South Point tomorrow.

[backsider]

I have a question. I read VPFREE but never post on it, and if I asked this there I dont think Id get that great of an explanation.

I remember reading someones announcement about a leapday special but Im not up on the details. In fact, I even think a few posters came on and corrected the promotion info. What I can recall is theyre handing out two or three times points for the day, and on a deuceswild game it is supposed to be a $60/hour affair. I did not see what denomination that was for.

Ok, I kind of get where the make believe per hour earnings figure comes from, but what I dont get is how or why anyone bothers saying such a thing. Are we expected to think that South Point is just GIVING it away tomorrow?

To a player like me this announcement makes no sense at all. Id rather play the game, compile my financial results, then come onto the forums (if its really that important to announce) and explain that if I won $100 including points and I played for 4 hours, I made $25/hour. Or, if I lost $150 then Id say it cost me $37.50/hour to waste my time at this thing. I guess Im asking why sugarcoat something as a theory when nobody has any idea if it was a good play or not until after the visit is done? Going back to my fiveplay royal again when I played all of 30 minutes, according to this method, I was probably playing something the sharpies here would criticise as COSTING me seventy bucks an hour, when in reality I MADE MONEY AT A $40,000/hour clip!

Why all the mystery surrounding these things? I like to keep it simple stupid.

[Eduardo]

First, to say that you have to learn to play deuces with a high percentage of accuracy. If you play a strategy (or lack of strategy) and make mistakes or deviate in a way that will have a 95% return, you can't claim that it's going to be a $60/hour affair for you. But I agree, saying it is a XX dollar per hour play is silly for most people, UNLESS you make a profession out of it by playing a lot. Maybe that's what the people you are describing do. Then we see things do average out to those plays and I don't mind them stating it that way. But from what I know about you, it's going to be a hit or miss effort and I really hope you hit. Go win big!

[BobDancer]

It is probably useless to try to explain something to Backsider, but here goes a try. The reason you should work out the projected EV is so that you know whether it's a better play to play at the Palms, South Point, GVR, or whatever. You need to make the calculation BEFORE you play because you can only spend a given set of hours at one place. Your after-the-fact methodology gives you no power to predict what will happen. While nobody knows what will happen this particular time (that's because of variance), people who generally play on $60/hour EV plays will do better over time than players who generally play on  $10/hour EV plays.  Nobody thinking correctly expects that if you play a $60/hour game for three hours you will come out exactly $180 ahead. That's not the purpose of the prediction. But they do expect that if they play this game for 1,000 hours they will be ahead "about" $60,000.  Bob

[backsider]

Eduardo thank you for understanding my doubt.

Mr. D., Im wondering dont the casino bosses KNOW the thing about sharpies making $60k on such a play in a thousand hours? If thats true, why would they do such a thing?

Im also seeing you are more on the same frequency as someone like Frank than most of us, because a per hour pretend earnings theory means next to zero for how we play. But I thank you for explaining your motivation to me.

[BobDancer]

There's a reason that Frank (FK) and I (BD) sound similar. It's appropriate to group Shadowman (SM) with us as well. Likely others too, but I haven't been here long enough to identify the handles. We are winning players who are attempting to explain how we do it. It's clear from your posts, backsider (BS), that you do not have a clue about the winning process. You seem far more intent on explaining your ideas (which don't work) than in understanding what people whose ideas do work are saying. On this site, so long as we follow the rules, each of us have the same right to post. You seem to confuse that with having the same chance of being right. That's not true at all. Much of winning gambling is applied math and there are right and wrong answers. While everybody makes mistakes sometimes and even a blind pig finds an acorn now and then, the probability of a FK or SM or BD post having correct and useful information is very high. Based on the sample of about 20 BS posts that I've seen, the probability of a BS post having correct and useful information is very low. Bob 

[shadowman]

Mr. D., Im wondering dont the casino bosses KNOW the thing about sharpies making $60k on such a play in a thousand hours? If thats true, why would they do such a thing?



 
I'm amazed that anyone does not know the answer to this question. It's called marketing.
 
Ever seen coupons before? How about 2-1 deals? How about giving money just to test drive a car? The list goes on and on.
 
Why do businesses do these things? Simple, to get people to try their products and hopefully return in the future. Are there people who take advantage of promotions like these, absolutely, and that is figured into the business model.
 
If you would take the blinders off you might just learn something. Clearly, everyone of your comments centers around what is called confirmation bias. You have formed your opinion and look at anything and everything through filters that support your bias.
 
And, it's unlikely you will change. You don't want to change. You would rather keep repeating the same nonsense over and over rather than look at anything objectively. You see this more often in politics, but it can and does invade other aspects of thinking.

[royal flush]

you through basic paytables frank through progressives. i used to play 21 as a card counter then video poker when dollar and 2 dollar fpdw and some casino promotions that could add 3% or more to the value making a 99% game a 102% game now with few vp plays only 25c fpdw and few god progressives i play more live poker as i can still get an edge also in the market i write put options and if assigned write covered calls. the key to any game is to find an edge (if their is one) and no edge dont play you and frank and jean scott have helped many players improve their play. the downside is casinos evolve so must 

[royal flush]

my handle is easy "royal flush" now go hit one

[backsider]

[QUOTE=backsider] Mr. D., Im wondering dont the casino bosses KNOW the thing about sharpies making $60k on such a play in a thousand hours? If thats true, why would they do such a thing?


 
I'm amazed that anyone does not know the answer to this question. It's called marketing.
 
Ever seen coupons before? How about 2-1 deals? How about giving money just to test drive a car? The list goes on and on.
 
Why do businesses do these things? Simple, to get people to try their products and hopefully return in the future. Are there people who take advantage of promotions like these, absolutely, and that is figured into the business model.
 
If you would take the blinders off you might just learn something. Clearly, everyone of your comments centers around what is called confirmation bias. You have formed your opinion and look at anything and everything through filters that support your bias.
 
And, it's unlikely you will change. You don't want to change. You would rather keep repeating the same nonsense over and over rather than look at anything objectively. You see this more often in politics, but it can and does invade other aspects of thinking.[/QUOTE]
 I asked Bob D. that last question because he responded politely to me. You felt compelled to reply the way you did because it gave you another chance to do more of your meanspirited inner-conflict and anger release.  Im sure youve heard what the definition of insanity is: giving the same wrong answers to a question continuously with no apparent resolution and for no apparent reason. You however are unable to see what youre doing, because if you feel youre saying the same thing over and over and it doesnt change the result you seek, youre either confused, or insane.  ''''''''