A year of Quads - 2011

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank, another possibility is that the percentage of other smaller-paying hands is large enough to offset some (but probably not all) of the losses from the paucity of quads.  I don't have experience with VLTs, but I've read that they simply pay a certain percentage of each type of hand.  And there is no way of telling those percentages from looking at the pay schedule.Certainly we all hope that spx has not experienced the magnitude of losses that you have referred to.  He is a frequent poster and seems to be a pretty nice guy.  And I seem to recall that he plays at higher denominations than quarters.
So you're saying that on a VLT it might be possible to run bad on quads (even on DblDbl BoPo) and not have your a$% being handed to you on a platter?Hmm...I know normal DblDbl BoPo and if you ran that bad on quads...well let's just say it would be bad. Epic bad! Alert the media Bad. You would not be chatting about it on a forum and going back to play again...for three years in a row.If as you say VLT's don't follow any of the rules of random VP then I guess I have no comment. So far SPX has not expressily stated that his play was on VLT machines.I would really like to know if this is the case.

[brmcc74]

New2= Ok thx. I am understanding this alittle more. It is interesting.

[Frank Kneeland]

This thread seems to be dying without any of the big questions having been answered to satisfaction. Considering how important knowing about non-random machines could be, I'd really like to hear more on the subject.We simply can't make any solid judgments with the information that's been presented, one way or the other.All we currently know is that we need to know more.

[spxChrome]

Sorry, I havn't responded but I was away at the casino this weekend. 
 
I play 90% at $1 demoniation, sometimes I play $2 rarely I play .50 and on occasion $5.
 
I usually play on average 3 times a week, unless I am out of town at the casino then I play everyday I am there.  Last year I had visited a casino 120 seperate times.  So a 3 day trip was logged as 1 visit if you will.  I don't think there is anyone that plays faster than I do.  I probally play 1,200 hands an hour never really counted or timed myself.  But it also depends on the machine.  Some are obviously faster especially the new machines.  I always play the fastest mode two hands and on average I play about 6-8 hours per visit.  But its nothing for me to get to the casino around 10am and not leave until 4am.  I have done that many of times.  I normally can make Harrahs Diamond status from only 2 or at the most 3 visits.  From my play I know I get about 75 hands out of every 100 coins on average. I don't go to eat at the buffet, I don't go to chit-chat with strangers.  I am there for one thing, to play video poker.  I'm not going to get into how much money I have won/lost but lets just say its takes more than 1 shoebox to store my w2-G's for the year.  I think the volatility and being able to sustain this type of play is based on the game I play.  Like I said I play mostly TDB so a dry session can recouped with 1 awak.  While it goes against the math, it is what it is.  I only post these things so people can see what actually happens compared to what is suppose to happen.
 
I have to say I am really surprised at all the people here nobody else keeps any kinds of records of their play.  Or maybe most people on here on go every month or so or a couple of times a year.  For those who play as much as I do, try it for 6 months.  Log your quads and lets see, I'd be surprised if it is just me.
 
 @shadowman, i will post by casino when i get a chance to transfer it all over.  I have the quads logged on a single journal if you will.  And the rest is logged at the calendar level.  So it will take some work to connect the dots back and forth for so many visits.  But I am curious so I am going to do it.
 
 

[Frank Kneeland]

Ok, so I had calculated your expected loss at $50,000 a year with the quad frequencies you had posted, based on quarter play. At the dollar level that would equate to $200,000 a year. In order to validate your ridiculously bad run on quads you would need to post your results as well. They should be the far side of "alert the media disastrous".From your previous post I am to understand you are unwilling to share your results.And you have still not said to what extent you played on Nevada regulated machines.Is there some reason you are being evasive?The numbers you posted are proof positive that the machines you played on are non-random, if your method of data accumulation is accurate.If you are correct you have a valid lawsuit and can press chagres with gaming control.I can think of no reason why you wouldn't do this, unless you have made an error somewhere, and you know it.So which is it?1. Are you down $600,000 in the last three years?2. Did you miscalculate your hand volume?3. Or have you been playing VLT machines which don't follow normal expectancy???Enquiring minds want to know???...???The numbers you posted are IMPOSSIBLE on random machines...sorry, highly improbable, to the order of hitting the lottery 17 days in a row. I'm good with "impossible".We need to get to the bottom of this. Your last post not only didn't answer any of the questions being asked it only raised more.

[Frank Kneeland]

@SPX Here's a shorter easier to respond to post...Why are you not taking your results to gaming control and pressing changes against the casinos you played at???
Your results are proof positive of gaffed machines and actionable by Nevada Law.

[onemoretry]

 
I have to say I am really surprised at all the people here nobody else keeps any kinds of records of their play.  Or maybe most people on here on go every month or so or a couple of times a year.  For those who play as much as I do, try it for 6 months.  Log your quads and lets see, I'd be surprised if it is just me.
 

Some time ago, when I felt i wasn't getting my "fair share " of the better hands, I started recording trips dealt, quads made from that, other quads, two pairs dealt, full houses from that, other full houses, four to a flush dealt, flushes made from that, and other flushes.
 
After doing this for several three to four hour sessions, I concluded two things:
 
1.  The results, while varying widely from session to session, overall corresponded reasonably well to the predicted.
 
2.  Keeping such detailed statistics was laborious, and detracted from my enjoyment.
 
As an adjunct to 2. above, I am amazed at your ability to keep such detailed quad records and maintain a speed of 1200 hands per hour.
 
 

[spxChrome]

"And you have still not said to what extent you played on Nevada regulated machines."
I only had 1 - 6 day trip to Nevada this year where I played at pretty much every casino on the strip and downtown.  But most of my time was at Harrahs, Paris and New York New York, Planet Hollywood.

"Is there some reason you are being evasive?"
I am only evasive with my income, I just don't want to share how much I earn or how much I win/loose gambling. 

"If you are correct you have a valid lawsuit and can press chagres with gaming control."
I never really thought I had a suit since its all random?  I have not had a dealt royal in 3.5 million hands although I should have had 5 or so in that time frame does that warrant a law suit?  Were is the line drawn? How do I prove it?  I wouldn't even know were to begin.

"1. Are you down $600,000 in the last three years?"
no not even close to that, although the last 2 years have been the worse since I started playing Video Poker in 1994.

2. Did you miscalculate your hand volume?
Its possible but I doubt by much.

3. Or have you been playing VLT machines which don't follow normal expectancy???
Sadly that I do not know.  Like I said I play all over the country and even out of the country.  A majority of my play is Tunica, Vicksburg and the MS Gulf coast and a few Indian reservations.

"We need to get to the bottom of this. Your last post not only didn't answer any of the questions being asked it only raised more."

===============
 
I think your miscalulation is in the games that  play.  Like I said I play high volitale games such as TDB, Super Aces and even Triple Double Deuces.  So I can kill a long dry session with just 1 or 2 good hands.  I know its easy to call me a liar but really I have nothing to gain.  I'm just posting the numbers as proof positive instead of hypothetical.  If it makes anyone feel better I can post the raw screen shots of my record keeping but that probally won't make any difference.  But for fun here is my last session I recorded.
 
====================================================
Casino Silver Star, Indian Reservation
Session 9 hours 2pm to 11pm
Game 9/6 DDB, Double Deuces
Quads hit - 9
J(dealt),k,awak,5(dealt),8(playing deuces),k,a,a,4
Hands Played = 8,744 (slow machine IGT 1996 Bar Top calculated from players card points)

Quad Ratio 1 in 971
 
Session Win/Loss
+2,100
 

[Frank Kneeland]

Definitely not calling you a liar. Hope I didn't give that impression.From what you're saying most of your play is indeed in unregulated areas or areas not under the jurisdiction of Nevada Gaming Control. That's unfortunate. If it was I could go over the steps you need to take to file charges. Where you play you have little to no recourse.For me this has been a cautionary tale of why I should only play in Nevada. It is well known that outside of regulated areas machines are not random and fair. It's nice to see proof of this, but of course it's not knew or surprising information. Had this happened in Nevada we'd be looking at a state scandal. The results you listed are for all intents and purposes impossible on random and fair machines. I have done similar studies many years ago in Nevada and found 4k's to occur between every 400-450 hands over a large sample. I do not remember how large, it was many years ago. Basically I found nothing amiss. I have not played out of the state to any large degree.Good luck, thank you for clarifying everything.If anyone else has done a similar study here in NV, please share.~FK

[spxChrome]

 
I am amazed at your ability to keep such detailed quad records and maintain a speed of 1200 hands per hour.
 
Its nothing sopisticated or time consuming.  I have an iphone (i am a software developer and have been thinking on even writing a quad log app for the iphone and android. just been to lazy) but I keep the notepad app open and just log a quad after I hit.  Such as k,j,sa,5,2,4,s4,rfh,sf,d4,ad.  I don't track draws, FH, trips just quads and special hands. 
 
s4 = we call them special fours such as 4444a
sa  = same thing we call awak "special aces".
rfh = royal flush hearts
sf = straight flush
d4 = dealt fours
ad = aces playing deuces
 
Then on the calander app I log time played, # of hands and win/loss on the day of the session.
 
I challenge anyone else who plays on a regular basis to keep this same log with me, maybe if webman doesn't care we could start a thread and just update your results after each session.  Just a count of quads and as a collective group it would be interesting to see how it plays out after 6months or a year. 
 
Anyway I'll ask whatever else you want, but ,I will be on a 3 day trip to Harrahs Grand Casino this weekend so I may not get back to posting for a few days.