Progressives vs Non-Progessive Machines

[Burtwithau]

I have played VP for a number of years but I was wondering if it was possible to figure out all of the progressive payouts for a given machine on the spot (i.e. total return).  I play locally at machines that do not have a progressive but I go twice a year to Vegas and play almost exclusively at the California.  Some of their dollar DDB machines have progressives for royals, AWAKs, AWOKs and 2-4's WKs.  These are usually 8-5 machines but the progressives sometimes soar upwards of 100% more than the base rate, especially the royals.  I do not have a smart phone so I can't download any apps for this.On machines that only have a royal progressive I know that it would need to be up to about $7900 to make up for the hit from 9-6 to 8-5.  I get rooms, food and slot play comped so I am not hurting in that department but I would like to tighten my play a bit.  All things being equal I usually look for a straight DDB 9-6 machine in .25, .50 or $1.00 denoms.  I don't play the multi-game machines as I haven't had luck with the extra hands (read as luck not even close to what would be statistically expected).

[JIMDUECE`SWILD]

Welcome to the forum Burtwithau. Frank Kneeland wrote a book on progressive videopoker Here's the website  www.progressivevp.com  .

[Burtwithau]

Thanks Jim for the link!  I know the other names on his site but I have never heard of Frank Kneeland.

[New2vp]

Burt, I don't know how easy it is for you to make calculations on the fly, but you can estimate the return on a 4-way progressive 8-5 DDB roughly by adding 0.1% (a tenth of a per cent) for each additional:200 Coins on the Royal,  80 Coins on the AWAK,  35 Coins on the AWOK, or  30 Coins on the 2-4 WKabove the reset values.Not exact, but not too bad either.

[Burtwithau]

Thanks so much New2vp!  I can put this on a card and put it in my wallet when I go to LV in January.  I can do the math on the spot so I think I'm good at this point.  The highest progressive on the royal I have seen (at the Cal) was 9700+ on the dollar and 2700+ on the quarter.  I'm sure others have seen higher. 

[OTABILL]

Burt, I don't know how easy it is for you to make calculations on the fly, but you can estimate the return on a 4-way progressive 8-5 DDB roughly by adding 0.1% (a tenth of a per cent) for each additional:200 Coins on the Royal,  80 Coins on the AWAK,  35 Coins on the AWOK, or  30 Coins on the 2-4 WKabove the reset values.Not exact, but not too bad either.


 Thanks New2VP for the calculations. The quarter DDB progressive we play has an abysmal base paytable of 7-5. However, it is also a 5-way progressive adding 2,3,4 WOK to the four you noted above. What coin amount would add 0.1% to this progressive? I might add that often 2 or more of the progressives on this bank are significantly above reset value. For example, AWAK can be over $600 while 2-4 WAK above $300. Thus while we think the percentage payback is comparable to a non-progressive DDB with a better paytable such as 8-5 or more, its really hard to compare. Just wondering what might attract an AP.

[New2vp]

Thanks New2VP for the calculations. The quarter DDB progressive we play has an abysmal base paytable of 7-5. However, it is also a 5-way progressive adding 2,3,4 WOK to the four you noted above. What coin amount would add 0.1% to this progressive? I might add that often 2 or more of the progressives on this bank are significantly above reset value. For example, AWAK can be over $600 while 2-4 WAK above $300. Thus while we think the percentage payback is comparable to a non-progressive DDB with a better paytable such as 8-5 or more, its really hard to compare. Just wondering what might attract an AP.There is not much difference from a strategy perspective between a 7-5 and an 8-5 DDB.  The lower payout on the full house simply starts you off another 1.08% lower in EV.  Thus, there is no appreciable difference in the additional coins for each 0.1% in the estimation for a 7-5 machine.  The numbers for the first 4 meters remain at:200 Coins on the Royal,         (198.2)  80 Coins on the AWAK,       (  81.2)  35 Coins on the AWOK, or   (  34.1)  30 Coins on the 2-4 WK       (  28.8)above the reset values.We can add the following for the 5th meter for a 0.1% rise in EV:  12.5 Coins on the 2-4 WOK  ( 12.66)I put more exact figures in parentheses; I have rounded them for easier estimation in the casino.  You might want to think about using 25 coins for a 0.2% rise on the 5th meter if fractions are too bothersome.  Also, these figures presume that one would simply use the same strategy as at reset.  If you play a more sophisticated strategy, the EV will rise at a somewhat higher rate.

Just wondering what might attract an AP.Frank Kneeland hasn't posted here in a while, but I think the answer that he might give would be that the AP would have to think there was a reasonable possibility for high meter amounts in the first place or one wouldn't bother checking the machine.  This can be estimated by how quickly the meters rose on each play.  Then, with rapid enough meter rise, an AP would wait for one or more of the meters to rise to eclipse some pre-chosen EV, high enough over 100%, considering comps.  This is an oversimplification since other nearby plays would need to be evaluated to see if this one was worth the time.  

[OTABILL]

[QUOTE=OTABILL]Thanks New2VP for the calculations. The quarter DDB progressive we play has an abysmal base paytable of 7-5. However, it is also a 5-way progressive adding 2,3,4 WOK to the four you noted above. What coin amount would add 0.1% to this progressive? I might add that often 2 or more of the progressives on this bank are significantly above reset value. For example, AWAK can be over $600 while 2-4 WAK above $300. Thus while we think the percentage payback is comparable to a non-progressive DDB with a better paytable such as 8-5 or more, its really hard to compare. Just wondering what might attract an AP.There is not much difference from a strategy perspective between a 7-5 and an 8-5 DDB.  The lower payout on the full house simply starts you off another 1.08% lower in EV.  Thus, there is no appreciable difference in the additional coins for each 0.1% in the estimation for a 7-5 machine.  The numbers for the first 4 meters remain at:200 Coins on the Royal,         (198.2)  80 Coins on the AWAK,       (  81.2)  35 Coins on the AWOK, or   (  34.1)  30 Coins on the 2-4 WK       (  28.8)above the reset values.We can add the following for the 5th meter for a 0.1% rise in EV:  12.5 Coins on the 2-4 WOK  ( 12.66)I put more exact figures in parentheses; I have rounded them for easier estimation in the casino.  You might want to think about using 25 coins for a 0.2% rise on the 5th meter if fractions are too bothersome.  Also, these figures presume that one would simply use the same strategy as at reset.  If you play a more sophisticated strategy, the EV will rise at a somewhat higher rate.
[/QUOTE]
 Thanks again for your calculations. They will certainly help me determine the EV when I sit down. These are dynamic machines so when a bonus hits and resets, the EV obviously diminishes for that progressive while the others are still building. Next time we sit down at this particular progressive bank, I'll write down the progressive amounts and figure out what is the EV above the base of 95.71%. I might add that I have seen the AWAK progressive reach $1000, the royal $1800, AWOK over $300, 2-4 WAK over $300, and even 2-4 WOK $135 -- not at the same time but there are moments when all are elevated. With free play and gifts, there are times, though not often, I believe these machines can reach a positive EV.

[Burtwithau]

I was able to put your numbers to the test on my recent Vegas trip.  One dollar bank (DDB) had a combined EV over 100%.  I only hit 4 4OAKs and they were all the plain jane variety so I didn't get a progressive hit.  Luckily, I did much better on the .50 and .25 denom machines.  Thanks again New2vp.

[New2vp]

It's always fun to win.  Happy to help.