What Would It Take???

[Frank Kneeland]

billyjoe, You raise a very good point about the results of such an endeavor to prove or disprove All VP machines are random. There are thousands of them in numerous casinos in a number of states across the country.

I think for me to believe 100% that VP machines are truly random, I would need to hear it from the programmer who coded the software inside 1 particular machine. If they swear or perhaps take a lie detector test that this one machine is truly fair and random...then I would believe it.

Any other method of people playing X amount of hands, not so sure I would take it as 100% truth or accurate. I don't mean I don't trust the person or people doing the testing just not so sure about the results.Well I don't see the programmer taking a lie detector as a very likely scenario.As far as people playing X amount of hands and you not taking it as 100% accurate, this is as it should be. The "people" would be you, not someone else...and 100% accuracy is not possible with the probability math used to determine if things are random. There are some very good tests that work great, but realistically you can only ever be 99.99% sure, and even this takes a long time (Too Long). In political polling they only shoot for what's known as statistical significance, which is 95% certain with an error margin.~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

Sorry Frank but what you are proposing is just "busy work" and I certainly don't have time for busy work. I trust that the machines are fair and random. If you want to perform a public service, then by all means please go after those who are making the claims that the games are rigged and that there are secret handshake deals within the gaming industry to allow the games to be rigged and prove that they are right or they are wrong. THAT would be a public service. The busy work I don't need.  Sorry to be blunt but you don't have to prove to me that wheels roll better than cubes.
When we talk on the phone or have lunch I never seem to have a problem with you, but when we converse by forum or email I always find myself at a complete loss to understand you or where you are coming from.In the opening post I asked people not to make this thread about whether or not machines were random, keep their opinions to themselves, and instead focus on how people can prove it to themselves.In reply you have stated your opinion and you have failed to mention what convinced you and how people can do what you did for themselves. You did exactly what I asked people not to do, and you failed to do what I did ask people to do. You could not have been more off-topic if you tired...and then you essentially stated that you thought the entire exercise was a waste of your time and you weren't going to do it. That's great, don't do it. No one asked you to. I'm at a loss as to why you felt it necessary to say you weren't going to say anything. I can only hope that everyone on the planet that isn't interested in this thread doesn't chime in to say that they aren't interested or this thread is going to fill up pretty fast.If you'd like to contribute, great! What would be helpful is if you detailed how you became certain of your position (for or against--doesn't matter) so that it can be reviewed and duplicated.And as far as me going after people that are making claims of any kind, that's the furthest thing from my mind. This is supposed to be an attempt to create a method (possibly spread sheet utility) for people to use to analyze their own records.~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank= Not sure that you could prove it. Most machines dont pay out at their advertised amount anyway. By this I mean that a pay table of say JOB 99.54% wouldnt pay off that exact amount.  99.54 is the mean for the machine. This would be for the life of the machine. What is the "life" of a machine? Who knows but I am convinced that the amount returned will almost always be higher or lower than advertised. This would be due to randomness. In order to achieve the mean of a pay table, the player would have to be a perfect hold player anyway.
Maybe the question should be.............What personal experiences have occurred for an individual to believe that machines aren't random?I have no intention of proving anything. This is about teaching people how to prove it to themselves using their own records. No one skeptical is ever going to believe anything anyone else tells them, they may however trust themselves.I don't think going off return is the best way to go either, though you made a great case for machines being random by your statement that they, "wouldn't pay off that exact amount". I wonder how many people know that machines not paying off what they are rated to pay off is an argument for, not against randomness?Anyway see my next post entitled, "Wish List".

[Frank Kneeland]

WISH LIST1. The method needs to be completely nonpartisan, unbiased and impartial. In other words it can't be a method for proving machines are random, and it can't be a way to prove they are not.  It must have an equal chance of proving either side correct, regardless of which one is.2. It should be easy enough for anyone, even someone on the low end of math savvy to employ. (I'm considering coding it into a spread sheet and sharing it for free of course.)3. It should not take a ridiculously large sample of hands to work. It should be something pros and recreational players could both do in perhaps a month (At most) (Less would be better).4. It should provide 99% certainty.5. It should work for any game.6. It should be strategy independent. (Perhaps based on dealt hands and not made hands???) This would keep the human element out of the equation.I'm hoping our resident math gurus chime in and help.~FK

[ko king]

Are vp machines fair and random, it might not take a lot to convince me they were if I could get the answer to this question.
I can play vp in 3 states,Missouri, Mississippi and Arkansas, all 3 states claim to have Class II vp. I don't play much at all in Missouri because the paytables are horrible. I do play a lot of vp in both other states, Arkansas is fairly new to the game and offer paytables just as good as the big boys in Tunica, Ms.. I won't say vp is better or worse at either location, just different. My observation isn't based on just a few trips or small amount of hands played, fact is I've played millions of hands at both locations and other players have noticed the same thing as myself, "four cards to the flush off the draw", a hand that players should see about 1 every 36 times on average. I can play in Tunica and not even notice this type of hand but it sticks out in a big way for me in Arkansas. I've never really paid much attention to the hand in Tunica because 1 every 36 hands seems about right there, basicly that meens on average I should see about 23 of this type of hand per hour since I play close to 850 hands each hour I play. In Arkansas I will see far, far more of this hand (four cards to the flush off draw), I've checked this event a few times in a couple of different ways. Once I had a friend count how many "four to the flush off the draw" I recieved in 15 minutes, he counted 16. On another occasion I slowed my play down to crawl to keep up with it, in 100 hands I saw 9 of this hand. I also lag behind on the average for completing this hand to the flush (1 every 5 times), twice I've went to 13 before converting the first one to a flush. Another easy way to prove this event occurs is the fact that I have hit far more royal flushes and straight flushes in Arkansas than in Tunica, and see other players do the same thing which makes sense because this hand is so prevalent.
          I'm not knocking vp at either location, just curious about this event (four cards to the flush off the draw) and I wonder how this could occur if vp is truly "fair and random". Once again both locations are ClassII video poker, so how could this tendency exist?

[shadowman]

ko king,
 
If you are suspicious then maintain detailed records. It appears you have taken a couple of "shots" at doing this. However, it is easy to be fooled once you think you have seen a pattern. Your mind will start looking for it. The only way to avoid it is to keep exact records.
 
Once you keep records on this for something like 10-20 thousand hands you should be able to determine if your suspicions were correct. Prove it to yourself.
 
Here's one way to accomplish this. Bring a 3x5 index card with you. Keep track of 4Fl and Flushes hit for each hour. Mark them down on the index card. Compare the number to the total number of hands played. Do this for 10 trips.
 
I could keep the numbers in my head but there are counter devices you could purchase to make it easier. I know someone that used to place nickels/dimes/pennies in his shirt pocket each time an event he was tracking occurred. He'd remove them each hour, log the results and start again.

[BillyJoe]

Are vp machines fair and random, it might not take a lot to convince me they were if I could get the answer to this question.
I can play vp in 3 states,Missouri, Mississippi and Arkansas, all 3 states claim to have Class II vp. I don't play much at all in Missouri because the paytables are horrible. I do play a lot of vp in both other states, Arkansas is fairly new to the game and offer paytables just as good as the big boys in Tunica, Ms.. I won't say vp is better or worse at either location, just different. My observation isn't based on just a few trips or small amount of hands played, fact is I've played millions of hands at both locations and other players have noticed the same thing as myself, "four cards to the flush off the draw", a hand that players should see about 1 every 36 times on average. I can play in Tunica and not even notice this type of hand but it sticks out in a big way for me in Arkansas. I've never really paid much attention to the hand in Tunica because 1 every 36 hands seems about right there, basicly that meens on average I should see about 23 of this type of hand per hour since I play close to 850 hands each hour I play. In Arkansas I will see far, far more of this hand (four cards to the flush off draw), I've checked this event a few times in a couple of different ways. Once I had a friend count how many "four to the flush off the draw" I recieved in 15 minutes, he counted 16. On another occasion I slowed my play down to crawl to keep up with it, in 100 hands I saw 9 of this hand. I also lag behind on the average for completing this hand to the flush (1 every 5 times), twice I've went to 13 before converting the first one to a flush. Another easy way to prove this event occurs is the fact that I have hit far more royal flushes and straight flushes in Arkansas than in Tunica, and see other players do the same thing which makes sense because this hand is so prevalent.
          I'm not knocking vp at either location, just curious about this event (four cards to the flush off the draw) and I wonder how this could occur if vp is truly "fair and random". Once again both locations are ClassII video poker, so how could this tendency exist?
Unless I am horribly mistaken, Ko King, Missouri and Mississippi are CLASS III VP machines (ie Vegas-style), not Class II machines. I have played in Biloxi, Tunica and St Louis, and they were all Class III.  I cannot speak for Arkansas, since I have never played there.
 
My only encounter with a Class II VP machine was in Tampa at the Seminole casino. With a bingo game running at the top of each machine, the VP machines were set to pay as a slot, not as an RNG-generated deal and draw. As such, your payout was determined when you hit the Deal button, regardless of what cards you held. I used to mystify my friends when I would throw away a dealt Straight Flush, and the machine would give me another on the draw in a different suite, with the same payout, of course. They have since been given permission, and have converted to Class III machines.
 
You may have a situation where Arkansas is still Class II, but Missouri and Mississippi are Class III.  

[Frank Kneeland]

Are vp machines fair and random, it might not take a lot to convince me they were if I could get the answer to this question.
Well the good news is no one is trying to convince you of anything. If I succeed we'll end up with a simple spreadsheet you can enter your results into that will help with the calculations.If you use it, I hope it proves what you want it to and may the free food be with you! ~FK 

[Frank Kneeland]

ko king,
 
If you are suspicious then maintain detailed records. It appears you have taken a couple of "shots" at doing this. However, it is easy to be fooled once you think you have seen a pattern. Your mind will start looking for it. The only way to avoid it is to keep exact records.
 
Once you keep records on this for something like 10-20 thousand hands you should be able to determine if your suspicions were correct. Prove it to yourself.
 
Here's one way to accomplish this. Bring a 3x5 index card with you. Keep track of 4Fl and Flushes hit for each hour. Mark them down on the index card. Compare the number to the total number of hands played. Do this for 10 trips.
 
I could keep the numbers in my head but there are counter devices you could purchase to make it easier. I know someone that used to place nickels/dimes/pennies in his shirt pocket each time an event he was tracking occurred. He'd remove them each hour, log the results and start again.I hear via the grape vine that one can increase the validity of a statistical test by parsing the sample in discreet units. In other words, Ten 100 trial samples are better than one 1000 trail sample.Do you know what number of hands would be best for parsing VP hand samples for the greatest level of assurance in the least number of trials???Remember my ultimate goal is 99% assurance.

[Frank Kneeland]

I think dealt hands is a
good place to start. We need to eliminate the effects of personal
strategy. I see several ways to do this.1. Go off dealt paying hands as a first step.2. Also record 1 card draws like 4FL, 2-Pair, 4 to the straight etc...3.
Then compare made five-card hands like Full House that one gets drawing
to 2-Pair. (Not all your Full Houses, only the ones you get drawing 1)In this manner it wouldn't matter how people played or what strategy they used. Frequencies would remain constant. Does everyone agree?