Draw to 3 Dealt Aces Not Random?

[xfile1971]

I don't want to drag this out into a huge argument.  I was simply sharing something I have experienced over the past decade involving literally dozens upon dozens of gambling trips (each involving multiple casinos).  I was curious if anybody had ever noticed this phenomenon or if anybody actually kept detailed playing statistics other than total number of hands and overall 4OAKs or Royals.I tried to keep it as professional as possible by telling you the ONE pattern I had noticed.  I didn't complain and say "I lost $400 in a quarter machine and didn't hit a four of a kind so it must be rigged" or "I held four toward a Royal on a hundred play and didn't get one so it must be rigged."  It was in regards to something very specific.backsider, thank you for your kind words.  It gave me a good laugh so I guess those posts were not completely in vain.billyjoe, I would LOVE to see your stats if you are able to keep any regarding dealt Aces on premium, multi-hand games. I would actually be super happy if a few people paid attention and honestly claimed that they drew roughly the same number of Aces as they did the suited 4s.  (It would mean I have been extremely unlucky for over 10 years but it at least would give me hope!) Finally, I am sooo glad that Quad Deuces provided statistics proving to me that there could not possibly be any non-randomness in DDB or TDB games.  Wait... they didn't?  I guess it's easier to call it preposterous.  After all, there has NEVER been rigged video poker machines or non-random IGT machines in the history of gambling, right?  Oh wait... there has actually been BOTH.  If you don't believe me, you might want to surf this nifty little thing called the internet and research it!I realize this is a really long post but I did have one last very slightly off-topic question.  Even though my father was a statistician, I don't have the mathematical genius that he possessed.  Could anybody tell me what percentage of 4OAKs should a person get holding 3 cards, or 2 cards, or just 1 card, etc?  In other words, for every 100 4OAKs a person gets, how many should be from just holding a pair?  I know I get a lot more holding just 2 cards than 3 cards but I assume you are supposed to because you get a lot more dealt pairs than dealt 3 of a kinds.  Thanks to anyone who can answer that!

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=xfile1971]My trip was in Las Vegas and all machines involved were normal IGT machines.

It was a long trip and I played at many casinos: Venetian, Cosmopolitan, Aria, Bally's, Paris, Planet Hollywood, M Resort, Sunset Station and Red Rock.

All games were Double Bonus, DDB or TDB.  No Jacks or Better, Bonus or Deuces Wild.  (I enjoy playing more volatile games.)

For the person who commented their play regarding Deuces Wild,  I don't mind anybody disagreeing with me.  Obviously, the concept of machines being non-random in any fashion is usually considered conspiracy theory.  HOWEVER, I don't need snotty comments regarding my statements being incorrect because you drew deuces while playing Deuces Wild.  If you knew how to read, you would know I was not discussing that game AT ALL.  Thanks.

Finally, as you can tell by the casinos I play at and the games involved, I am NOT someone who only plays games with an EV of 99 percent or higher.  I know many of you are exceptionally intelligent and play only the best games available such as Full Pay Jacks or Better or Full Pay Deuces Wild.  I expect about a 97% payback on the games I play and simply look at gambling as enjoyment and not a money-maker.

I was inquiring because I assume most of you play single hand poker and I have not noticed any strange patterns on single hand machines but I thought maybe a few people enjoy multi-hand machines and it was just something that has been happening to me for years and years and I finally had the nerve to post something.  Sorry if I upset anybody.

Interesting, XFile. I, too, seem to gravitate to the more volatile games, like TDB, and I do play a lot of multi-line. I am leaving for Vegas tomorrow, and in fact, will be staying at Aria for part of the time, with the remainder at Caesars. As such, my play while in Vegas (I just play on the Strip, though) will certainly be exposed to some machines that may have exhibited what you have observed. I am gonna try and look for that pattern, and report back when I return. [/QUOTE]
OK XFile, I am back from Vegas. Played VP mostly at Aria and Caesars, with a little at Mirage and Bellagio. I play TDB, three and five way most of the time. I took special note if I was dealt three Aces, and can honestly say that I did not see one instance where a Four in the suit required for the dealt quad was present.
BUT......
I did notice that, on other trip deals, the Four in the suit required for the dealt quad was present. Sorry, no specific stats, and certainly not every time, but more often than I thought I would see it.
Interesting....

[gregorio]

Hi xfile. I also play multi-hand vp, mostly 10-play ddb. I often notice certain patterns that most of the "senior members" here either call "selective memory" or they simply accuse me of being the proponent of the "conspiracy theory"! I've been playing recreational VP for almost 20 years now and there is no doubt in my mind that with new technology came "new randomness". Here are my new examples. On my recent trip to Vegas ( the truth is I do consider Vegas the most "fair") I held 1 high card and received RF twice. In my previous 20 years of playing VP it has happened to me twice, the last time at least 10 years ago. One other curious "randomness" happened: I held 4 cards to flush and received an unusually high 6 flushes: ALL WITH 8 OF HEARTS! I'd like to ask our resident math wizards what are the chances of that? There are certainly many curious "coincidences" that happen now while playing VP. I did not look for the 4 of needed suit phenomenon, however, I did notice when holding 2 Aces the third Ace will show up with a kicker a lot more often then without. Perhaps it's not as significant as what you noticed, but............  I will certainly keep an eye on that 4 next time I am in Vegas in September.  On the positive note, I did get a dealt 4aces  w/a kicker on the same trip in May for quite a substantial hand pay, so I can't complain too much.  Good luck. 

[backsider]

Youre part of what the majority feels is the case Greg, myself included.

We have a saying posted around here on the base: "Nothing is random, and everything has reason" Were still trying to figure it out, but it sure seems to makes sense when it comes to playing video poker!

[Quad Deuces]

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[backsider]

Wouldn't the probability of drawing the same card out of 47 six times in a row be (1/47)^6 ??  Or
          <!--
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   -->0.0000000000928? This example would be a little bit higher probability since it was 6 times out of 10(?) (I have no clue how to calculate that (if I'm even right about 6 out of 6))...That would have been way worthy of a photo.


You would think so, deuces. But even with a photo signed by the Governor, there is a poster here who would most probably claim it was planned way in advance and wasnt real.

Personally, if something makes sense at all, I tend to believe what a player says.

[BillyJoe]

I guess that I have played enough VP over the years to know that if a hand/draw is possible, no matter how improbable, it can happen. So, seeing a particular hand/draw at any time, even several in a row, only means that the particular hand/draw is in there. It is always interesting to speculate about 'patterns', but it does not prove anything regarding randomness.  Now, a signed "poster" of our two favorite Forum "posters" - THAT is highly improbable, but yet, not impossible.

[spxChrome]

I didn't read every post but I will say my longest drought with being dealt trip Aces and not drawing the 4th was 96 times and 104.  And for me it seemed everytime I was always missing the Ace of Diamonds for some reason.  But I am gonna look out for 4's now lol.

[backsider]

I would definitely be glad to participate in that, but the other guy, uh, I think he wont be interested because itll end up destroying his theory and would put him in quite a predicament, wouldnt it. Oh wait a minute, hes got that loophole covered, and it effectively eradicates my asking to meet anyone else from here for dinner too. I forgot about how backsider #1 found a wheelchair-bound backsider #2 here at Nellis, in the event that there would be a group or multiple party meet-up someday. I, as the ringer, could safely send this AF fellow wheeling around town making all the appearances necessary with forum folk just to complete the deception.

Whos with me: shadowman should write a novel.

wait, what am I talking about? shadow says he knows theres Army regulations that doesnt allow the disabled to work as analysts in MI as either uniformed GIs or contracted civilians. He should know, right, hes an AP by golly! Only he says hes read these pretend govt. rules that he cant produce. Uh-oh. But that means his backsider #2 doesnt exist either..only here I am, live and at Nellis. Phew!

[tigertab]

I so agree with your last line, because it DOES get me thinking !