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Beginners Strategy
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faygo
- Video Poker Master
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Re: Beginners Strategy
Frank I don't mean to demean your well thought out disertation on choice, but it reminded me of Yogi Berra giving instructions on how to get to his home. Yogi said "when you get to the fork in the road.... take it".
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BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
[QUOTE=billyjoe]
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given paytable.
As others have pointed out, the expected return applies to each and every hand, and you do not have to play limitless numbers of hands to reach, or even exceed, it.
A few years ago, my wife and I were staying at the Barbary Coast. (alas, it is now Bill's gamblin hall). A friend of my wife, who had a free airline ticket due to being bumped off a previous flight, decided to use her freebie and join us for a few days in Las Vegas (a place she had always wanted to visit).
Even though she is not a regular video poker player, she jumped in "with both feet", and played video poker with us. She did very well, playing triple line 25c nsu deuces. She had several sets of deuces, and a royal flush. She went home up a substantial amount. In her case she didn't have to play very many hands at all to greatly exceed the ER of the paytable.[/QUOTE]
But see, Onemoretry, that IS my point. Your friend did not hit the ER with the limited amount of hands - she EXCEEDED it for that game and pay table during that session.
The point I have been trying to make is that if people play one game versus another SOLELY because it has a better ER, they will not play enough hands to see that ER difference materialize. As your friend did, they may exceed it, or another time, they may fall short.
All other things being equal, I will always choose a better paytable, but for me, there are a range of other things that I consider before that.
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given paytable.
As others have pointed out, the expected return applies to each and every hand, and you do not have to play limitless numbers of hands to reach, or even exceed, it.
A few years ago, my wife and I were staying at the Barbary Coast. (alas, it is now Bill's gamblin hall). A friend of my wife, who had a free airline ticket due to being bumped off a previous flight, decided to use her freebie and join us for a few days in Las Vegas (a place she had always wanted to visit).
Even though she is not a regular video poker player, she jumped in "with both feet", and played video poker with us. She did very well, playing triple line 25c nsu deuces. She had several sets of deuces, and a royal flush. She went home up a substantial amount. In her case she didn't have to play very many hands at all to greatly exceed the ER of the paytable.[/QUOTE]
But see, Onemoretry, that IS my point. Your friend did not hit the ER with the limited amount of hands - she EXCEEDED it for that game and pay table during that session.
The point I have been trying to make is that if people play one game versus another SOLELY because it has a better ER, they will not play enough hands to see that ER difference materialize. As your friend did, they may exceed it, or another time, they may fall short.
All other things being equal, I will always choose a better paytable, but for me, there are a range of other things that I consider before that.
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BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
[QUOTE=billy joe][QUOTE=Frank Kneeland] I really don't know where you got the idea that anyone said anything about every session being profitable. You seem to be mixing expectancy and results.
Having a positive expectation on a game of chance does not mean you expect to win every session. If you thought that's what we said, or that's what it means, you do not understand the concept of expectancy at all. It is confusing, so don't feel too bad.
Well, Frank, I don't think that I am mixing anything. I believe in the "Law of Independent Trials" when it comes to VP, in that what happened before does not affect the future. All I expect is that the game will pay me according to the pay table every time on every hand. Sorry if I "don't feel too bad" about that.
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given pay table. Playing a game with a better pay table may help increase your overall return, but will not guarantee it. [/QUOTE]
Yes that's about right...I'm shocked, not at our differences, but at our similarities.
3. But that's not the issue. The real question is how many hands does a recreational player have to play to know they picked the best game with the best odds, and that they made the best decision they could with the information available to them ??? The answer to this question is not millions...it is 1.
You seem hung up on the long-term issue, but all the advice on what game to play works for no hands, 1 hand, a million hands, or an infinite number of hands.
[/QUOTE]
Well, Frank, now I think that YOU are mixing up two things: odds and ER. The odds apply to EVERY hand as an independent event, without regard to a paytable. The ER relates to payback over time, with many hands played, for a given paytable.
Maybe you agree, maybe not. But I play VP games with a 52 card deck (I don't play Joker Poker) per hand, so for any given hand, the odds of catching a particular set of 5 cards after I am dealt my initial 5 cards are easily calculated. My payback on that particular final set of 5 cards for that one hand is known, based on the pay table for that game. All other things being equal, I will ALWAYS choose a game with a better paytable.
What I am saying, though, is that I will not chase a better pay table to the exclusion of all those other factors (comps, tier recognition, cute waitresses, etc) in the hopes of achieving a higher ER, because I do not believe that I, as a casual player, could play enough hands to approach it.
Having a positive expectation on a game of chance does not mean you expect to win every session. If you thought that's what we said, or that's what it means, you do not understand the concept of expectancy at all. It is confusing, so don't feel too bad.
Well, Frank, I don't think that I am mixing anything. I believe in the "Law of Independent Trials" when it comes to VP, in that what happened before does not affect the future. All I expect is that the game will pay me according to the pay table every time on every hand. Sorry if I "don't feel too bad" about that.
I also believe that each pay table has an Expected Return that is calculated by using a perfect play strategy over a large number of hands. The probability of reaching that Expected Return is a function of the number of hands that you play, whether it is in an hour, a session, or a life time. A recreational player cannot play enough hands, even in a life time, to expect to reach the ER on a given pay table. Playing a game with a better pay table may help increase your overall return, but will not guarantee it. [/QUOTE]
Yes that's about right...I'm shocked, not at our differences, but at our similarities.
3. But that's not the issue. The real question is how many hands does a recreational player have to play to know they picked the best game with the best odds, and that they made the best decision they could with the information available to them ??? The answer to this question is not millions...it is 1.
You seem hung up on the long-term issue, but all the advice on what game to play works for no hands, 1 hand, a million hands, or an infinite number of hands.
[/QUOTE]
Well, Frank, now I think that YOU are mixing up two things: odds and ER. The odds apply to EVERY hand as an independent event, without regard to a paytable. The ER relates to payback over time, with many hands played, for a given paytable.
Maybe you agree, maybe not. But I play VP games with a 52 card deck (I don't play Joker Poker) per hand, so for any given hand, the odds of catching a particular set of 5 cards after I am dealt my initial 5 cards are easily calculated. My payback on that particular final set of 5 cards for that one hand is known, based on the pay table for that game. All other things being equal, I will ALWAYS choose a game with a better paytable.
What I am saying, though, is that I will not chase a better pay table to the exclusion of all those other factors (comps, tier recognition, cute waitresses, etc) in the hopes of achieving a higher ER, because I do not believe that I, as a casual player, could play enough hands to approach it.
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Frank Kneeland
- VP Veteran
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- Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 6:59 pm
What I am saying, though, is that I will not chase a better pay table to the exclusion of all those other factors (comps, tier recognition, cute waitresses, etc) in the hopes of achieving a higher ER, because I do not believe that I, as a casual player, could play enough hands to approach it. In the circles I travel we use ER and odds interchangeably, but I'm sure you're right they probably have slightly different meanings to some people.I also tend to favor casinos with better looking waitresses and perks if the ER of the games is close. I will not play a dead negative expectancy. I have to have at least break-even plus perks, and even then I play only as little as I can to get the perks. I reserve my serious action for massive edges. Of course that's just me.~FK
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royal flush
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:50 pm
they dont get the idea that "ER" works every hand including in your illustrations of 9 vs 8 on full house and 6 vs 5 on flush and the effect on the players bankroll. thats why there is still some 100% games and good progressives that better players can still get. i like your efforts. you shadowman and I along with a couple of other folks are winning players over time
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Frank Kneeland
- VP Veteran
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- Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 6:59 pm
they dont get the idea that "ER" works every hand including in your illustrations of 9 vs 8 on full house and 6 vs 5 on flush and the effect on the players bankroll. thats why there is still some 100% games and good progressives that better players can still get. i like your efforts. you shadowman and I along with a couple of other folks are winning players over timeIf you are correct, that they don't get it, I need to know why and how to fix it. It is after all my job to bring this kind of information to the masses, and I'm about to have a new nation wide show that I'd like to be as broad and widely liked as possible.~FK
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royal flush
- Video Poker Master
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it cant be fixed thats why players like you, shadowman, and i are winning players
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Frank Kneeland
- VP Veteran
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it cant be fixed thats why players like you, shadowman, and i are winning players Well don't be too quick to lump me in there. I get paid salary to play machines. I literally can't lose, which is hardly gambling. Of course my employers make money, so I guess your statement is still correct.
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Frank Kneeland
- VP Veteran
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- Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 6:59 pm
it cant be fixed thats why players like you, shadowman, and i are winning players @Royal FlushI just learned in my interview with Dr. McCown that a new combined approach to problem gambling treatment, incorporating cognitive behavioral therapy, has seen a ten fold increase in successful treatment rates. I did not know that.I knew of cognitive behavioral therapy. It's where I get my article ideas from. I did not know it was now considered the latest and greatest thing you can do for gamblers, would-be or problem alike.I started writing about cognitive distortion 12 years ago. Chapter 2 of my book is devoted to it. I find it stunning that this has now become standard operating procedure.I can't give doctor's advice, because I'm not a doctor. Perhaps, if people know I'm quoting them, more will listen. It seems the single most frustrating thing about forum posting is that one can spend six months doing research, and then another month of writing to paraphrase 50 years of scientific study, and when you post the information people still think it's "YOUR OPINION". You can even include references, but no one checks them. It can be frustrating.~FK
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BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
they don't get the idea that "ER" works every hand including in your illustrations of 9 vs 8 on full house and 6 vs 5 on flush and the effect on the players bankroll. that's why there is still some 100% games and good progressives that better players can still get. i like your efforts. you shadowman and I along with a couple of other folks are winning players over time
All I can say is that I am humbled by your statement. And, to be honest, maybe somewhat confused. The last time I looked, the casinos are not set up to be consistently beat out of real money over a relatively short period of time. That is why the comps need to be part of the overall equation.
All I can say is that I am humbled by your statement. And, to be honest, maybe somewhat confused. The last time I looked, the casinos are not set up to be consistently beat out of real money over a relatively short period of time. That is why the comps need to be part of the overall equation.
