A Bob Dancer Rule / Gold Coast

[Quad Deuces]

Bob just posted a new column on LVA.  It talks about spinning a wheel for a drawing prize at Gold Coast.  He says:[quote]This month (August 2012), the Gold Coast is having virtually the same
promotion. I played a lot the first week of the month (basically my
entire month's worth of play) but I wasn't called on stage for the
drawing....Were I called (I wasn't and I'm done for the month)[/quote]Can you please explain, with drawings every Saturday, 4X points on Fridays, and 7X points on Sundays and the drawing drum being emptied every week why you're done for the month?  What was special about the first week that's not still true?Top end mailer coin-in already reached and it's just not worth it for the 2000 tickets per week you can earn on the multiplier days requiring three visits to play?(If you know what the various mailer levels at Gold Coast are, do you care to share?)

[BobDancer]

Yes I play $10,000 coin-in on the days you mentioned (that's the maximum for the multiplier there) which gives me 1000 tickets each day but far more important is playing $10,000 on Tuesday and Thursday where I only get only a 3x multiplier (I have Emerald status. Lower tiers get either 2x or 1x on the same days)  but 10,000 tickets each day. Yes a 7x day earns you $40 more than a 3x day if you're playing $10,000 in coin-in, but an extra 9,000 drawing tickets is likely worth $300 or so (which is an educated wild-ass guess based on my experience. I don't have any hard numbers to share with you on the subject.) Having 25000 entries the first week gives me a decent shot to be called (didn't work this time.)  If I were to wait for week 4, I feel I need 60,000 entries to give me the same shot because there will be a lot more tickets in the barrel. I'm going to be out of town much of August, so I'm done playing at the Gold Coast for the month. I'll probably play a few more multiplier days but nowhere near enough to get me enough tickets to have a good chance at the drawing. If my perceived equity in a drawing isn't $200 or more, I rarely even show up. There will always be a bunch of people with 32 tickets versus my 32,000, and sometimes one of them win and shout out the magic (albeit naive) strategy of "it only takes one ticket to win," but that strategy isn't for me. My time is worth more than that.  Although the 2000 tickets a week mentioned by QD imply an equity of maybe $60 in week1 or $20 in week 4 to show up at the drawings, that is a waste of time for me. But if that's the way you want to spend your time, good luck to you. Since I knew I was going to be out of town, I played enough during the first week to meet my "usual" level of play there. I knew I was only going to play one drawing there in August so I planned accordingly. I can never get enough tickets so that I'm guaranteed to be chosen. But I try to play so I have a decent shot. At the Palms, for example, each week is a brand new contest with no carryover tickets from before. I'll pick a different week in the month to play heavily there. I only have so much time to spend doing this so I try to invest that time wisely. "Picking my spots" is part of what I do I'll pick a week in September when I want to enter the drawing and play a lot for that drawing. If that doesn't work, I'll play one week in October, etc. And when I win more than $1000 in a promotion there, I take the next three months off. They do NOT want the same winners every week at the Gold Coast and have kicked out players who've played enough to get called regularly. Some of you are low enough profile that you can win several times before you get on their radar, but I'm already squarely in their sights. I have no inside knowledge of Coast mailers --- other than the slot director at Sam's Town told me that there were 22 separate mailer categories there. It depends on number of trips, win-loss, theoretical on the games you play, etc. Coin-in itself doesn't appear to have much of an impact on the mailers there. I've already shared more with you than most pros would on this subject. Whenever I share what I'm doing it lowers my expected value because other people make their own adjustments based on what I'm doing.  Invariably people want to know additional stuff. Not this time. I'm through posting on this thread. Maybe in another 4 - 6 months I'll post some more stuff.  Bob

[Quad Deuces]

Thanks, Bob.  I had already found the 10X ticket days since posting last night.I had no idea how much or how little you'd be willing to share.  The "done for the month" commentary in the story just didn't make sense so I played the #1 casino rule and asked.  Sorry to put you on the spot.  I knew I wouldn't be able to make it to Sam's Town today to ask you personally.As always, thanks for sharing. Here's some info for you in return. The drawing drum is emptied each week for this one.[quote]14. All virtual entries are removed from the virtual drawing drum after each drawing day.[/quote]It's nice to know you're not playing this week.  +EV for me.

[BillyJoe]

There will always be a bunch of people with 32 tickets versus my 32,000, and sometimes one of them win and shout out the magic (albeit naive) strategy of "it only takes one ticket to win,"  
But Bob, it really DOES only take one ticket to win. If the drum is truly random, that one ticket has the same chance as any one of your tickets.

[Eduardo]

It is only naive as a "strategy."  I don't think that's how 99% of the people in the drawing see it, so "it only takes one ticket to win" is very true. How many people in a raffle really have an advantage player mindset? Sure, the more tickets the better... but I don't know of anyone who has entered a raffle with the idea that profit margins have been tilted in their favor... until this thread.   

[onemoretry]

I can't fathom why, even though it "takes only one ticket to win", people seem unwilling to acknowledge that if you have 25000 of those chances, you are a lot more likely to have one drawn.

[Eduardo]

What people? You mean morons?

[BillyJoe]

I can't fathom why, even though it "takes only one ticket to win", people seem unwilling to acknowledge that if you have 25000 of those chances, you are a lot more likely to have one drawn.
Well, fathom away then, because if you only have one drawing, and then all of your entries are discarded, whatever "advantage" you believe that you had evaporates with the drawing of one of your non-tickets. Doing $10k a day coin in over the course of a week to POSSIBLY win a $2000 drawing prize somehow does not seem all that attractive. Playing $1 TDB with that coin-in, where there are $2000 and $4000 payouts, even without hitting an RF, would get you there sooner, IMO. I must be one of those 'people'.  
 
With a $312M jackpot Wednesday night, how many Powerball tickets do you have to buy to get an 'advantage" ?  

[darcyemb]

if you only have one drawing, and then all of your entries are discarded, whatever advantage you believe that you had evaporates with the drawing of one of your non-tickets. 
Well, yes. But, for that particular drawing, do you not think that a person with 25000 entries had a better chance of having a winner? 

[darcyemb]

Whoops! I didn't know I was signed in on my wife's account. Previous post was mine.