Beginners Strategy

[shadowman]

The thing to remember, though, is that EVERY GAME in a casino has a player disadvantage, some just more than others. If the player had the advantage, then the game would be removed from the casino - guaranteed. You may read about "100% + paybacks", but that is with perfect play all the time, and in the very long term, probably longer than you would be able to play.
Good luck in your quest - I wish you much success.


 
Sorry billyjoe, but "EVERY GAME" does NOT have a "player disadvantage". You can believe whatever you want but you can't change the math. The math works on each and every hand and does not require "the very long term".
 
Now clearly a person is statistically more likely to be close to the expected return if they have played more hands. However, if they don't play a lot of hands they are almost as likely to be ahead of the expected return than behind it. There's just no way the "short term" loser argument is valid. If there were then you couldn't win in the "short term" playing any kind of game.

[Frank Kneeland]

By now our new member Jeff has got to be confused getting all this conflicting information.That is why in the beginning of this thread I suggested learning the math and figuring it out on your own. It's the only way to be sure. You'll not be able to discern the fact from fiction from posts without a mathematical filter to guide you.Don't take the scenic route on this, you'll not like the destination or the journey.~FK

[BillyJoe]

 
Sorry billyjoe, but "EVERY GAME" does NOT have a "player disadvantage". You can believe whatever you want but you can't change the math. The math works on each and every hand and does not require "the very long term".
 
Now clearly a person is statistically more likely to be close to the expected return if they have played more hands. However, if they don't play a lot of hands they are almost as likely to be ahead of the expected return than behind it. There's just no way the "short term" loser argument is valid. If there were then you couldn't win in the "short term" playing any kind of game.[/QUOTE]
Sorry, Frank. I just ain't buying it. The expected return on any paytable is calculated based on 'perfect' play strategy AND thousands of hands played. If it were not, and you only needed a few hands of play to be profitable on every session, YOU would be playing right now, and not reading this.

[shadowman]

  
Sorry, Frank. I just ain't buying it. The expected return on any paytable is calculated based on 'perfect' play strategy AND thousands of hands played. If it were not, and you only needed a few hands of play to be profitable on every session, YOU would be playing right now, and not reading this.


 
It wasn't Frank that made the quote, it was me. The expected return (ER) is based on perfect play, but that does not mean one can't get very, very close. I just checked one of my practice play sessions and found a situation where I got around 97% of the hands correct and achieved 99.96% of the theoretical return.
 
So, worrying about "perfect play" is a red herring.
 
As for the number of hands, I already explained that. You are as likely to be ahead as behind the ER with a small number of hands. So, the number of hands played does not have any relationship to the goodness or badness of playing higher paying machines.
 
Worrying about the number of hands is another red herring.
 
Look, I see a lot of reasons why a person might decide to play lower return games, you've mentioned them before. You don't need to make up ones that don't exist.
 
PS. I'd love to be playing right now but I have other responsibilities.

[Frank Kneeland]

I see shadow pointed out that he had made that comment, not me.I really don't know where you got the idea that anyone said anything about every session being profitable. You seem to be mixing expectancy and results.Having a positive expectation on a game of chance does not mean you expect to win every session. If you thought that's what we said, or that's what it means, you do not understand the concept of expectancy at all. It is confusing, so don't feel too bad.Here's an example:In roulette the expectancy is that each number will come up 1 in 38 spins. (36 numbers + 0&00)Probability math further predicts that if you spin the wheel and toss in the ball the chances of each number coming up exactly 1 in 38 spins is so close to non-existent it might as well be 0.Imagine a coin that should come up heads half the time. Now flip it 3 times and see if that's what happens. I'm confident it won't. In probability math the expected outcome is often the least likely.But actual results tend to fall above and below expectation and the less you play the more this is true.Anyway...bottom line: You cannot mix how you do and actual results with expectancy. Expectancy is used in advance of playing, before you know how you will do, or how you have done. After the fact results don't change the expectation, which was calculated before you played. You are mixing, "How I should do" with "How I did". One describes the future, the other describes the past. They are unrelated.~FK

[Lucky Larry]

JB,
Again welcome to the forum. Another simple training program where we learned to play VP with adjustable pay tables to match casino is Freeslots.com.

http://www.freeslots.com/poker.htm

[BillyJoe]

I really don't know where you got the idea that anyone said anything about every session being profitable. You seem to be mixing expectancy and results.

Having a positive expectation on a game of chance does not mean you expect to win every session. If you thought that's what we said, or that's what it means, you do not understand the concept of expectancy at all. It is confusing, so don't feel too bad.


Well, Frank, I don't think that I am mixing anything. I believe in the "Law of Independent Trials" when it comes to VP, in that what happened before does not affect the future. All I expect is that the game will pay me according to the pay table every time on every hand. Sorry if I "don't feel too bad" about that.  
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given paytable. Playing a game with a better pay table may help increase your overall return, but will not guarantee it.     

[Frank Kneeland]

[QUOTE=Frank Kneeland] I really don't know where you got the idea that anyone said anything about every session being profitable. You seem to be mixing expectancy and results.Having a positive expectation on a game of chance does not mean you expect to win every session. If you thought that's what we said, or that's what it means, you do not understand the concept of expectancy at all. It is confusing, so don't feel too bad.
Well, Frank, I don't think that I am mixing anything. I believe in the "Law of Independent Trials" when it comes to VP, in that what happened before does not affect the future. All I expect is that the game will pay me according to the pay table every time on every hand. Sorry if I "don't feel too bad" about that.  
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given paytable. Playing a game with a better pay table may help increase your overall return, but will not guarantee it.     [/QUOTE]Yes that's about right...I'm shocked, not at our differences, but at our similarities.I would not put it exactly that way, and I would act upon the information differently.Here's my divergences:1. You said, "each paytable has an expected return that is calculated by using a perfect strategy over a large number of hands". Stickily speaking this is close, but no cigar.Expected Return is calculated based on a perfect strategy using combinational math which takes into account every paying combination, multiplied by its frequency, and then divided by the total number of combinations. It is based on NO PLAY at all and is merely an expected average.Since we never know what will happen and there are no guarantees, I like to always know I picked the game with the best expectation. If things go badly, then at least I know I made a logical and unemotional decision.2. Many recreational players do indeed play enough hands to have a 95% chance or better to be within 1% + or - of rated return. It only takes a million or so, and many reach this during the course of their lives.3. But that's not the issue. The real question is how many hands does a recreational player have to play to know they picked the best game with the best odds, and that they made the best decision they could with the information available to them ??? The answer to this question is not millions...it is 1.You seem hung up on the long-term issue, but all the advice on what game to play works for no hands, 1 hand, a million hands, or an infinite number of hands.Imagine you are at a fork in the road and that both paths lead to the same destination. The left path says, "Danger Rock Slides". The right path lists a rest stop, food, and gas station. Which one do you take? No one is saying the left path is certain death, or that it won't get you where you want to go. No one is saying you couldn't have a wreck on the right path, or get food poising at the rest stop. But that's all in the possible future. Right now you are at the cross-roads, do you go left, or would you rather be "right".~FK~When you have reached the end of the road, then you turn left, or right to fire or to water. If you make those decisions before you have even set foot on the road, it will take you nowhere...except to a bad end. ~Galen, Babylon Five

[onemoretry]

 
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given paytable.     

As others have pointed out, the expected return applies to each and every hand, and you do not have to play limitless numbers of hands to reach, or even exceed, it.
 
A few years ago, my wife and I were staying at the Barbary Coast. (alas, it is now Bill's gamblin hall).  A friend of my wife, who had a free airline ticket due to being bumped off a previous flight, decided to use her freebie and join us for a few days in Las Vegas (a place she had always wanted to visit).
 
Even though she is not a regular video poker player, she jumped in "with both feet", and played video poker with us.  She did very well, playing triple line 25c nsu deuces.  She had several sets of deuces, and a royal flush.  She went home up a substantial amount.  In her case she didn't have to play very many hands at all to greatly exceed the ER of the paytable.

[Frank Kneeland]

As others have pointed out, the expected return applies to each and every hand, and you do not have to play limitless numbers of hands to reach, or even exceed, it.
 
A few years ago, my wife and I were staying at the Barbary Coast. (alas, it is now Bill's gamblin hall).  A friend of my wife, who had a free airline ticket due to being bumped off a previous flight, decided to use her freebie and join us for a few days in Las Vegas (a place she had always wanted to visit).
 
Even though she is not a regular video poker player, she jumped in "with both feet", and played video poker with us.  She did very well, playing triple line 25c nsu deuces.  She had several sets of deuces, and a royal flush.  She went home up a substantial amount.  In her case she didn't have to play very many hands at all to greatly exceed the ER of the paytable.Yes indeed, and to use the vernacular, one can get lucky on good pay-tables, just as easily as they can on poor pay-tables. And if their luck comes on a game with good return, they end up getting luckier.Certainly if one hits a Royal in 1 hour of play they are going to be ahead no matter what game they played, but that won't alter the +65 coins they would receive from playing a game where the Full House Returned 1 more. Their results on dollars might look like this:1 hour of play on 6/9 JoB with a Royal = +$3,8801 hour of play on 6/8 JoB with a Royal = +$3,815Both are lucky wins. One is luckier and winner-ier.The problem would seem to be convincing someone that's up +$3,815 that they made a mistake and should have played the better machine, because they can't see the forest for the trees...or in this case Tree/Royal... The + $4,000 masks and obscures the -$65.Of course the scary thing is it only takes 60 hours for the seemingly insignificant 5$ difference on the FH to completely erase the entire Royal. Since people don't hold week long records in their head well, what's happening today obliterates the unwelcome reality.