Beginners Strategy

[shadowman]

 All I can say is that I am humbled by your statement.  And, to be honest, maybe somewhat confused.  The last time I looked, the casinos are not set up to be consistently beat out of real money over a relatively short period of time. That is why the comps need to be part of the overall equation.  

 
Casinos, in general, watch all their machines and remove ones that don't return a profit. I think that is pretty well accepted. However, that doesn't mean they won't put in a small number that can be beat by smart players. The casino where I play has a total of 14 beatable machines out of an inventory of thousands of slots and VP machines. I've walked into the casino at busy times and often only a couple of those machines are being played.
 
In addition, the total number of smart players is very small. So, even the games that can be beat usually are still profitable, just not as much as other machines. Typical players (99%+) use strategies that return from 2-10% below the expected return. This is the reason casinos can put in games with positive ERs and still make a profit.
 
Gambling is somewhat like a drive in hilly country. You go up and down but may not change the altitude overall. Positive ER machines are just set at a slightly higher altitude so even they aren't beat every time.

[jim18]

I would like to play ultimate x video poker at the 10 cent level.  Can anyone tell me how to calculate the size of bankroll that I need to continue playing this game for 10 hours or longer?

[Quad Deuces]

I don't know that game or how to calculate it, but those who do will need at least the VP variant (Jacks or Better, Double-Double Bonus, etc) you will be playing, the number of lines, and the paytable.

[jim18]

those are all good points. I will be playing all of the games that Ultimate X offers.  I will try playing 10 hands at a time.  Perhaps the average of the pay tables will be 98% more or less. I was hoping that there was a website that I could go to where I get to plug in the variable numbers in a "what if" manner.

[shadowman]

The big thing tht determines the length of time is the variance of the games involved. Since you stated you would many different games, the answer is unknown.
 
However, playing 10-play at the ten cent level means you will be playing $10/hand. If it were me I and I want a 95% chance of making the 10 hours then I would want around $8-10K.

[jim18]

Thanks for your answer.  While I am sure that your math is correct, I am sort of lost as to why I would walk into a casino with 8-10 thousand dollars and play a game where a royal flush would pay me 400 dollars.  I would either have to hit multiple RF or get a bonus.  It just seems to be an almost impossible task.  Too much risk with too little reward! Perhaps the question that I should ask is this.  If I want to play for 10 hours and I have a bankroll of 2,000 dollars, how do I calculate which games I can play, and at what demonination I can play? From prior experience I can say that I played multi strike at the 5 cent level for more than 10 hours on a bank roll of 900 dollars, before I went broke.  B ut this game in this demonination is not available at the casino that I will be staying at next month.     

[shadowman]

With ultimate x the variance is sky high. It is mostly the game that drives the bankroll so high. Of course, you could hit a dealt RF right after a dealt FH and make over 100x more than $400.

You could probably play 10-play 9/6 JOB with a bankroll of less than $1000

[jim18]

I think I can find 10 play job with 9/6 pay table, so at least there is some game to play. Without making this overly complicated, I think the following calculation might be helpful, as a starting point. Using single play job game as representing the base volitility there must be some easy to apply formula to calculate how many dollars I need to invest, if playing this game for 10 hours.  From there, the volitity for 10 play job might mean that I need a 50% larger bank roll. Then from there the volitility of playing each game from job to TDB might require 100% more bankroll. So, if I start with $1000 for playing 10 play job, can I say that if I play all games equally within the 10 play format, that I need a bankroll of $2,000? When you made your estimate of $1,000 was that based on me playing one dollar per credit?  At 25 cents per credit, the pay table will fall roughtly 2%. Which is worse?  to play a game with not enough bankroll, or to play a game with a lower pay schedule and a reasonable bankroll? If I play STP doesn't that game return a higher pay back due to the bonus feature?  Or does this feature increase volitility, thereby forcing me to have a larger bankroll?

[BillyJoe]

I think I can find 10 play job with 9/6 pay table, so at least there is some game to play.
 
Without making this overly complicated, I think the following calculation might be helpful, as a starting point.
 
Using single play job game as representing the base volatility there must be some easy to apply formula to calculate how many dollars I need to invest, if playing this game for 10 hours.  From there, the volatility for 10 play job might mean that I need a 50% larger bank roll.
 
Then from there the volatility of playing each game from job to TDB might require 100% more bankroll.
 
So, if I start with $1000 for playing 10 play job, can I say that if I play all games equally within the 10 play format, that I need a bankroll of $2,000?
 
When you made your estimate of $1,000 was that based on me playing one dollar per credit?  At 25 cents per credit, the pay table will fall roughly 2%.
 
Which is worse?  to play a game with not enough bankroll, or to play a game with a lower pay schedule and a reasonable bankroll?
 
If I play STP doesn't that game return a higher pay back due to the bonus feature?  Or does this feature increase volatility, thereby forcing me to have a larger bankroll?
Ahh, Jim, such great questions that you raise. I always try and remember that, if there is a game on the casino floor, it is profitable for the casino in the long term. That does not mean that you cannot be successful in the short run. Having stop points, both on winning and losing, I believe is the key to success in VP.
 
So, if you want to grind it out with a low bankroll, a low volatility game like JOB is probably for you. If you want to take a run at higher volatility games, you better have a bankroll to survive the dips, because they will be there. Every game will bust you if you keep playing it with no  'walk away' point. 

[onemoretry]

 When you made your estimate of $1,000 was that based on me playing one dollar per credit?  At 25 cents per credit, the pay table will fall roughtly 2%. 
 I don't understand this statement at all.  Why, if the pay table is the same, does playing for quarters rather than dollars, affect the return?  Or, are you saying the paytable for quarters is not the same? I have played some 10 line 25c JOB.  Based on my experience at it, I think a bankroll of $1000 isn't really enough to meet your 10 hours of play target.  It is very easy, in that format, to be down more than a royal in less than two hours.