Gambling with an Edge --- May 3

[brmcc74]

The "advantage" that the casinos have is the average persons bankroll. This bankroll Im speaking of includes Time and Money.   If an educated player had a few perfect strategies down pat, and also had an UNLIMITED bankroll, then can they only dream of being on the +% side of a life session. I agree that numbers dont lie, they cant. I do feel however that 99.9% of people are not properly equipped to achieve any type of posistive edge on any game, even though they believe that they are on the posistive side.  Theres way more involved than just finding the better pay table. Most people physically and emotionally couldnt handle what it takes to be always on the positive side of this. It is possible. If it were easy I would quit my job today and get started. No thanks, I know what it takes/. I will continue to seek out best games available, hold the best cards, and enjoy myself with no expectations other than entertainment and hope the RNG is kind.

[BillyJoe]

What we have is people saying:

1) The casinos always win because they have the advantage.

2) Even if a player only plays when HE has the advantage, the casino will still win.

3) Even if a casino paid 1.1:1 on a coin toss, they would still have the advantage and still win because they're not stupid.

Not quite, QQ. The casino benefits from players who do not play a 'perfect' strategy on their game of choice, so right out of the gate, they have an advantage. That small number of players who do play a correct strategy on a game with a lifetime positive return will benefit from that in the LONG term, having to endure poor returns in the short term.
So, please, name for me a casino game where the player has an advantage for short term play, and the casino will pay a fair return based on the true odds of that winning hand or dice roll. I would love to specialize..

[Eduardo]

Define "short term play" billyjoe? You seem to play a lot. Add all your sessions together that you have ever played. How many times did you play a pay table that got 5 or 10 coins less on certain wins than a positive game? Now, credit yourself with those 5 or 10 coins for every single full house you've ever hit. Would you have won more with the exact same cards? Would your win % have increased? That's what it's all about, and getting that win % over 100% over time is advantage play. And yes it assumes one if capable of playing perfectly. Even if you are not we still shouldn't throw the whole thing out. Short term really doesn't mean anything when it comes to having an advantage. If you want a good chance at winning in the short term, then play a progressive betting strategy. You will win more sessions. But your losing ones will compensate very nicely with debt if that's the only goal, winning more sessions. Just like doubling your bet every time on a roulette table. Pay tables and holds are the only thing you can control, not luck. And no matter how you play, what matters is your overall play, not your play on a single day. Your good days and bad days will always happen. Would you prefer to have:A) 9 days winning $10,000/day and one day losing $100,000 (you won 90% of your short term sessions) or B) 4 days winning $6000/day and 6 days losing $3900/day? (you won 40% of your short term sessions)

[shadowman]

Eduardo has it right.
 
BTW billyjoe, you stated advantage players as "having to endure poor returns in the short term", but, how could anyone ever win if even those playing the best machines always lost in the short term? Since all of our long term play is broken up into short term sessions, it appears you are claiming no one ever wins.
 
I don't think this is what you meant, but that is how it came out. The fact is the return of a game is reflected in every hand that is played. There are VP players out there who got RFs in their first ever session (my wife included).

[Quad Deuces]

So, please, name for me a casino game where the player has an advantage for short term play, and the casino will pay a fair return based on the true odds of that winning hand or dice roll. I would love to specialize.. I take that to mean you want me to name a game where the player is GUARANTEED TO WALK AWAY A WINNER in the short term.  Such a game does not exist and you know it.  Nor did I see anyone here - me included - say that such a game did exist.ETA: As Bob likes to say: if you don't want any variance, play the change machine.Full Pay Deuces Wild pays 1.0076:1 if you hold the right cards.  If you'd like to know the exact locations of such machines or how to identify them, please let me know. :PEven your craps odds example is subject to the condition of "not winning this time" even though you acknowledge that the player is even with the house on the odds portion of the bet.

[backsider]

No AP thinks they will win every session. That's what's known as a strawman. However, given the edge each and every time they play they do believe that they have a much higher probability of success than a player who does not have an edge (probably about 99+% chance of success each year given a 103% return ).
 
Now, your claim should hold true for the casino as well. Even though they typically have a 103% advantage or better they should be expected to lose? Is that what you think?

Youd be a little more convincing if you didnt have to twist words to make even yourself believe in them.

Ive heard the "theory" about always calculating out that youre playing in some edge situation, but it doesnt hold water. Every time you go in to play one of those fancy promotions or sit at a machine that "promises an advantage for the player" over who knows how long IF the player makes no mistakes, its its own singular event. You string them together to make it line up with your theory, but truth doesnt work like that.

Casinos otoh always have the advantage. They could put in 110% paytables and the aps of the world would still see red. Or, as Bob Dancer would view it, they would see naked women walking the beach holding up our royal flush cards.

[backsider]

Eduardo, think real. No one needs a better paytable to win, and better paytables dont guarantee aps anything other than another whole wasted day chasing the math.

Fart to pretending extra FH or flush credits will turn a session. We all play until its all gone and a few extra credits dont mean beans. Thats whats real. So youll say what if a royal were hit with "all those precious extra credits"? Ill hand you this: Im a peenie dollar player mostly, and I hit a $20k powerhouse deal on a "poor paytable only losers play" to quote the sharpies here. So how long will it take me before I start wishing I were playing sharpie paytables instead of hitting that big winner? Never, thats how long, and you all know it. Maybe problem players who cant stay away from the machines might say different, but theyve got a whole nother set of issues to work out.

I continue to be right. Even new2vp is afraid to argue the point.

[Eduardo]

[Quad Deuces]

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[faygo]

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