss posting for a few days it's because I'm the process of doing a Bayesian analysis. There's nothing (chi) square about this gal. It may take some time to cycle through the permutations.Wish me luck, I've been single now for nearly a year and it's getting to be a real drag.~If there's one thing life has taught me, it's that there is a lot more than one thing life can teach you. ~FKP.S. DO NOT EXPECT A JACKPOT PICTURE:) P.P.S.
I can personally attest to one aspect of pro gambling that hasn't been
discussed much here. It's a wonderful way to stay single and a very
lonely life. I would never want to encourage anyone to do what I do if
they weren't already determined to play anyway. I hope this message has
come out in enough of my posts.

[shadowman]

P.S. DO NOT EXPECT A JACKPOT PICTURE:) 


 
Darn!

[damule]

 
To answer the basic question of this thread --- and I apologize for straying so far off the subject --- I am one of those who can truthfully show a small profit over quite a few years of playing VP and other casino games. However, this is primarily because of one very large and two fairly large jackpots that were as much due to luck rather than any skill I might possess. Had it not been for these jackpots, I think that after I honestly deducted expenses I would be showing a loss of some sort. If you have ever attended one of "Bob Dancer's" classes, I am sure you realize that he would rather be playing VP than standing there trying to teach theory to the unwashed. That he teaches classes and undertakes other revenue-generating opportunities in addition to his VP play speaks loudly.
 
rascal,
 
Keep in mind that those huge jackpots (I'm assuming the 10 play STP 10X low quads w/kicker at dollars in Laughlin a few years back for $80k included) need to be a part of your long-term results. One needs to consider all possible results when looking at overall expected return. It would be like looking at a DDB 10/6 game that returns just over 100% and saying that without the royal flush it's only a 98% game. If one plays long enough he will cash in on large jackpots like you did. That's why progressives can be very profitable plays. True, one can run a bad streak and not hit the progressive royals and be down quite a bit. But as true as randomness can be, that luck can turn to good and the more hands played the closer to the expected return one gets.
 
To make a fair to good living solely from playing video poker would be nearly impossible today. This is why many of the more popular pros such as Dancer, Frank Kneeland, Jean Scott and so on are using their video poker experiences to springboard onto other ventures. And there is nothing wrong with this, in fact, it's a very wise thing to do. There are other self-proclaimed pros who haven't put in the time or effort and as Judge Judy would say, "just flap their gums" about short cuts to winning at video poker.
 
There are still plenty of advantage plays available to make a nice supplemental income. It just takes more time and effort to find those plays today than a few years ago.

[backsider]

[QUOTE=damule] In many parts of the country games with over 100% return are not regularly available, Therefore, the expected result should not be positive. However, with that knowledge, it still stands that even recreational players should only be playing the best available paytables with optimal strategy to prolong their playing experience and reduce expected loses. 


 
This is very important to understand. Not everyone will have the odds on their side, but everyone has the opportunity to reduce their losses.[/QUOTE]
 Im more inclined to go with what poster rascal explained. It doesnt really matter what the return percentage says, the machine will be hardpressed to come anywhere near the advertisement no matter who plays it. No matter who plays it. I dont believe any player plays anything near correct for as long as they play either, just as rascal believes and probably knows from his woman friend. When I read about the 102% and 104% plays and then read about these pros who say they play 2 machines fast at once, all I can see is more errors because of speed and confusion. Even simple errors that wouldnt be made had they played just one machine.

[damule]

[QUOTE=shadowman][QUOTE=damule] In many parts of the country games with over 100% return are not regularly available, Therefore, the expected result should not be positive. However, with that knowledge, it still stands that even recreational players should only be playing the best available paytables with optimal strategy to prolong their playing experience and reduce expected loses. 


 
This is very important to understand. Not everyone will have the odds on their side, but everyone has the opportunity to reduce their losses.[/QUOTE]
 
Im more inclined to go with what poster rascal explained. It doesnt really matter what the return percentage says, the machine will be hardpressed to come anywhere near the advertisement no matter who plays it. No matter who plays it. I dont believe any player plays anything near correct for as long as they play either, just as rascal believes and probably knows from his woman friend. When I read about the 102% and 104% plays and then read about these pros who say they play 2 machines fast at once, all I can see is more errors because of speed and confusion. Even simple errors that wouldnt be made had they played just one machine.[/QUOTE]

 
 
Believe what you may. But there are some people out there that can play 2 machines at the same time at lightning fast speed and have an error rate of less than 0.01% which is negligible. I can't do it on 2 machines but I've witnessed it done. Follow along:
 
We're talking 2400-2500 hands per hour total on 2 machines single line $5 with a progressive over $30,000 on 8/5 BP. My math won't be perfect here, I'll need help from Shadow, Frank, or New on this, but I estimate the return of about 100.25%. I believe that's over $150/hr theoretical return. Even with an error rate of 1% (and this player was closer to an error rate of 0.01%), that would still be a theoretical return of $148.50/hr.
 
I can't play that fast, but still at 600-800 hands per hour with a negligible error rate there is still a positive play on this example of $40-50/hr. So, to say that winning money playing video poker can not be done is just a foolish statement. It can be done, has been done, and will continue to be done by those who are disciplined enough to learn correct strategy, use correct strategy and play only 100% plus pay tables. Is luck a factor? Yes, in the short term. But over the course of millions of hands played the expected return of those games will be very near the result achieved.

[shadowman]

I have watched top notch players playing two machines and they do not make many errors. There are always a few people that can't accept this.
 
There are those who say "can't" and there are those who go ahead and " just do it".