A year of Quads - 2011

[spxChrome]

Just like the prior year here are the all quads I hit this year.  To set this up I play 65% 9/6 DDB, 25% 9/7 TDB, 10% other games.  But despite the game I record any quad such as those dreadful quad Aces while playing Deuces, I still log it as a natural Quad.  I play 99% single line.  I toss any low card full house such as 222KK I hold the 2's.  I hold any low card from a garbage hand such as 2,5,7,10,4  I will hold the 4 or 2.  I also don't hold kickers such as 222AK I will toss the AK.  After around 1.3m hands here are the results these are all paid games at a casino.  I don't play here or any other free site for fun.
 
A - 118
2 - 89
3 - 91
4 - 74
 
5 - 108
6 - 110
7 - 110
8 - 192
9 - 114
10 - 156
 
J - 114
Q - 123
K - 96
 
1.3m hands should be a pretty good sampling size of "real" play.
 
I averaged 1 quad in 870 hands.
The average per number is about 115.  But in reality you would expect the A, J,Q,K to be much higher since they are payings hands most often held as a pair or as a single high card.  And because of my strategy towards the higher payouts you should expect the 2,3,4 to have an above average hit.  So you can see out of the 7 hands that should exceed the average only 1 did the Queen, the others went in the wrong direction some by quit a bit.  But I had no problems with the hands in between which I call garbage quads.  Especially with the 8 and 10.  This is the 3rd year since I been tracking quads and the results are amazing pretty much scewed in the same direction. Go figure.

[shadowman]

Those numbers are highly suspect. Either you did a poor job of keeping track, played a strange strategy or the machines are not random. Where did you play?
 
This looks more like what you'd expect from a VLT. You should hit quads about every 425 hands using basic strategies on a fair machine.

[Vol]

SPX,
 
On average for about 2/3 DDB and 1/3 TDB, quads contribute about  21% to the return.  Since you only had about 1/2 the predicted quads, your return should be down about 10%.  Assuming  5 coins per hand or 6.5 M for the year, this would result in a loss of 630K coins.   If missed quads were paying hands, this would reduce the loss, but not by much.  At what point did you realize that there was a problem?
 
May 2012 be a kinder year for you
 
Vol

[damule]

Those numbers are highly suspect. Either you did a poor job of keeping track, played a strange strategy or the machines are not random. Where did you play?
 
This looks more like what you'd expect from a VLT. You should hit quads about every 425 hands using basic strategies on a fair machine.

 
We already know from past posts that spxchrome plays a strange strategy. Spx has stated in the past that when playing bonus games, there are times when he prefers to hold a low pair (2s,3s,4s) over two pair. We can only assume that other poor strategy is being used as well: maybe holding 4 to an open-ended straight over a pair or 4 to a straight flush over a high pair?

[shadowman]

[QUOTE=shadowman]Those numbers are highly suspect. Either you did a poor job of keeping track, played a strange strategy or the machines are not random. Where did you play?
 
This looks more like what you'd expect from a VLT. You should hit quads about every 425 hands using basic strategies on a fair machine.

 
We already know from past posts that spxchrome plays a strange strategy. Spx has stated in the past that when playing bonus games, there are times when he prefers to hold a low pair (2s,3s,4s) over two pair. We can only assume that other poor strategy is being used as well: maybe holding 4 to an open-ended straight over a pair or 4 to a straight flush over a high pair?[/QUOTE]


 
True, but most of what I've seen from the strategy methods should increase the number of low quads. And, it's not just one of them, it's all 2-4 that are out of whack. Add that in with the extremely low number of quads and I'm betting on a VLT. That's why I asked where these results were achieved.

[New2vp]

I recall spx asking to have someone calculate the probability of multiple fairly long "quadless" streaks in the last couple years (I don't recall the exact number, but I might have answered at least one of those questions).  If the underlying probability for a single quad were actually about 1/2 of what is normal, VLT play might have explained those results a bit better as well.

[New2vp]

And, damule, the "good news" about using a different strategy is that, from what I understand, the strategy employed while playing VLTs would not have a negative effect on the distribution of outcomes.  The "bad news"?  Well, ...

[spxChrome]

I play 1 casino about 50% of the time. The rest are spread out all over from Paris las Vegas, roadhouse tunica, harrahs new Orleans, harrahs grand Biloxi, hard rock Florida and Biloxi and silver star Indian reservation. I've been pretty much everywhere except Atlantic city. Even a few overseas.

Damule that strategy is very rare I may only do that on a gut or if I am desperate (tossing two pair) I pretty much play normal 99% of the time.

I have changed a tad in 9/7 tdb cause it says to hold a four card flush over a pair. But I mix that 50/50. And will always hold a a234 pair over a 4 card straight or flush even open ended.

I keep records very accurate in my phone. I have a method that makes it easy. I log each visit seperate. This is my 3rd year of doing this. I will dig up the other three years but they pretty much have the same results. I think last year the quad 9's were off the chart.

And yes @new u did that math for me. It's not uncommon for me to spend 2k before getting 1 quad. I once went 5.7k without a quad. And have had a streak of being dealt trip aces 108 times before drawing the 4th.

Streaks in this run was once I for 10's 4 times in a row and 8's 3 times in a row twice.

Only other info I can add is I jump around alot. Such as hit a quad and move to another machine. I may come back to it but hardly ever if I get a handpay on it,

[shadowman]

Do you have a breakdown of quads by casino? That might help narrow down the situation.

[rascal]

Still doesn't make sense....