Over betting your bank roll for a large advantage

[ACVPchamp]

I haven't run any VPFW simulations because I don't know how many games this session is expected to be.I am assuming the $51000 figure billiejoe came up with is the amount needed to play this game forever with a 5% risk of ruin.  Playing one promotion at a denomination normally outside of your bankroll and switching to the higher denomination permanently are two different things.I don't see any way to tell VPFW to take comps into account when calculating short term bankroll.  But, according to VPFW, you would be able to play about 1743 games before you reached a 5% risk of losing all 1000 credits.  At that same point, you would have a 5.8% chance of having doubled your 1000 credits and walked away.  This is not taking the .4% nor the extra >= 1% for the $5-$1000 extra free play into account.Wolf Video Poker says you need an $11,500 bankroll to play this game (with 1.4% in cashback+comps) for 1,000,000 rounds with a 5% risk of ruin.  That's the calculation if you experience -3 standard deviations which it gives a 2.14% likelihood.OP are you going to hammer this promotion for tens of thousands of hands as long as it lasts or hit it for X many hours/games then quit?I'd play the hell out of it.  Works out to about $37/hour at 101.06%.If you do play it, be sure to log all the varying awards so you can get a better idea of the average.  Ask others what they received, etc for a bigger sample set.




I really appreciate you running these numbers for me. When referencing wolf VP with the 11k bankroll, are you still talking about a $5 denom?

[BillyJoe]

I appreciate all the input from everyone. I am looking at this as a short term play. I will start with 1 6-8hour session/trip and see how it goes and evaluate from there as to if i would like to keep playing at this advantage. Everytime I walk in to a casino I am fully prepared to walk out without a dollar in my pocket. So I will not be "devastated" to go bust.

Hopefully the promo is still running as it was last time I was there and they haven't increased the ammount of coin in required for a slot dollar bonus. I am planning on documenting my play and bonuses. I will report back here for the people that are interested in what my EV ends up to be.

What intrigues me about this is, I will receive a minimum of a %1 advantage with the promo. It could only go higher from there, it's very possible I will receive a %2-3% advance or even more.
Well, if you get there, and it is still going on, then maybe it is not as good as it sounds, or the casino is not paying attention. Kinda doesn't pass the 'smell' test for me to be a real bonanza. But I wish you the best of luck..

[Quad Deuces]

I really appreciate you running these numbers for me. When referencing wolf VP with the 11k bankroll, are you still talking about a $5 denom?No.  I ran it as dollars as you never specified a denomination.  So if you're talking about $5 x 5 take $11K and multiply it by 5.  $55K.My $37/hour figure was for $1.  at $5 it's $185, providing you have the 'roll.  I know I don't.  Not at $5.

[ACVPchamp]

[QUOTE=ACVPchamp]
I really appreciate you running these numbers for me. When referencing wolf VP with the 11k bankroll, are you still talking about a $5 denom?No.  I ran it as dollars as you never specified a denomination.  So if you're talking about $5 x 5 take $11K and multiply it by 5.  $55K.My $37/hour figure was for $1.  at $5 it's $185, providing you have the 'roll.  I know I don't.  Not at $5.[/QUOTE]

That's what I thought. I was just confused because you didn't specify and the previous example given was on a $5 denomination.