Four to a royal question

[Frank Kneeland]

[QUOTE=Tedlark]

6 of clubs Eduardo?
 I don't know, my wife took the cards and was playing Solitaire.  But nobody has guessed it yet so I think I am with backsider. Shadowman couldn't solve his way into predicting the right card with math problems and New2Vp had his chance to write a 7 page thesis about the probability but also failed to come up with an answer in time that was the right card (my apologies if you are still writing it). Shows what smarts will get you! Royals might never happen, as we see from another actual experiment. Of course, we weren't really going for a royal here, just trying to predict a card. Maybe I should have picked a suit (diamonds) and taken the ten and all the diamond face cards out and just shuffled and drawn for the ace every time. Nah, crazy talk. I need a nap. Thanks for everyone who participated and helped us resolve this once and for all with actual data instead of theories.[/QUOTE]Now hang on a minute. We can't quit now with so few trials. Here's how we'll speed it up.I'm going to pick the 3 of hearts and I'm going to keep picking the 3 of hearts. Start shuffling and dealing and let me know how many times you have to do the experiment before I'm right?~FK

[faygo]

This is starting to look like an ESP experiment. Anybody remember The Amazing Kreskin?
 
Im thinking more like the Great Karmak. And the question is?

[Eduardo]

Now hang on a minute. We can't quit now with so few trials. Here's how we'll speed it up.I'm going to pick the 3 of hearts and I'm going to keep picking the 3 of hearts. Start shuffling and dealing and let me know how many times you have to do the experiment before I'm right?~FK
 9,734. I finally found it under the chair.

[Frank Kneeland]

[QUOTE=Frank Kneeland]
Now hang on a minute. We can't quit now with so few trials. Here's how we'll speed it up.I'm going to pick the 3 of hearts and I'm going to keep picking the 3 of hearts. Start shuffling and dealing and let me know how many times you have to do the experiment before I'm right?~FK
 9,734. I finally found it under the chair.[/QUOTE]You don't seem to be taking this seriously. See how many draws it takes from a freshly sorted deck (with 4 cards removed that aren't the 3 of hearts) to draw the 3 of hearts?This is easy. You started it...least you could do is finish it.I predict a 63.6% chance you'll get it in under 47 draws, and an 86.7% chance you'll do it in under 94 draws. I also predict a 93.2% chance that less than 7.2% of the people reading this post know how I derived those numbers or what they mean...and a 57.32% chance that people will think this last paragraph was serious.P.S. 1-(p-1/p)^N

[TsuDoNihm]

I kept track of my 4-> royal since I joined here and thought it might be of interest in this thread. This was almost entirely done in the contests, starting about the middle of August.

The results are below, followed by a couple of comments:

Code: Select all

# hands          Result (# royals/# hands)
917                  0/1
2,336                0/3
5,361                0/3
8,851                0/3
14,295               0/3
16,757               0/3
17,041               0/3
18,035               0/3
19,222               3/100
20,706               0/3
Dream Card           0/21
29,059               0/1
29,970               0/9
34,610               0/3
35,123               0/3
37,777               2/100
48,792               0/3
52,442               0/3
56,464               0/3
56,721               0/3
Dream Card           0/30
69,114               0/3
71,046               0/3
71,190               0/3
72,705               0(?)/50

The last entry reads "(?)" because I didn't realize it was the last hand of a contest game and I was writing down the entry in my notebook as it switched to the end of game screen so I wasn't able to see the results of that hand. However, from what I remember of the score before that hand and after I finished I'm pretty sure I didn't get a royal. That was also the last hand I played, (yesterday), and my point total stands at 72,705.

Since "Dream Card" tends to give more of them, (and I was too lazy to drag out pen and paper with each one), I just bunched them together.

In one or three play games I believe I've hit 2 royals, (with less than a dealt 4 to the royal), but I seem to have misplaced the note with the second one, which I think happened within the past month. The first one was in mid November at 45,698 hands. I know I got at least a few others in 100 play, but they happen frequently enough that it was more trouble than it was worth to keep track of. I may have also gotten 1 or more in spin poker, but I don't really like that game and don't keep a close eye on it as I just try to play it, (and end the misery), as soon as possible.

I don't know if this makes any difference in the current discussion, but since I doubt many people have kept a record like this I thought it would be appropriate to post it. And unlike many other situations where the case can be made that the results may be due in some part to player decisions, I'm pretty sure that doesn't hold true here

[New2vp]

edog, NOW who's just getting it shoved back in their face and responds with whining? You couldnt read and you were called on it. Poor baby.......... Youd have been much better off cutting your losses like New2vp did.Seriously!?! You really have the audacity to worry about someone else whining...and cutting their losses?Unusually warm weather here.  Took rare opportunity to golf in January and was pleased with the result.  Any golf tales to relate?  I might be more interested.Now I know that you do read my posts.  I guess you just couldn't respond to the other multiple direct hits to your logic contained therein.I have had to spend a little time consoling my girlfriend, who, by the way is not your biggest fan right now.  I told her you were just a little reckless (I know, that is an understatement) and that with your very low accuracy rating in making your assertions, she should really take your comment as a compliment.   

[New2vp]

Back never stated that the girls were ugly.

Mammaj, where is your sensitivity?  I'm sure that at least some of the women on Tedlark's list did in fact have "good looking girlfriends." But mamma, I am like you in applauding bs.  I am in awe of how he can needlessly insult so many in one sentence with so little applicability to the subject at hand. "Belligerent responses from the ivy league crowd that couldnt get good looking girlfriends."I'm really going to have to file that away for the numerous times that this will come up in future conversations.  What wit!

[New2vp]

I predict a 63.6% chance you'll get it in under 47 draws, and an 86.7% chance you'll do it in under 94 draws. I also predict a 93.2% chance that less than 7.2% of the people reading this post know how I derived those numbers or what they mean...and a 57.32% chance that people will think this last paragraph was serious.P.S. 1-(p-1/p)^NUnfortunately, a large portion of the population that can actually do the calculations would be the same group that has trouble recognizing sarcasm; so many of these comments won't often get their deserved applause (), but will instead be greeted with Simon and Garfunkel's Sound of Silence.

[edog743]

New, I like the way you cut your losses. I hope your less than pretty girlfriend is feeling better.

[New2vp]

I kept track of my 4-> royal since I joined here and thought it might be of interest in this thread. This was almost entirely done in the contests, starting about the middle of August.The last entry reads "(?)" because I didn't realize it was the last hand of a contest game and I was writing down the entry in my notebook as it switched to the end of game screen so I wasn't able to see the results of that hand. However, from what I remember of the score before that hand and after I finished I'm pretty sure I didn't get a royal. That was also the last hand I played, (yesterday), and my point total stands at 72,705.

Since "Dream Card" tends to give more of them, (and I was too lazy to drag out pen and paper with each one), I just bunched them together.

In one or three play games I believe I've hit 2 royals, (with less than a dealt 4 to the royal), but I seem to have misplaced the note with the second one, which I think happened within the past month. The first one was in mid November at 45,698 hands. I know I got at least a few others in 100 play, but they happen frequently enough that it was more trouble than it was worth to keep track of. I may have also gotten 1 or more in spin poker, but I don't really like that game and don't keep a close eye on it as I just try to play it, (and end the misery), as soon as possible.

I don't know if this makes any difference in the current discussion, but since I doubt many people have kept a record like this I thought it would be appropriate to post it. And unlike many other situations where the case can be made that the results may be due in some part to player decisions, I'm pretty sure that doesn't hold true here
Clever handle!  Is this anything like Stanford Wong's sobriquet?