Bankroll amounts

[Frank Kneeland]

The $9,000 figure I gave was for 8/5 JoB progressives which we usually played around $12,000 with at least 1% Meter-Rise and expected to hit around $13,600 for a profit of about $4,000 after wages. The great majority of the time we won. Ratio of wins to losses was about 4 to 1, with most losses being light. Once we ran the Hilton Dollar up to $28,000 before hitting it and only lost $10,000. Of course until we hit it we were stuck $38,000. A bit more since part of the reason losses were so light is that we also hit the backup meter for $18,000 very quickly.The $54,000 was only a cash on hand amount for worse case ( 1 in a 1000) scenarios.Obviously the worst you can lose on a progressive is more than the most you can win, but the wins are far more common playing at such large numbers.~FKP.S. The Hilton was a 3% meter.

[dbldbl scotty]

...

[dbldbl scotty]

Scotty,
Curious about the pay tables on your TDB & DDB progressives.



8/6 on quarters

9/6 on dollars

[Tony Felder]

Frank,
 
I am curious about the "team concept", how does it work and is there anywhere I can go to read or get more information on it. Are there teams operating in different areas of the country or just LV.

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank,
 
I am curious about the "team concept", how does it work and is there anywhere I can go to read or get more information on it. Are there teams operating in different areas of the country or just LV.There were six major teams that operated in LV between the late 70's and early 2000's. To my knowledge my book is the only one to detail what went on in those days. The industry is largely dead, but not completely. I wrote the book in 2001 when things were still very much alive. Now my book is more entertaining history than anything else, though all the math, humour, and history is still sound.Team Play was perfectly legal and all we did was play high progressives. It was discouraged in a very few casinos, but overall we caught very little heat. Nothing compared to what modern AP's experience.I was part of the largest LV team for several years and even managed it for one year. There were also major teams in Reno and Atlantic City A single investor or coalition of investors paid players and bankrolled them as employees. The players made only hourly wage + bonus. The investor(s) took all the risk and kept all the profits, of which there was plenty in those days.Now the business model is no longer employer/employee it's coalitions of equal partners that share the risk and BR requirements.Changes in the IRS tax code killed the profitability of having paid players in the late 90's.That's the best I can answer your question in less than 285,000 words.~FK

[brmcc74]

Somehow this same math does not apply to gamblers in NV.  They begin with a $54,000 bankroll, spend $18,000 , win $9,000, and the next gaming session they still have $54,000 in their bankroll.  I think this is called “Vegas Math”, but don’t quote me on this 
THIS IS MY FAVORITE POST OF THE YEAR THX      jim18

[Frank Kneeland]

Somehow this same math does not apply to gamblers in NV.  They begin with a $54,000 bankroll, spend $18,000 , win $9,000, and the next gaming session they still have $54,000 in their bankroll.  I think this is called “Vegas Math”, but don’t quote me on this 
THIS IS MY FAVORITE POST OF THE YEAR THX      jim18There seems to be some major disconnect between what people are saying, what you are hearing, or what you are saying and what I am hearing.No one said that if you started with $54,000 and lost $9,000 (after jackpot) that you'd still have $54,000. $54,000 was a suggested cash on hand amount for worse case scenario runners.If we apply standard binomial theorem your expected results over time would look something like this on a 1% 8/5 JoB with a play number of $12,000 and a cost of $9,000. Of all the many plays you make:1. 62 % would be hit within a single cycle and result in $12,000 to $4,000 profit.2. 89% would be hit within 2 cycles and net $12,000 to -$2,400 profit/loss3. 96% would be hit within 3 cycles and net $12,000 to -$10,200 profit/loss4. 99% would be hit within 4 cycles and net $12,000 to -$17,600 profit /lossAnd so on...In each case $12,000 is the most you can win, since this would be walking up and hitting the RF on your first hand. I've discounted winning by hitting things like 4K and SF and here we are just assuming the the Royal was your only major JP, which on 8/5 JoB it was.The loss numbers are modified to reflect the rising 1% meter which offsets the damage of long runners.Lastly, the percentages are not cumulative as each level includes the one before it.If this still doesn't make sense to you then my guess is their is a language problem and you don't understand what I'm saying.62% of the time you play a progressive like this $9,000 would be an adequate bankroll and you'd win hitting the RF, which by the time you hit it would be between $12,000 and $13,600.The $54,000 was for the .01% of the time things went badly and the best laid plans of mice and men Gang aft agley (without the word "often"). Runners were not common...

[dbldbl scotty]

Frank, you lost me at "there seems to be". Haha j/k

Happy new year all!!!

Scotty

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank, you lost me at "there seems to be". Haha j/k

Happy new year all!!!

Scotty
Well sorry for that J/K (Yes I know you're kidding). These numbers were derived using binomial theorem. If one doesn't understand binomial theorem then they will make no sense. I can do little for that here, on a forum, other than to suggest that people restudy their first year statistics, which is really indispensable information for ANY gambler.Happy NY...off to parties...

[jim18]

Brmcc74When a poster writes a many paragraph posting, they are bound to say something that some players will agree with, while other players will not agree with.  I tried to cover several points in my posting, without going too far off topic.  If one of my phrases was funny to you, and gave you a good laugh, then I am happy for that.Some months back, one of the regular posters and I discussed hitting a jackpot of a RF.  From what I remember, the chances of doing this were less than 40%.  So, from memory I am going to say that while Frank and his team may be doing what they claim to be doing, when I try to apply Frank’s example to my own life, or try to make an explanation based on someone else’s math, I come up with the idea that most players, like you and I will leave the casino a loser at least two times out of three, and maybe worse.If my theory is true, then if is reasonable to start with a large bankroll, and session after session it will grow - yes grow smaller.   Sure, there will be wins, when they hit a jackpot.   And with the passage of time that bankroll will become small.  I never said that Frank did not make money at what he is doing.According the Shadowman I am banned from doing math again.  This is the kind of absurdity that I encounter over the internet.  If this were said in a conversation, perhaps, it would be less offensive to me.  Some folks lack the smoothness to be diplomatic.  But, beyond their lack of diplomacy, they have an abundance of arrogance towards others, who choose to think differently than they do.I will leave it to a math expert to tell us how a person plays a 8/5 game.  By this I mean, that if you spending $5 per hand, what is your expected loss per hour, even if you are playing at 100 % accuracy.  Since Frank is playing 2,000 hands per hour, I would imagine the losses to be mounting up quickly.Now, lets move away from Frank and his team of expert players.  After all, his situation is not representative of what you and I face in a casino. Again, I call on a math expert to prove my point.  If I am playing a 99 % pay back machine, and playing it 99 % accurately.  And I am playing 500 hands per hour, at the dollar denomination, how much is a reasonable loss expectation per 10 hour session.Frank has written a response to your post.  And the way he explains things sounds reasonable, with just one fault.You and I are not playing progressive jackpots of $12,000 or more.  The largest jackpot I have even seen in my gambling district was about $6,600 dollars.  Perhaps Frank will plug the number $6,600 into his formula and show us how this produces a different result.  Additionally, about 95% of the time you and I are playing a non progressive machine.  Again, the results would be so different from Frank’s situation.