Objective in playing VP

[shadowman]

 
All I know is that I have NEVER won(returned) 97.02 % of my coin-in in just ONE HOUR on a 9/5 TDB machine. No need to redine any reality on that.   

 
No one is saying you will. However, as you play in the future your overall results will trend toward the expected return of the games you play.
 
My last two years highlight this very well. I had an exceptional year in 2010. I had a poor year in 2011 (I just barely managed to come out ahead). Overall, the two years came out very close to expectation.

[Frank Kneeland]

Thanks, MightWin. I just feel that knowledge and skill only put you in a position to win. After that, it's luck. This is more or less absolutely correct. I think for the peanut gallery it might be best to define luck. I can't give your definition, since I don't know it, but I can give mine. I think it is also important to stress that luck is a fickle mistress that swings both ways. For me--LUCKGetting Lucky = Doing better than expectedGetting Unlucky = Doing worse than expectedWhat's really interesting is how these basic concepts, which most would agree on, get totally distorted based on the last two words in the definition, "than expected".Since I spend most of my time scouting and playing only on really huge edges, I expect to win quite a lot on the infrequent tiny targeted play I do, this translates to the following nomenclature when applied to actual results--Winning something unexpected = Getting Very Lucky (Like a drawing you didn't know about)Winning a huge amount = Getting LuckyWinning what I expected = A day in the lifeWinning less than expected = A disappointing day in the lifeBreaking even = Getting UnluckyLosing = Getting Very UnluckyIf we take my last month, which was not typical, I ran 4% under expectancy and played very little, but since most of my play was on something with a 10% edge I still came out ahead. Do I ascribe this to luck??? Hmm...let's see. Three weeks of math work, tons of scouting and diligently watching the meter for only the best number. No! No luck there, at least not in my book. If anything I had bad luck, and still came out ahead. However, since all this was predicted and accounted for, I see only normal expected variation in my results, not "luck".Now if we look at the average tourist that comes to Vegas with $600 to lose, they may define luck very differently, since they are expecting to lose (and of course this is a non-mathematical expectation).Winning a huge amount = Getting Incredibly Lucky
Winning = Getting Very Lucky
Breaking even = Getting Lucky
Losing less than expected = Still Getting LuckyLosing what they expected = Still LuckyLosing more than expected = Getting UnluckyWhat should immediately jump out at you is that for a tourist playing without a mathematical positive expectation or aware of their expected return, they see "luck" everywhere in their wins and losses, since without a foreknowledge of your expectation, you cannot base how you do relative to how you should have done.What should also be apparent is that "luck' can be an incredibly variable word that means different things to different people. Some see it only as a retrospective analysis of past events. Others see it as a magical force they have and can use to influence future events.And in closing, be aware that the psychological community considers a belief in luck (depending on your definition) to be a strong risk factor for pathological gambling. This to be covered in my Dr. McCown interview next month.So just be careful folks, that's all I'm saying.

[faygo]

Is it really LUCK or is it really CHOICE?

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]
Thanks, MightWin. I just feel that knowledge and skill only put you in a position to win. After that, it's luck.

If we take my last month, which was not typical, I ran 4% under expectancy and played very little, but since most of my play was on something with a 10% edge I still came out ahead..
[/QUOTE] 
Frank, I will be in Vegas for Super Bowl weekend. Please point me to one of those 10% edge machines.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe] 
All I know is that I have NEVER won(returned) 97.02 % of my coin-in in just ONE HOUR on a 9/5 TDB machine. No need to redine any reality on that.   

 
No one is saying you will. However, as you play in the future your overall results will trend toward the expected return of the games you play.
 
My last two years highlight this very well. I had an exceptional year in 2010. I had a poor year in 2011 (I just barely managed to come out ahead). Overall, the two years came out very close to expectation.[/QUOTE]
Shadow, I think we are really in agreement, it is just the "time" factor that we differ on. Your saying that overall results will trend toward the expected return implies playing for a while (how many hands, I don't know), which is my point about a casual player like myself. I ABSOLUTELY will search out the best pay table within the casinos and types of VP games that I CHOOSE to play, but the relatively limited time that I play will limit my ability to trend toward that ER. As such, the best comps, playing atmosphere and tier recognition will play a greater role, for me, in choosing where to play than just a better pay table.

[Frank Kneeland]

[QUOTE=Frank Kneeland] [QUOTE=billyjoe]
Thanks, MightWin. I just feel that knowledge and skill only put you in a position to win. After that, it's luck. If we take my last month, which was not typical, I ran 4% under expectancy and played very little, but since most of my play was on something with a 10% edge I still came out ahead..[/QUOTE] 
Frank, I will be in Vegas for Super Bowl weekend. Please point me to one of those 10% edge machines. [/QUOTE]How about lunch and an invite to a super bowl party?

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe][QUOTE=Frank Kneeland] [QUOTE=billy joe]
Thanks, MightWin. I just feel that knowledge and skill only put you in a position to win. After that, it's luck.

If we take my last month, which was not typical, I ran 4% under expectancy and played very little, but since most of my play was on something with a 10% edge I still came out ahead..
[/QUOTE] 
Frank, I will be in Vegas for Super Bowl weekend. Please point me to one of those 10% edge machines. [/QUOTE]

How about lunch and an invite to a super bowl party?
[/QUOTE]
Lunch - no problem. Thursday, Feb 8th, your choice of any Harrah's/Caesars or MGM properties. preferably the one where the 10% edge machine is at.  
We are attending the SB party at Caesars' Emperors Room this year, though, and tickets for my wife and I in that room is all that I can get.   

[Frank Kneeland]

Is it really LUCK or is it really CHOICE?Funny you should ask that in that way!I believe it is a choice between believing in luck or not.Have you heard about the Chinese Dragon baby debacle?http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-16675364 They believe that babies born in the Year of the Dragon are luckier, smarter and destined for greatness. The really mind numbing thing is that because of people's expectation and something called the Pygmalion effect the Chinese put disproportionate expectation and effort into raising Dragon babies. So in the past being born a Dragon baby might actually have been better if for no other reason than people creating their own reality and their biased expectations.Now however with China's population at the tipping point it is expected that the, once per 12 years, dragon baby boon will push services to the breaking point and reduce opportunity and quality of education. It's no longer lucky, of course it never was.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pygmalion_effectBasically, luck is a way of explaining a perceived effect for which our minds lack another better explanation. The more one understands math and true causation the less luck there seems to be. Saying something was caused by luck is really like saying you don't know what caused it. It is not an explanation, it is a lack of understanding.If you stop believing in it, it will disappear. Of course what happens to you won't change only your perceptions alter.

[Frank Kneeland]

Lunch - no problem. Thursday, Feb 8th, your choice of any Harrah's/Caesars or MGM properties. preferably the one where the 10% edge machine is at.  
We are attending the SB party at Caesars' Emperors Room this year, though, and tickets for my wife and I in that room is all that I can get.   When you get to town email me. My email is to be found at the top of this page in encrypted format.https://www.progressivevp.com/testimoni ... views.phpI don't post it as clear text to avoid spiders and spam.The party I'm gong to is in a private suite at the palms.~FKP.S. The 10% edge machines only get up about once a week and aren't in Vegas.

[BillyJoe]

~FK

P.S. The 10% edge machines only get up about once a week and aren't in Vegas.
 
How far away? I can walk pretty fast.