Its tax time guess the W2G

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mrgrandpiano
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Re: Its tax time guess the W2G

Post by mrgrandpiano »





In answer to your various "offs": First off:  I play at about 1100 hands per hour myself in 7 hour stretches, so the 1200 hands per hour part is OK by me.Second off:  Just because a game has a negative expectation, doesn't make it a bad play.  Cash back could put it over.  There is no way to know that 98.9 % EV is bad.   Third off:  Not everyone likes to go to LV. Fourth off:  Shadowman's calculation was off by a factor of about 3 in the # of hands required.  I agree that 7.8 million hands wouldn't be possible, but the actual estimated # is 2.5, less if more $2 play is "sprinkled" in.  I'm not saying that the 640K W2Gs is correct, but it is certainly possible.


backsider
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Post by backsider »

Seven hour stretches at "1100 hands per hour"? You're dreamin buddy, and youd want to deduct at least two percent from the payback due to all the mistakes youd be making.

If casinos anywhere had less than 99% games that you could recalculate to being something over 100% that the local sharpies would now play, youd see LV sharpies there all the time. Instead, this w2g hog gets all the one dollar action playing faster than Charlie Daniels plays The Devil Went Down To Georgia.

If shadows figures were incorrect, hed be here cutting you to pieces for doubting his math. Rather, he chills.

$640k in w2gs for a dollar player even with some $5 sprinkled in is total BS.

edog743
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Post by edog743 »

I guess I was premature about the kinder gentler backsider.

backsider
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Post by backsider »

I hear you guys are premature about a LOT of things....

edog743
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Post by edog743 »

Who exactly are you guys?

backsider
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Post by backsider »

Oh no....are you going to start sniffling again? Id gallup over thee and hand you my nanky as a sign of support, but this chair is a real peace of work to handle.

mightwin
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Post by mightwin »

Post unable to migrate

backsider
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Post by backsider »

Probably, the difference is you know how very fast button pushing means mistakes galore, while some people and even Frank will never accept that such fast play actually hurts their game.

mrgrandpiano
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Post by mrgrandpiano »



To backsider:The 1100 hands/hour is correct because the points are recorded by the slot card.  That much is not in doubt, to me at least.  As far as errors go, I track my results and they are certainly not indicative of 2% loss due to player error.  That would already show up in the statistics.  Could be making as much as .8% error (3 standard deviations).  Won't know my error rate any better than that until more play, assuming the favorable situation lasts that long.   It seems to me that you use the argument that because you can't play a Chopin piano concerto, no one can.  I certainly don't play as fast as is humanly possible, but I don't make many mistakes as verified by my results and also my playing partner as occasionally we watch each other's play, to guard against playing too fast and making mistakes. You have to weigh the increased speed against the increased errors.  If you play 800 hands/hour error free at +2% EV, you can play at 1200/hour at 1.5% EV making errors and still be better off. 

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »




To backsider:  I certainly don't play as fast as is humanly possible, but I don't make many mistakes as verified by my results  
 I'm not sure I would agree that you can tell by your results what your error rate is.

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