New Strategy in 2012

[Frank Kneeland]

The important question is, were you wearing your VideoPoker.com hat last year? Because I've heard good thing about the ER wearing those things.

OK that's funny. @webman: We met at the G2 conference right?

[New2vp]

The important question is, were you wearing your VideoPoker.com hat last year? Because I've heard good thing about the ER wearing those things.

But what if the effects only last for one year?

[Webman]

@webman: We met at the G2 conference right?Yes, indeed we did. But what if the effects only last for one year?

That would certainly be worth researching. But at just $12.95, assuming you put $100,000 through the machines in a year, you would only need an ER improvement of 0.0001295 to make it worth getting a fresh one!

[Frank Kneeland]

I say buy the hat, it couldn't hurt, and webman works hard. If enough people listen he might get a raise, and he deserves it.~FK

[Webman]

  Thanks, Frank.I'd much rather someone get a Gold membership. Then in addition to the other goodies, they could spend some time in training more which might ACTUALLY improve their ER. And if they go annual, we'll throw in that lucky hat for free. Back to our regularly scheduled program, Billyjoe's Millions.

[edog743]

So if I go annual I get a lucky hat?

[Webman]

See PM, edog.

[BillyJoe]

The important question is, were you wearing your VideoPoker.com hat last year? Because I've heard good thing about the ER wearing those things.


Actually, I was. I have a couple, you know, but ONLY when I wear the one that I won from you (still has your sweat stain on the inside band) did I seem to have the good fortune. Maybe all this math stuff is overrated, and it's just wardrobe..

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]

Well, I had a good 2011 in VP, thanks in part to some nice hits, even though I played mostly volatile VP games, like TDB. I was thinking, though, of changing my strategy for 2012, and play less-volatile games with the best pay tables that I can find I'm going to let shadow and New2VP answer your other questions, I wanted to focus on something else, you! Hats off and celebrations all around. What you are describing is nothing less than an understanding of one of  life's great secrets, and it can help you be far more than merely a better gambler: The role of chance.You employed a strategy in 2011 and it worked for you in 2011, and yet your eyes are open to the possibility that chance and not your actions and choices were the cause of your success. Even in the blinding light of success you are looking past that to the shadow of future choice cognizant of the fact that in gambling the past may not be the best predictor of the future. Do you have any idea how rare that is? Kudos!You are also considering going from games with huge swings to ones with less fluctuation, which is even rarer. The tendency amongst gamblers, and especially problem gamblers is to go up in denomination and to play riskier and riskier games. The direction you are headed is towards safe, controlled wagering and very low risk to ever develop problems.Given the incredible year you had you may never top that, and if you change to safer games you probably never will, so don't try. Know that you dodged a semi-truck and revel in your choice not to keep playing in traffic.~FK[/QUOTE]
Thanks, Frank. You actually nailed my thought process exactly. I recognize that some of my wins last year were extremely rare, and to expect to duplicate that year after year is a fool's errand. I enjoy playing VP, but I would be VERY unhappy in the poor house. Now, if I can just keep from falling off the bandwagon.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe]if I am playing anything other than a pay table with a 100%+ ,  then playing multi-line versus single line will not increase my overall ER for a trip.  Do I have that right?
Multiline does NOT change ER (the percent of bets gained or lost) of a game, whether the game is negative, positive, or breakeven.To determine the expected number of coins lost per hour, you need to multiply the ER by the number of coins bet per dealt hand and then multiply that number by the number of dealt hands played per hour.  (If you are playing a dollar machine, this will also be the number of expected dollars lost per hour; if you are playing any other machine, you need a final multiplication based on the value of each coin.) If you have an ER of 99%, for single line, your expected loss per dealt hand is 1% x 5 coins = 0.05 coins.  Multiply that by your number of dealt hands per hour to get your expected loss per hour.  If you play 600 hands per hour, then that would be 600 hands per hour x 0.05 coins per hand = 30 coins lost per hour. If you have an ER of 99%, for 10-play, your expected loss per dealt hand is 1% x 50 coins = 0.50 coins per dealt hand, exactly 10 times your expected loss in coins for single line but the SAME PERCENTAGE OF THE AMOUNT BET on each dealt hand.  Now, your expected loss in coins per hour on 10-play might be less than 10 times the expected loss in single line if you play fewer dealt hands per hour when you are playing multi line. If you only play 500 hands per hour of 10 play, your expected loss in coins per hour would be 500 hands per hour x 0.50 coins per dealt hand = 250 coins lost per hour. I apologize in advance if I went into too much detail, but based on your question, I thought it best not to make too many assumptions and err on the side of over explanation. Probably the worst of both worlds, too boring for the things you already understand and too complex for light skimming of the things you might not.[/QUOTE]Thanks for the reply, New2VP. I believe that I see your point - it is really a function of the number of hands played at a certain pay table that dictates ER, whether those hands are played one at a time or in groups of ten. I guess I thought that maybe, in the short run (sorry), that having more draws at a rare dealt hand, like trips or straights or flushes, may change the ER a little more positive. But overall, the math rules, so even if I may have a great session on 10-way, the next several sessions may not be so great.