trip from hell

[shadowman]

Frank is being as diplomatic as he can be. All I can say is I've heard the same types of comments every year for the last 20 years. Machines have been set to pay lower than they used to be. When I asked folks when they used to be higher it was always in the past couple of years.
 
So, year after year some folks think the games have been set to pay back a lower amount then the previous couple of years. Now, how can this be? Obviously, it can't be. The years some people are complaining about paying worse are the exact same years others are saying used to pay better. Welcome to randomness.

[ravenbynight111]

 I am from the school of corruption is everywhere, govt,big  corporations, which includes casinos.I know folks in are country believe everything is on the square.I am not one of those fools.My point is casinos do what ever they want, and you just have to hope you are in the right place at the right time.To take 1 step further my brother lives in the twin cities and his neighbor of 17 years just got laid off about 11 months ago. They have become very close. This man use to be a top manager for one of the bigger gaming companies in the world, My brother has had the discussion about the the machines, and his neighbor told him he really could not get into specifics. He did say that the casinos basically control the randomness of the machines. Off to work

[shadowman]

Of course, a friend of a friend who .... do I need to go any further. So, is this dude going to file a complaint with the MN gaming commission? If not, why not?


 
You do realize that casinos do control the payouts of standard slot machines and they are not required to be random in the same manner as VP machines? So, this guy could easily have been simply referring to what is already a well known fact.
 
I don't mind people believing whatever nonsense they choose. However, if you're going to spread that kind of rumor around you should have something to back it up or you come across as paranoid ... and one would wonder why you ever step foot in a casino.

[brmcc74]

One thing that Id like to add. When I first started playing vp, my bankroll and the amount that I was willing to wager was much smaller. Probably true for many people. That being said, It would be easier for me to notice a bad/non winning trip than a good one because the monetary and hourly loss would be much greater. Most people will keep increasing the amount along the way.  ManyPeople have remorse also after a losing session. They will say, Wow I could have bought furniture or made another large purchase that they ordinarilly wouldnt have done. IE I could have done so much other with that 3k I just blew. This is Gamblers Remorse 101, welcome. Happens to most people who frequent any  casino, unless you are a supposed pro from what I gather. Anyhow, Casinos do not want anyone to win. They lure you in with promos, and bs free play and act like they hope you win. They are dirty and greedy and will stop at nothing to get all of your $. Theyre top 2 customers are problem gamblers and tourist. Both easy victims to be had. If a player succeeds, they fail. Nothing complicated here. I do feel however that the American casinos are tightly regulated and wouldnt compromise their license on some vp machine. They dont need to. That being said vp is 100% random. Ive talked in the past about random though, and most people will never understand that random can KILL your bankroll. It goes both ways. Casinos CAN and DO change payouts on regular slot machines though. This is within the gaming regulations guidelines. They usually have 4 seperate settings that a  slot machine can be set to. Slot machines ARE NOT the same as VP machines. Bottom Line= If you go to a casino and give it a shot, just plan that whatever $ you brought is GONE as soon as you walk through the door. If you win, great good job, have a nice day, come back and see us again-soon.

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank is being as diplomatic as he can be. All I can say is I've heard the same types of comments every year for the last 20 years. Machines have been set to pay lower than they used to be. When I asked folks when they used to be higher it was always in the past couple of years.
 
So, year after year some folks think the games have been set to pay back a lower amount then the previous couple of years. Now, how can this be? Obviously, it can't be. The years some people are complaining about paying worse are the exact same years others are saying used to pay better. Welcome to randomness.I'd like to squelch any thoughts that
I'm being "diplomatic". Ravenbright did manage to start a
very interesting thread that has sparked some fascinating discussion.
If not for comments like hers we'd have nothing to talk about and I
am genuinely grateful, it's not feigned.You made an excellent
point about this being an ongoing issue with some people somewhere
always claiming that things have gotten worse, which is of course
impossible. This reminds me of a weird phenomenon I first heard when
in vacation in San Francisco: Check it out it'll blow your
mind!http://www.exploratorium.edu/exhibits/h ... ous.htmlIf
machines WERE totally random you'd expect some people to do worse
than they had previous years. I believe the odds of doing worse or
better than one had done in a previous year are roughly 50/50, which
would provide a constant supply of people that really did experience
diminishing returns. Of course there is an equal number of people that experienced increasing returns, who are simply silent, because people rarely question good fortune.  Then you add a simple post hoc ergo propter hoc
error when they draw the conclusion that the "reason" for
their inferior results was not chance alone and bingo! You have
explained the phenomenon, or explained it away as the case may be.

The danger here is that if you are a
professional gambler, or semi-pro that WANTS to believe that machines
are random you may fall pray to exactly the same kinds of mental
traps that I described in my other post, only for the other side of
the argument.

If you believe machines are random:
You'll find evidence to support this and dismiss evidence like
ravenbright's that contradicts your “desired” position.

If you believe machines are
non-random: You'll find evidence to support this and dismiss evidence
like Arci's that contradicts your “desired” position.

The only way around this is to take "desire" out of the equation.Just like the
subjects in the confirmation bias experiment, any information either
side looks at will only strengthen their current position regardless
of what it is. In the absence of dispassionate scientific study
there's little chance of resolving a discussion like this and further
discussion only polarizes BOTH sides.

Now here's what
you need to know. I used to agree with ravenbright. I wanted to
believe that casinos played around with more than just the paytable.
The only difference between us is that I had access to team records
and could look at the results of a massive numbers of hands played by
many people over a long period of time. I wasted a lot of time trying
to prove that machines weren't always fair and random and in all that
wasted time all I got for my efforts was frustration. Everything
(scientific) said chance alone was at work.

The BIG difference
here is that I applied the scientific method and rather than trying
to PROVE my beliefs, I tried to disprove them. Sadly, for me this
turned out to be all to easy. I was wrong.

(Note: All the
large scale studies I did into the fairness of machines were done in
the 90's. All I can say for sure is that I saw nothing to support
machines being anything other than fair and random back them. I have
no large-scale info more recent than 12 years ago.)

[Frank Kneeland]

 I am from the school of corruption is everywhere, govt,big  corporations, which includes casinos.I know folks in are country believe everything is on the square.I am not one of those fools.My point is casinos do what ever they want, and you just have to hope you are in the right place at the right time.To take 1 step further my brother lives in the twin cities and his neighbor of 17 years just got laid off about 11 months ago. They have become very close. This man use to be a top manager for one of the bigger gaming companies in the world, My brother has had the discussion about the the machines, and his neighbor told him he really could not get into specifics. He did say that the casinos basically control the randomness of the machines. Off to work


Skepticism, especially about the better angels of human nature is wise and prudent. For goodness sake don't let me talk you out of that. Be afraid, be very afraid...and doubt what people tell you.ANDWhat science is telling us these days is that human perception is far more flawed than we had previously known, so to the skepticism of others we must add skepticism of ourselves...especially where we want to believe something or have preconceived ideas.Be skeptical of people, and don't forget you are a "people" to.

[BillyJoe]

 I am from the school of corruption is everywhere, govt,big  corporations, which includes casinos.I know folks in are country believe everything is on the square.I am not one of those fools.My point is casinos do what ever they want, and you just have to hope you are in the right place at the right time.To take 1 step further my brother lives in the twin cities and his neighbor of 17 years just got laid off about 11 months ago. They have become very close. This man use to be a top manager for one of the bigger gaming companies in the world, My brother has had the discussion about the the machines, and his neighbor told him he really could not get into specifics. He did say that the casinos basically control the randomness of the machines. Off to work

HMMM. I was dealt an RF playing Double-Pay on a $1 Five Star Poker machine this past year. I was paid $64,000. Not too bright of that casino if they really do control the VP machine pay-outs.

[Frank Kneeland]

I'll be away from posting for the rest of the day. So good luck our there. And to Ravenbynight I just wanted you to know I used to be exactly of your mindset and I just wanted to spare you all the dateless nights and failed laborious mathematical work I spent in my early years. If you do decide to learn your way around the math needed to prove that machines aren't random and find something, I look forward to your report. Remember my info is over a decade old. I'd love to hear from someone that had done more recent work on "the problem".

[ravenbynight111]

[backsider]

I'll be away from posting for the rest of the day. So good luck our there. And to Ravenbynight I just wanted you to know I used to be exactly of your mindset and I just wanted to spare you all the dateless nights and failed laborious mathematical work I spent in my early years. If you do decide to learn your way around the math needed to prove that machines aren't random and find something, I look forward to your report. Remember my info is over a decade old. I'd love to hear from someone that had done more recent work on "the problem".
 Then you must not have been a poster on that wizzards of vegas forum when RS offered to show all his detailed test results of many pages from when he had a nevada vp machine at his home last year and he says he has the data from a few billion virtual hands or something like that that proves the machines are not as random as we think. As I recall, once he spelled out what he was exactly going to show them, the math people wanted him to pay their travel expenses and book rooms and feed them to come look at it and discuss those results, which looked like another way of his critics saying theyd rather be safe than sorry. Then he either quit or the wizzard banned him after that.  People SAY they really would like to see something of this sort, but when it comes right down to it, they really dont.The easy way out all the time,  At least thats what I got out of it.