Measuring Change

[Frank Kneeland]

Welcome to this months VP related thought provoking data accumulating post.As
I'm sure we are all aware there are many different viewpoints going
around in the world of gambling in general and video poker specifically.
It is relevant to my current projects to get a measure of the ability
for VP information to effect change in people's opinions. My current
research would seem to indicate that information order is the single
largest determiner of opinion and belief. In other words, whatever a
person is exposed to first (and believes) accounts for an 85% chance
they will still believe that after being exposed to different
information later. In the studies done on this, the accuracy of the
information had almost no effect to the final belief statistics. If
exposed to false information first and accurate information second 85%
believed what they were told first. If exposed to accurate information
first and false info second, again the belief rates were still 85%
believing whatever came first.Obviously, this has far reaching
application to a discussion on VP strategy. If you see the connection
great. If you don't, I can't state it here or I'll bias the results of
this fact finding mission.So here's the challenge: If your
opinions, playing strategy, or beliefs on casinos or anything VP
related have changed in anyway as a result of reading books or being a
member of a VP forum like this one, please state:1.What belief has changed?2.What was the primary factor in your change of opinion?I
ask that we keep this thread free from negative comments about what
people currently believe. The point of this is to find out if changing
beliefs about VP is possible...NOT WHAT THOSE BELIEFS ARE OR ARE NOT.It
is not relevant to this discussion what you believe about VP, only
whether your beliefs have ever changed due to new information.~FK

[backsider]

1.What belief has changed?Until this year Ive always believed all vp machines in rigulated places were as random as if a dealer were dealing and shuffling the cards. Now I do not. 2.What was the primary factor in your change of opinion?My overall business sense during difficult economic times and internet reading. Businesses take desperate measures when faced with serious change and the casinos are not immune to any of it. It has to be easy to alter a machine here and a machine there without anyone else knowing, and inspectors (if they really do check anything through the years) can be strategically led away from those machines or bribed if needed, which is all normal procedure in the world of struggling businesses.

[Frank Kneeland]

1.What belief has changed?Until this year Ive always believed all vp machines in rigulated places were as random as if a dealer were dealing and shuffling the cards. Now I do not. 2.What was the primary factor in your change of opinion?My overall business sense during difficult economic times and internet reading. Businesses take desperate measures when faced with serious change and the casinos are not immune to any of it. It has to be easy to alter a machine here and a machine there without anyone else knowing, and inspectors (if they really do check anything through the years) can be strategically led away from those machines or bribed if needed, which is all normal procedure in the world of struggling businesses.Excellent. I would point out the following. Here a VP related belief changed, but not due to something someone told you about VP. The science of belief predicts this. Long standing beliefs only tend to change in the face of new information (gained over time) that alters core beliefs which lead to new conclusions...and an emotional element is usually also needed.In other words, people don't change their opinions unless they must for some reason. Hardly anyone walks away from a chosen path that is working FOR THEM, even if offered a more logical alternative. For belief to change an alternative must exist AND their current strategy must be failing in some way.Please keep original replies coming to the initial post. ~FK

[EDC1977]

I always thought the machines weren't random. After listening to several people's feedback and a bit of reading on my part made me see just how random the "RNG" has to be. the cost and consequence of losing a gaming license far outweighs a few rigged machines. Research the American coin co. scandal and you'll understand. No reason for me to think otherwise. Sure it seems like I have more losing sessions than winning but i don't set win/loss limits nor do I set daily limits on bankroll. I don't document my play but I know enough to see that it's pretty balanced over the number of years that I've played. I also know the payback % is better with denom except vp where the % is stated right in front of you.

[Frank Kneeland]

I always thought the machines weren't random. After listening to several people's feedback and a bit of reading on my part made me see just how random the "RNG" has to be. the cost and consequence of losing a gaming license far outweighs a few rigged machines. Research the American coin co. scandal and you'll understand. No reason for me to think otherwise. Sure it seems like I have more losing sessions than winning but i don't set win/loss limits nor do I set daily limits on bankroll. I don't document my play but I know enough to see that it's pretty balanced over the number of years that I've played. I also know the payback % is better with denom except vp where the % is stated right in front of you.OK I believe this puts you in a fairly rare category. To be clear: you went from thinking machines were non-random, to believing them fair and random (more or less) and you did this because of what you read?Was there an emotional component to the change in thinking?How long did it take?~FK

[jim18]

1.  What belief has changed?  In the beginning I was lead to believe that by playing VP in an educated way that I had a good chance of making a profit.2.  What was the primary reason for the change?  I can think of two reasons.  First, my lack of success over  at least 10 years of VP playing.  Second, from reading articles in “Strictly Slots” I have come to accept that under normal conditions, that a educated player will go bankrupt about 95% of the time.Second point.1.  What belief has changed?  I thought that if I read advice from VP experts, that these people were trying to help me improve my game.2.  What was the primary reason for the change?  Now my opinion is that these VP experts are in bed with the casino industry.  Of course not all experts are guilty.  It is only good business that if a expert can make money with books, teaching, and software, then by working for the casinos they can make even more money.

[damule]

1.What belief has changed?
 
That most people have common sense and will follow obvious logic.

 
 
 
 
2.What was the primary factor in your change of opinion?

Reading and writing in video poker forums.

[backsider]

1.  What belief has changed?  In the beginning I was lead to believe that by playing VP in an educated way that I had a good chance of making a profit.2.  What was the primary reason for the change?  I can think of two reasons.  First, my lack of success over  at least 10 years of VP playing.  Second, from reading articles in “Strictly Slots” I have come to accept that under normal conditions, that a educated player will go bankrupt about 95% of the time.Second point.1.  What belief has changed?  I thought that if I read advice from VP experts, that these people were trying to help me improve my game.2.  What was the primary reason for the change?  Now my opinion is that these VP experts are in bed with the casino industry.  Of course not all experts are guilty.  It is only good business that if a expert can make money with books, teaching, and software, then by working for the casinos they can make even more money.

 Jim, I salute you for having the guts to say what you believe in. Had I said any of that I believe the clikity clique would be on my case faster than they can hit the DRAW button, with all types of insinuations.

[mightwin]

Jim18 - thank you.  If I could write that well - I would claim you stole my words.

[ansoda]

As with Backsider, I started my VP play with the conviction that if I practiced, read and asked questions of the experienced players(on this site),I would be a winner more often than not.I would go to a casino and play, and play, and play. I belived that the random nature and odds of the game would eventually kick in and I would win fairly consistantly.
    As years have passed , I have come to realize that the above does not work. This is what the casinos want you to believe in. You may win a bit, but if you continue to play you will give it back, and then some. This is their business and they are good at it!
   Well, now I am the wiser. With poor pay tables, very volatile new games, and diminishing comps, the casinos have made their point.
   I now play to a very limited bankroll ($200), and IF I hit a win, any win, I am out of there. Over the last two years I have played as little as 20 minutes when I hit a royal playing .25 ddb , got up and left the casino. Next trip, played trip duces for about 2 hours staying fairly even when i found myself up $75. Got up and left.
It is hard to do, especially if you like to gamble. But if you want to come out  ahead this is what it takes.
I can honestly say that over the last two years I have been to a casino 12 times and have not lost. I have played as little as 20 minutes and as long as 4 hours. I have won as little as $40 and as much as $1300.I am probably averaging about double my bankroll.
Playing VP is not as much fun as it use to be, but neither am I.
So to sum it up I have given up my belief in "eventually", and now believe in "right here, right now"!! IT works for me.