Gold Exclusive
My Favorites
@BillyjoeNo, to increase our chances of getting the Royal is NOT why we lock up banks with a large team. In fact there is nothing anyone can do to increase their chances of getting a royal beyond what correct strategy allows.Time is the only variable. I'll explain later. I'm sorry but I don't have the time now to respond fully. Ironically, I've been called to a progressive team play. Back when it hits or my relief gets there.P.S. The comments in my previous posts were not about or directed at you specifically.
Objective in playing VP
-
Frank Kneeland
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 6:59 pm
-
shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
OK . Can you tell me, then, why do you have a "team" of players playing a progressive bank of VP machines, trying to get the RF progressive jackpot? Isn't the reason being to increase the probability of one of them hitting an RF through more hands being played? That is my point - the odds on hitting an RF by any one member of your team does not change, but the probability of the team hitting an RF increases because more hands are being played.
It does not increase the odds. The odds are the same on every hand and don't change. A "team" simply reduces the variance for the players.
Translate that to the individual VP player, and the probability of reaching the expected return on a given machine's pay table is DIRECTLY related to how many hands they play, keeping in mind that exceeding the paytable's expected return with a (GASP!) LUCKY HIT on a premium hand in the short run, is ALSO a miss.
No, the number hands has nothing to do with the probability of reaching the expected return. Sorry.
So from an individual's perspective, reaching EXACTLY the expected return as dictated by the pay table is virtually impossible, while from the casino's perspective, it is far more likely the machine will perform MORE profitably for the casino than the paytable's expected return, through RFhits with less than max bets and non-perfect playing strategies from all the players.
Still wrong. The probabilities apply to each and every hand. The only thing a large number of hands does is bring a player statistically closer to the ER. They can be either above it or below it with fewer hands so the machine is clearly not more profitable from the casinos point of view.
For the casual player, putting themselves on a strong pay table game may help increase their personal return, and having the knowledge to play in a fashion that increases their returns is a big component. But knowledge of how to play will not guarantee a winning session, or even a session that will approach the machine's expected return, since they are not playing enough hands. A long odds hit of a premium hand, (dare I say, a LUCKY hit) in the short run, makes a much bigger difference in their return on any given session.
And that is true no matter what the return is of the game they play. So, why not play a better return game and get the most out of it as possible. If you hit big maybe you win $2000 vs. $1800. More is better.
-
BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3198
- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
I surrender.You guys are all right, and I am all wrong. How could I be so stupid to think that "possibility" (aka odds) and "probability" mean something different.
-
BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3198
- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
[QUOTE=billy joe]
OK . Can you tell me, then, why do you have a "team" of players playing a progressive bank of VP machines, trying to get the RF progressive jackpot? Isn't the reason being to increase the probability of one of them hitting an RF through more hands being played? That is my point - the odds on hitting an RF by any one member of your team does not change, but the probability of the team hitting an RF increases because more hands are being played.
It does not increase the odds. The odds are the same on every hand and don't change. A "team" simply reduces the variance for the players. (and a decrease in variance is an increase in success probability - isn't that what I said?)
Translate that to the individual VP player, and the probability of reaching the expected return on a given machine's pay table is DIRECTLY related to how many hands they play, keeping in mind that exceeding the paytable's expected return with a (GASP!) LUCKY HIT on a premium hand in the short run, is ALSO a miss.
No, the number hands has nothing to do with the probability of reaching the expected return. Sorry. (then the casinos, although profitable, are horribly misguided)
So from an individual's perspective, reaching EXACTLY the expected return as dictated by the pay table is virtually impossible, while from the casino's perspective, it is far more likely the machine will perform MORE profitably for the casino than the paytable's expected return, through RF hits with less than max bets and non-perfect playing strategies from all the players.
Still wrong. The probabilities apply to each and every hand. The only thing a large number of hands does is bring a player statistically closer to the ER. They can be either above it or below it with fewer hands so the machine is clearly not more profitable from the casinos point of view. (Actually, the "possibilities" are the same with each hand - the "probability" of reaching ER increases with the number of hands played)
For the casual player, putting themselves on a strong pay table game may help increase their personal return, and having the knowledge to play in a fashion that increases their returns is a big component. But knowledge of how to play will not guarantee a winning session, or even a session that will approach the machine's expected return, since they are not playing enough hands. A long odds hit of a premium hand, (dare I say, a LUCKY hit) in the short run, makes a much bigger difference in their return on any given session.
And that is true no matter what the return is of the game they play. So, why not play a better return game and get the most out of it as possible. If you hit big maybe you win $2000 vs. $1800. More is better.(putting yourself in the best position to succeed is best achieved with a stronger pay table. After that, in the short term, it's luck )
[/QUOTE]
OK . Can you tell me, then, why do you have a "team" of players playing a progressive bank of VP machines, trying to get the RF progressive jackpot? Isn't the reason being to increase the probability of one of them hitting an RF through more hands being played? That is my point - the odds on hitting an RF by any one member of your team does not change, but the probability of the team hitting an RF increases because more hands are being played.
It does not increase the odds. The odds are the same on every hand and don't change. A "team" simply reduces the variance for the players. (and a decrease in variance is an increase in success probability - isn't that what I said?)
Translate that to the individual VP player, and the probability of reaching the expected return on a given machine's pay table is DIRECTLY related to how many hands they play, keeping in mind that exceeding the paytable's expected return with a (GASP!) LUCKY HIT on a premium hand in the short run, is ALSO a miss.
No, the number hands has nothing to do with the probability of reaching the expected return. Sorry. (then the casinos, although profitable, are horribly misguided)
So from an individual's perspective, reaching EXACTLY the expected return as dictated by the pay table is virtually impossible, while from the casino's perspective, it is far more likely the machine will perform MORE profitably for the casino than the paytable's expected return, through RF hits with less than max bets and non-perfect playing strategies from all the players.
Still wrong. The probabilities apply to each and every hand. The only thing a large number of hands does is bring a player statistically closer to the ER. They can be either above it or below it with fewer hands so the machine is clearly not more profitable from the casinos point of view. (Actually, the "possibilities" are the same with each hand - the "probability" of reaching ER increases with the number of hands played)
For the casual player, putting themselves on a strong pay table game may help increase their personal return, and having the knowledge to play in a fashion that increases their returns is a big component. But knowledge of how to play will not guarantee a winning session, or even a session that will approach the machine's expected return, since they are not playing enough hands. A long odds hit of a premium hand, (dare I say, a LUCKY hit) in the short run, makes a much bigger difference in their return on any given session.
And that is true no matter what the return is of the game they play. So, why not play a better return game and get the most out of it as possible. If you hit big maybe you win $2000 vs. $1800. More is better.(putting yourself in the best position to succeed is best achieved with a stronger pay table. After that, in the short term, it's luck )
[/QUOTE]
-
mightwin
- Senior Member
- Posts: 195
- Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2008 4:24 pm
Billyjoe - don't surrender. Well maybe - because if I recall correctly - YOU'RE THE ONE that got the dealt royal on that fancy machine - laughing all the way to the bank with the $64,000 jackpot. So I don't think you're stupid. I think you've got a lot of luck on your side from the pictures you've shared. I actually had much better wins before I went to classes and started on training software. I can play more accurate according to the training materials, but seem not to win as much or as often. (that's my opinion - please don't start snarling about how wrong I am - and you know who you are that have your fingers hovering over the keyboard just waiting to correct me.) When I played by hunches or feelings, I seemed much more happier with the result of a casino visit. I had fun, win or lose. I guess I'm stupid too - because I don't want to follow some of the "correct holds" for certain hands when I've got that little voice whispering to me to do something different.
-
Frank Kneeland
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 6:59 pm
Replies in-line
OK. Can you tell me,
then, why do you have a "team" of players playing a
progressive bank of VP machines, trying to get the RF progressive
jackpot? Isn't the reason being to increase the probability of one
of them hitting an RF through more hands being played? That is my
point - the odds on hitting an RF by any one
member of your team does not change, but the probability of the
team hitting an RF increases because
more hands are being played.
The reason we try to get as many seats as possible on a
progressive is in line with the expression, “anything worth doing
is worth overdoing”. When we find a play that's worth $100 an hour
to one person it's worth $200 an hour to two people. In the absence
of competition a single person's total expected win on any given
progressive would be identical to that of a large team and it would
take on average the same amount of total man hours to complete.
Having a large teams merely speeds up the process, it does not change
the odds.
Translate that to the
individual VP player, and the probability of reaching the expected
return on a given machine's pay table is DIRECTLY related to how many
hands they play, keeping in mind that exceeding
the paytable's expected return with a (GASP!) LUCKY HIT on a premium
hand in the short run, is ALSO
a miss.
I'm sorry I don't really
understand what you are saying here so, no comment.
So from an individual's
perspective, reaching EXACTLY the expected return as dictated by the
pay table is virtually impossible, while from the casino's
perspective, it is far more likely the machine will perform MORE
profitably for the casino than the paytable's expected return,
through RFhits with less than max bets and non-perfect playing
strategies from all the players.
Running bad and running good should
occur with equal frequency on fair random machines with no bias in
either direction. Strategy errors or deviation from perfect play will
always favor the house, though the difference might be slight. You do
understand that the really good games with massive edges are never
discussed on VP forums until after the fact, nor could they be??? If
you are playing something that is well known and talked about you're
missing the boat.
For the casual player,
putting themselves on a strong pay table game may help increase their
personal return, and having the knowledge to play in a fashion that
increases their returns is a big component. But knowledge of how to
play will not guarantee a winning session, or even a session that
will approach the machine's expected return, since they are not
playing enough hands. A long odds hit of a premium hand, (dare I say,
a LUCKY hit) in the short run, makes a much bigger difference in
their return on any given session.
I see nothing wrong with
this paragraph. It's your best yet. I will add this. How many shorts
make a long???
This goes back to our old
discussion about quiting ahead and walking out of the casino a
winner.
A: It's not quiting if you
ever play again.
B: You aren't ahead, or
really winning unless you are ahead for your life-time of play.C: Sessions are basically illusory. (But it's a persistent one, I'll give you that.)
I'm sorry, Frank, but
your being a professional for 24 years does not change that, and I am
comfortable with my understanding of probability.
I respect that.
It would be very interesting and
helpful to me to know exactly why you favor your non-professional
opinion over that of a pro...as it might be indicative of a trend.
How helpful??? I recommend you email me privately and we continue
this discussion. There might be a free book or some software in it
for you. Thanks!
-
BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3198
- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
Billyjoe - don't surrender. Well maybe - because if I recall correctly - YOU'RE THE ONE that got the dealt royal on that fancy machine - laughing all the way to the bank with the $64,000 jackpot. So I don't think you're stupid. I think you've got a lot of luck on your side from the pictures you've shared.
I actually had much better wins before I went to classes and started on training software. I can play more accurate according to the training materials, but seem not to win as much or as often. (that's my opinion - please don't start snarling about how wrong I am - and you know who you are that have your fingers hovering over the keyboard just waiting to correct me.)
When I played by hunches or feelings, I seemed much more happier with the result of a casino visit. I had fun, win or lose. I guess I'm stupid too - because I don't want to follow some of the "correct holds" for certain hands when I've got that little voice whispering to me to do something different.
Thanks, MightWin. I just feel that knowledge and skill only put you in a position to win. After that, it's luck.
I actually had much better wins before I went to classes and started on training software. I can play more accurate according to the training materials, but seem not to win as much or as often. (that's my opinion - please don't start snarling about how wrong I am - and you know who you are that have your fingers hovering over the keyboard just waiting to correct me.)
When I played by hunches or feelings, I seemed much more happier with the result of a casino visit. I had fun, win or lose. I guess I'm stupid too - because I don't want to follow some of the "correct holds" for certain hands when I've got that little voice whispering to me to do something different.
Thanks, MightWin. I just feel that knowledge and skill only put you in a position to win. After that, it's luck.
-
BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3198
- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
Replies in-line
My comments in ITALICS...
[QUOTE=billy joe]
OK. Can you tell me, then, why do you have a "team" of players playing a progressive bank of VP machines, trying to get the RF progressive jackpot? Isn't the reason being to increase the probability of one of them hitting an RF through more hands being played? That is my point - the odds on hitting an RF by any one member of your team does not change, but the probability of the team hitting an RF increases because more hands are being played.
The reason we try to get as many seats as possible on a progressive is in line with the expression, “anything worth doing is worth overdoing”. When we find a play that's worth $100 an hour to one person it's worth $200 an hour to two people. In the absence of competition a single person's total expected win on any given progressive would be identical to that of a large team and it would take on average the same amount of total man hours to complete. Having a large teams merely speeds up the process, it does not change the odds.
(See, this is where I think we have a disconnect. I view "odds" as "possibility", not "probability". I agree that having a team does not change anyone's "possibility" of hitting the progressive. The "time" that you mention is just another way of measuring "number of hands", which in my view, increases the "probability".
Translate that to the individual VP player, and the probability of reaching the expected return on a given machine's pay table is DIRECTLY related to how many hands they play, keeping in mind that exceeding the paytable's expected return with a (GASP!) LUCKY HIT on a premium hand in the short run, is ALSO a miss.
I'm sorry I don't really understand what you are saying here so, no comment.
(All I am saying is that if your goal is to reach the Expected Return as dictated by the paytable, the number of hands that would need to be played is very large.)
So from an individual's perspective, reaching EXACTLY the expected return as dictated by the pay table is virtually impossible, while from the casino's perspective, it is far more likely the machine will perform MORE profitably for the casino than the paytable's expected return, through RF hits with less than max bets and non-perfect playing strategies from all the players.
Running bad and running good should occur with equal frequency on fair random machines with no bias in either direction. Strategy errors or deviation from perfect play will always favor the house, though the difference might be slight. You do understand that the really good games with massive edges are never discussed on VP forums until after the fact, nor could they be??? If you are playing something that is well known and talked about you're missing the boat.
For the casual player, putting themselves on a strong pay table game may help increase their personal return, and having the knowledge to play in a fashion that increases their returns is a big component. But knowledge of how to play will not guarantee a winning session, or even a session that will approach the machine's expected return, since they are not playing enough hands. A long odds hit of a premium hand, (dare I say, a LUCKY hit) in the short run, makes a much bigger difference in their return on any given session.
I see nothing wrong with this paragraph. It's your best yet. I will add this. How many shorts make a long???
This goes back to our old discussion about quiting ahead and walking out of the casino a winner.
A: It's not quiting if you ever play again.
B: You aren't ahead, or really winning unless you are ahead for your life-time of play.
C: Sessions are basically illusory. (But it's a persistent one, I'll give you that.)
(If someone has to travel on a fixed time schedule for a fixed number of days to a casino to play, such as myself, then I consider them a casual player. I may make a lot of trips to casino locations in a year, but since I cannot just decide today to go visit a casino today, I am a casual player. I define a "session" as how long I play in a day during one of those trips. I usually play for about four hours in a day, so for a trip of four days, that would be about 16 hours of VP play. This is why I feel that I do not play enough hands in a trip for the Expected Return math to play out. The rest of the time I am eating, playing golf, seeing a show, flirting with cocktail waitresses , using the spa, or napping . So for me, I may have a winning session, but a losing trip. I set limits of gaming money at a trip level.)
I'm sorry, Frank, but your being a professional for 24 years does not change that, and I am comfortable with my understanding of probability.
I respect that.
It would be very interesting and helpful to me to know exactly why you favor your non-professional opinion over that of a pro...as it might be indicative of a trend. How helpful??? I recommend you email me privately and we continue this discussion. There might be a free book or some software in it for you. Thanks!
(Thanks for the offer. I do not discount anyone's knowledge, but I feel that VP is pretty straight forward with regards to understanding the odds of a given game as dictated by the paytable. My goal is to come out a winner as often as I can, of course. But since I find higher volatility games more entertaining for me, I know, from time to time, the casino will get me. )
[/QUOTE]
My comments in ITALICS...
[QUOTE=billy joe]
OK. Can you tell me, then, why do you have a "team" of players playing a progressive bank of VP machines, trying to get the RF progressive jackpot? Isn't the reason being to increase the probability of one of them hitting an RF through more hands being played? That is my point - the odds on hitting an RF by any one member of your team does not change, but the probability of the team hitting an RF increases because more hands are being played.
The reason we try to get as many seats as possible on a progressive is in line with the expression, “anything worth doing is worth overdoing”. When we find a play that's worth $100 an hour to one person it's worth $200 an hour to two people. In the absence of competition a single person's total expected win on any given progressive would be identical to that of a large team and it would take on average the same amount of total man hours to complete. Having a large teams merely speeds up the process, it does not change the odds.
(See, this is where I think we have a disconnect. I view "odds" as "possibility", not "probability". I agree that having a team does not change anyone's "possibility" of hitting the progressive. The "time" that you mention is just another way of measuring "number of hands", which in my view, increases the "probability".
Translate that to the individual VP player, and the probability of reaching the expected return on a given machine's pay table is DIRECTLY related to how many hands they play, keeping in mind that exceeding the paytable's expected return with a (GASP!) LUCKY HIT on a premium hand in the short run, is ALSO a miss.
I'm sorry I don't really understand what you are saying here so, no comment.
(All I am saying is that if your goal is to reach the Expected Return as dictated by the paytable, the number of hands that would need to be played is very large.)
So from an individual's perspective, reaching EXACTLY the expected return as dictated by the pay table is virtually impossible, while from the casino's perspective, it is far more likely the machine will perform MORE profitably for the casino than the paytable's expected return, through RF hits with less than max bets and non-perfect playing strategies from all the players.
Running bad and running good should occur with equal frequency on fair random machines with no bias in either direction. Strategy errors or deviation from perfect play will always favor the house, though the difference might be slight. You do understand that the really good games with massive edges are never discussed on VP forums until after the fact, nor could they be??? If you are playing something that is well known and talked about you're missing the boat.
For the casual player, putting themselves on a strong pay table game may help increase their personal return, and having the knowledge to play in a fashion that increases their returns is a big component. But knowledge of how to play will not guarantee a winning session, or even a session that will approach the machine's expected return, since they are not playing enough hands. A long odds hit of a premium hand, (dare I say, a LUCKY hit) in the short run, makes a much bigger difference in their return on any given session.
I see nothing wrong with this paragraph. It's your best yet. I will add this. How many shorts make a long???
This goes back to our old discussion about quiting ahead and walking out of the casino a winner.
A: It's not quiting if you ever play again.
B: You aren't ahead, or really winning unless you are ahead for your life-time of play.
C: Sessions are basically illusory. (But it's a persistent one, I'll give you that.)
(If someone has to travel on a fixed time schedule for a fixed number of days to a casino to play, such as myself, then I consider them a casual player. I may make a lot of trips to casino locations in a year, but since I cannot just decide today to go visit a casino today, I am a casual player. I define a "session" as how long I play in a day during one of those trips. I usually play for about four hours in a day, so for a trip of four days, that would be about 16 hours of VP play. This is why I feel that I do not play enough hands in a trip for the Expected Return math to play out. The rest of the time I am eating, playing golf, seeing a show, flirting with cocktail waitresses , using the spa, or napping . So for me, I may have a winning session, but a losing trip. I set limits of gaming money at a trip level.)
I'm sorry, Frank, but your being a professional for 24 years does not change that, and I am comfortable with my understanding of probability.
I respect that.
It would be very interesting and helpful to me to know exactly why you favor your non-professional opinion over that of a pro...as it might be indicative of a trend. How helpful??? I recommend you email me privately and we continue this discussion. There might be a free book or some software in it for you. Thanks!
(Thanks for the offer. I do not discount anyone's knowledge, but I feel that VP is pretty straight forward with regards to understanding the odds of a given game as dictated by the paytable. My goal is to come out a winner as often as I can, of course. But since I find higher volatility games more entertaining for me, I know, from time to time, the casino will get me. )
[/QUOTE]
-
shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
[quote=billyjoe]
(All I am saying is that if your goal is to reach the Expected Return as dictated by the paytable, the number of hands that would need to be played is very large ... This is why I feel that I do not play enough hands in a trip for the Expected Return math to play out. [/QUOTE]
What occurs between the last hand of one session and first hand of the next session that affects the expected return of a game? In fact, what happens between the last hand of one trip and the first hand of the next trip?
As many people have said before, life is just one long session. Each hand is independent and your lifetime results are simply the sum of all those individual hands. The expected return is also the sum of the expected return on each hand.
You are doing what so many people do to justify their play choices. You are redefining reality and then using that new reality as a justification.
Don't take this wrong. I'm not claiming your choices are wrong for you. I just want you to make your choices based on reality. If you want to play lower return games because that fits your recreation goals, then do it by all means. But please, don't claim the mathematical reality of random play is overcome by those choices.
(All I am saying is that if your goal is to reach the Expected Return as dictated by the paytable, the number of hands that would need to be played is very large ... This is why I feel that I do not play enough hands in a trip for the Expected Return math to play out. [/QUOTE]
What occurs between the last hand of one session and first hand of the next session that affects the expected return of a game? In fact, what happens between the last hand of one trip and the first hand of the next trip?
As many people have said before, life is just one long session. Each hand is independent and your lifetime results are simply the sum of all those individual hands. The expected return is also the sum of the expected return on each hand.
You are doing what so many people do to justify their play choices. You are redefining reality and then using that new reality as a justification.
Don't take this wrong. I'm not claiming your choices are wrong for you. I just want you to make your choices based on reality. If you want to play lower return games because that fits your recreation goals, then do it by all means. But please, don't claim the mathematical reality of random play is overcome by those choices.
-
BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3198
- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
[quote=billyjoe]
(All I am saying is that if your goal is to reach the Expected Return as dictated by the paytable, the number of hands that would need to be played is very large ... This is why I feel that I do not play enough hands in a trip for the Expected Return math to play out.
What occurs between the last hand of one session and first hand of the next session that affects the expected return of a game? In fact, what happens between the last hand of one trip and the first hand of the next trip?
As many people have said before, life is just one long session. Each hand is independent and your lifetime results are simply the sum of all those individual hands. The expected return is also the sum of the expected return on each hand.
You are doing what so many people do to justify their play choices. You are redefining reality and then using that new reality as a justification.
Don't take this wrong. I'm not claiming your choices are wrong for you. I just want you to make your choices based on reality. If you want to play lower return games because that fits your recreation goals, then do it by all means. But please, don't claim the mathematical reality of random play is overcome by those choices.[/QUOTE]
All I know is that I have NEVER won(returned) 97.02 % of my coin-in in just ONE HOUR on a 9/5 TDB machine. No need to redefine any reality on that.
(All I am saying is that if your goal is to reach the Expected Return as dictated by the paytable, the number of hands that would need to be played is very large ... This is why I feel that I do not play enough hands in a trip for the Expected Return math to play out.
What occurs between the last hand of one session and first hand of the next session that affects the expected return of a game? In fact, what happens between the last hand of one trip and the first hand of the next trip?
As many people have said before, life is just one long session. Each hand is independent and your lifetime results are simply the sum of all those individual hands. The expected return is also the sum of the expected return on each hand.
You are doing what so many people do to justify their play choices. You are redefining reality and then using that new reality as a justification.
Don't take this wrong. I'm not claiming your choices are wrong for you. I just want you to make your choices based on reality. If you want to play lower return games because that fits your recreation goals, then do it by all means. But please, don't claim the mathematical reality of random play is overcome by those choices.[/QUOTE]
All I know is that I have NEVER won(returned) 97.02 % of my coin-in in just ONE HOUR on a 9/5 TDB machine. No need to redefine any reality on that.
