How much do we still not know?

[shadowman]

Shadowman can't help but notice how much you seem to know about the game and wonder how bad the play would have to be before you even considered the possiblity that certain games not be up to par.  Let's say you played around 150K hands of DDB vp, what numbers would lead you to think something may not be right? How few times  Aces w/kicker, Quad Aces, 2's,3's and 4's w/kicker and quad 2,3 and 4's would it take for you to begin to wonder?


 
With DDB the frequencies of the premium hands are quite low. Over 16K hands for AWAK. That means you should only average 9 in 150K hands. It wouldn't be unusual to have less than half that amount. And, having none is possible.
 
I once went 13 cycles without a wild royal playing deuces in various casinos. I also went 18 cycles without a quad or quickquad playing QQs right here at vp.com. These are extreme cases but these are going to happen to someone. Of course, the opposite also happens and you see people reporting fantastic trips where they hit jackpot after jackpot. That is the nature of the beast. And, DDB is one of the wildest beasts in the casino.

[ko king]

[QUOTE=ko king]Shadowman can't help but notice how much you seem to know about the game and wonder how bad the play would have to be before you even considered the possiblity that certain games not be up to par.  Let's say you played around 150K hands of DDB vp, what numbers would lead you to think something may not be right? How few times  Aces w/kicker, Quad Aces, 2's,3's and 4's w/kicker and quad 2,3 and 4's would it take for you to begin to wonder?


 
With DDB the frequencies of the premium hands are quite low. Over 16K hands for AWAK. That means you should only average 9 in 150K hands. It wouldn't be unusual to have less than half that amount. And, having none is possible.
 
I once went 13 cycles without a wild royal playing deuces in various casinos. I also went 18 cycles without a quad or quickquad playing QQs right here at vp.com. These are extreme cases but these are going to happen to someone. Of course, the opposite also happens and you see people reporting fantastic trips where they hit jackpot after jackpot. That is the nature of the beast. And, DDB is one of the wildest beasts in the casino.[/QUOTE]



I'm sure you're right about the possibilities when it comes to playing DDB. I experienced a couple of the bad streaks over the years but I always came roaring back. The worst streak I can remember having was playing DDB at Harrah's for about 35K hands and not hitting a single premium hand but like I said I popped out of it and things leveled out. I do however become more than a little suspicious when the bad streak seems to the norm and really never ends. When you play around 600K hands of DDB over a period of a few years at one casino and you lag behind the averages for every premium hand except the royal flush by around half the expected numbers it makes me wonder. I'm with you though when it comes to DDB being a beast but it's a bit far fetched in my mind to think that a player could play that many hands and come up missing badly on Aces w/K, Aces, 2's 3's 4's w/K and quad 2's 3's 4's year end and year out. I'm not pressing you to admit the possibilty that all vp is not created equal but I just bet if you played around 600K hands there and ended up with the type of results I saw you may not be so steadfast in your beliefs. In fact I suspect after a few thousand hands a player with your knowledge of the game might pick up on the "dealt four to the flush on the draw" a lot quicker than I did and understand when this occurs on a regular basis it will most definatley have an effect on premium hands.

[shadowman]

  I have NEVER been successful playing video poker. EVER. In 32 years. I have hit the occassional royal flush or straight flush in a bonus round and walked out a big winner for the day but I have never had a year where I turned any kind of "profit" and would say most years have seen me down a LOT.    It just seems that in the past few years things have taken a much more noticable nosedive. Actually to be honest since "Hollywood Casino" has taken over the place I have gone it seems the machines have gotten a LOT tighter.  I don't keep any written records of win/loss but as I mentioned I have been at this almost since the day video poker was invented for casinos and I have a pretty good sense of when a machine or machines are more "dead" than normal.

 
Sara, what is the return of your play?
 
I've only been playing VP for 22 years so you have an edge on me. The first 7-8 years I had no idea what I was doing. I figured VP was just like slots only a little less boring. So, I did things like playing one nickel at a time and likely had a return no better than 90%. I didn't play very much and didn't hit a RF for 5 years. I'm sure I lost every year although I didn't keep good records. There was really no way I could win with the way I played.
 
Have you analyzed your play? If not, then why would you ever expect to win?
 
In the late 90s I learned that VP was random and discovered VP game returns and optimal strategy considerations. I started playing more in 1998 when I retired from full time work. I didn't keep great records because I was playing quarters and never thought about taxes.
 
That changed in one week in 2001 when I hit a progressive RF for $2300 and my wife hit another one the next day for $1700. Our first W2Gs. It was in January so I set up a spreadsheet and have been tracking our results ever since. We showed profits the first couple of years and then we both lost in 2003. That's when I started to think more seriously about our approach. I started to look for games with even better returns and/or casino promotions that improved the overall edge.
 
From that point on we have shown profits every year. However, the changes from year to year can be huge. The more one plays the less the yearly swings. When I was spending my winters in Vegas I would play a lot of multi-play. My overall play for many years was just under a million hands.
 
The variance you likely experience is over far fewer hands. If you aren't playing positive games then you are starting in a big hole. Just like my first 7-8 years it would be surprising for a person to win playing as I did. So, what is it you are doing that would lead you to expect to win?

[shadowman]

 I'm sure you're right about the possibilities when it comes to playing DDB. I experienced a couple of the bad streaks over the years but I always came roaring back. The worst streak I can remember having was playing DDB at Harrah's for about 35K hands and not hitting a single premium hand but like I said I popped out of it and things leveled out. I do however become more than a little suspicious when the bad streak seems to the norm and really never ends. When you play around 600K hands of DDB over a period of a few years at one casino and you lag behind the averages for every premium hand except the royal flush by around half the expected numbers it makes me wonder. I'm with you though when it comes to DDB being a beast but it's a bit far fetched in my mind to think that a player could play that many hands and come up missing badly on Aces w/K, Aces, 2's 3's 4's w/K and quad 2's 3's 4's year end and year out. I'm not pressing you to admit the possibilty that all vp is not created equal but I just bet if you played around 600K hands there and ended up with the type of results I saw you may not be so steadfast in your beliefs. In fact I suspect after a few thousand hands a player with your knowledge of the game might pick up on the "dealt four to the flush on the draw" a lot quicker than I did and understand when this occurs on a regular basis it will most definatley have an effect on premium hands.
 


If you saying you had only half the quads in 600K hands then I would avoid that place. That is far below the 20% threshold I mentioned in the other thread. Now, all kicker hands occur less frequently but 600K is still enough for the 2,3,4s to get within that threshold. It's probably not enough for AWAK but given the other results I simply wouldn't play there (unless you can see other people are doing fine).

[Burtwithau]

I would agree with Shadowman on this one.  If you're not hitting 4OAKs, especially the premium ones then you have to walk.  If I'm playing and I am only hitting the occasional 3of a kinds to Full Houses then I am usually in a losing session.  Everyone is different but I change things up at this point.  Change machines, if possible, change denominations, play 50-100 in WOF something.  I am aware that changing machines and denominations does not change my odds or anything but endlessly feeding the same machine at the same denomination is not enjoyable for me.I have mainly been playing video poker for 15 years or so.  Usually 1 time a month for 200-300.  More since I retired (2000).  I go to Vegas once or twice a year for some high intensity play.  I have had to claim my winnings on taxes in about half of the years but I haven't compared my lifetime winnings to losings.  I don't track it because it is a hobby for me and tracking sounds too much like work but to each their own.  What works for me is I do better when I am in tune with how my luck is running and having discipline in the money management aspects. My last playing session Saturday, the 15th, I hit 4 AWAK on a .50 machine for 1k.  I haven't had one of those since July.  I moved up to $1 and hit one minor 4 OAK then played it down to 800 ahead and left.  My current streak is 3 wins in a row.  Before that I had 2 losses in a row and before that I had my longest winning streak ever (7 times in a row).  It looks like 2012 will be a good year for VOP but bad for taxes (read as I am not complaining).  Good luck to all!!!

[ko king]

[QUOTE=ko king] I'm sure you're right about the possibilities when it comes to playing DDB. I experienced a couple of the bad streaks over the years but I always came roaring back. The worst streak I can remember having was playing DDB at Harrah's for about 35K hands and not hitting a single premium hand but like I said I popped out of it and things leveled out. I do however become more than a little suspicious when the bad streak seems to the norm and really never ends. When you play around 600K hands of DDB over a period of a few years at one casino and you lag behind the averages for every premium hand except the royal flush by around half the expected numbers it makes me wonder. I'm with you though when it comes to DDB being a beast but it's a bit far fetched in my mind to think that a player could play that many hands and come up missing badly on Aces w/K, Aces, 2's 3's 4's w/K and quad 2's 3's 4's year end and year out. I'm not pressing you to admit the possibilty that all vp is not created equal but I just bet if you played around 600K hands there and ended up with the type of results I saw you may not be so steadfast in your beliefs. In fact I suspect after a few thousand hands a player with your knowledge of the game might pick up on the "dealt four to the flush on the draw" a lot quicker than I did and understand when this occurs on a regular basis it will most definatley have an effect on premium hands.
 


If you saying you had only half the quads in 600K hands then I would avoid that place. That is far below the 20% threshold I mentioned in the other thread. Now, all kicker hands occur less frequently but 600K is still enough for the 2,3,4s to get within that threshold. It's probably not enough for AWAK but given the other results I simply wouldn't play there (unless you can see other people are doing fine).[/QUOTE]

The obvious solution is to avoid that casino but that still doesn't provide an answer as to how it could even occur on standard Class III vp games. I mean why would you avoid that casino when all standard Class III vp is the same, it has to be up to snuff because the regulations say it is. Anyway I'm not trying to jerk you around or start an argument, I just don't believe it's all cut and dry. After the first of the year I'll get the actual won/loss statement and let you take a look at real numbers in black and white if you have any interest in seeing them.

[BillyJoe]

By now, most folks who read my posts in Forum know my position regarding 'Win/Loss Stop Points' for money management when playing VP, so I will not go there. I do, however, want to make a couple of points on this subject.


 
Getting 4 cards of the same rank using only 10 cards out of a 52 card deck is inherently difficult to do. Even playing multi-line games, you still need to get that in a single line to get your quads. Looking for 'premium' quads, likes aces or TTFs, makes it even more difficult. Add the fact that you would like to see that fifth card as a 'kicker', and that difficulty level climbs even further. If you are playing games such as DDB or TDB, that is what you are playing for, and it is a very difficult thing to do.
 
Good pay tables in VP usually involve hands like flushes and FHs. All this really does is lengthen the number of hands that you are able to play with a given bankroll, or positively affect the overall outcome of your playing sessions. While this, of course, is very desirable, it does not change the fact that getting a premium quad in any given hand is very difficult.
 
Video poker is ruled by the "Law of Independent Trials", which means, what happened before does not affect what happens next. In games like blackjack, or other card table games where cards are dealt either by hand or out of a shoe, your hand CAN and IS affected by the cards that have already been dealt in that game. This is not true in VP, since each hand is from a 52 card deck (except, of course, 53 card decks in Five Aces or Joker Poker).
 
So why can't we all just accept the fact that VP is TOUGH.  Playing more hands increases the opportunity for those premium hands to occur, but does not give you any advantage on any particular hand.       

[Eduardo]

Good post, billyjoe.

Here is how I like to think of pay tables... you are right, it only affects certain hands, and we're all really after the big wins. Let's say those hands where the pay table differs happen every 40 hands or so (not sure what the actual odds are).

If you're playing dollars, would you rather play on a machine that spits out an extra 1 or 2 dollars every 40 hands, or one that does not? For me, that's not a difficult choice.

Some people think that the extra dollar or two that often won't make much difference. But that can add up to a lot of extra chances if you play much.

[DaBurglar]

This is an excellent thread/discussion, I am glad everyone is being honest and open and straightforward regardless of their personal beliefs or position on things..... I actually agree with and emulate much of shadowman's analytical techniques and approach, as I have kept very detailed data and records regarding my VP play over the years (i cannot claim I have 100% of my play results documented but It is significant....85% is about what I can definitely claim.)    In the other forum thread/discussion "multi line versus Single line" the debate is along the same lines as this thread, and over there shadowman stated he would question a machine that had a 20% or more discrepancy from expected probabilities when a total hand threshhold of 100,000 or more hands is reached....that is to say, after 100,000 hands you should expect to get about 200 or so quads (four of a kind....actually I think the frequency is once every 452 hands, isnt it?  But still 200 is about the target one would expect....)  If you received 20% or more FEWER quads, that is to say, if you received less than 160 total quads over your 100,000 hand sample playing session, something is not quite right with that machine.   I find this point by shadowman both interesting, and 100% correct/agreeable. It is over the last several years in Atlantic City specifically that I have definitely experienced something totally off kilter.   Now let me state here right now that over the last 3-4 years I have in fact experienced winning sessions and streaks at some AC casinos on certain specific machines.  In fact, one of my most prolific successes actually REINFORCES my recent credence to the thory/concept that VP machines can be "set" via user menues and settings to payout or withhold results according to a specific casino's agenda, results that FALL outside of expected norms....wayyyyy outside. Earlier this year at CAesars AC, from March thru early june, on a bank of four Five Star machines, I KILLED the dreamcard games there.....over a 2-1/2 month session of about 56-57,000 total dreamcard hands, I hit 4 Royals, 5 Aces with a kicker (on Triple double Bonus), and on Bonus Poker Deluxe I hit quads (four of a kind) at the most ridiculous clip during this run....specifically in situations where I had three of a kind and was drawing for the quads, I hit the quad an amazing 20.5 % of the time (Once every 5 times!!)  Now, normal expectation when drawing with 3 of a kind is to hit the quad about once every 22 time I believe, so this was wayyyyy out of bounds in my favor.   And it was not only ME.....several friends and at least two family members also played these same machines during the first 4-5 months of this year and had unusually large successes (mostly dreamcard, but my cousin also kicked azz playing the STP and random rewards games on these same machines.)   Now, in my case about 90% of my 57K hands were on one specific machine in this bank of four..... After June 15, things came to a DRASTIC halt and over the next 6 months until last week, the same four machines have literally SUCKED me, and my associate co-players dry....in my case, I've logged another 67,000 hands, give or take, ZERO Royals, and my quad percentage that previously was seemingly wayyy too successful is no embarrasingly non-existent:  I have received a total of 82 Quads since june 15 at these four machines over this 67K hand sample.....62 of the 82 quads came on drawing with three of a kind.   When I look at this stark dramatic dropoff over such long periods, combined with the fact that 5 or 6 other people have experienced almost the exact same type and pattern to their results over essentially the same period of time, leads me to conclude that it is at least POSSIBLE, if not probable, that prior to June 15 the machines had settings "dialed" in to pay out far above the expected normal range of results, and Post June 15, the machines were re-set to withhold paying out at a rate/level far below standard expected normal ranges.    it is just too much of a coincidence and too stark to be simple random variance and a "blip on the radar" that inevitably happens. Oh, one other weird fishy point about this lump of data from these Five star machines:  My frequency for "two pairs" was 55% HIGHER after the june 15 tipping point.....that is to say when things seemingly went south and I could not hit any premium hands, I received 55% More two pair hands over the 67,000 hand disaster session than occurred during the 57,000 hand winning session.....that's just too bizarre! Now, I have had other sessions at other AC casinos the past several years that have raised my concerns as well (the recent horror show at the ATlantic club I shared is a recent example), and while my gut tells me I have encountered several other machines that were amiss  I'm still sifting and sorting looking for trends or radical data aberrations in order to draw stable logical conclusions.    But the point to remember, aside from Shadow's point about only looking at instances that involve substantial numbers of hands and premium hand frequencies that are more than 20% off kilter,  none of us are FORCED to play at any one place or on any machine....dont feel embarrassed or funny if you jump from machine to machine, there seems to be some compelling reasons to do so in certain situations.  Also, I feel better now that Billiejoe has joined the conversation.....I dont know about anyone else, and I dont know if he thinks I am a whackjob or an annoying turd, but I feel whenever billiejoe joins a thread, the tension dissipates and things become more goodnatured.   Unless Bob Dancer jumps in with another pearl of wisdom on the role of stop-loss dynamics in a married couple's sex life.....

[faygo]

It apperars to me that in this thread and  the other one that allegations or at least insinuations are being made that the Casinos can affect the payback using methods other then the stated paytable and  they are being provided that ability by the Manufactures. Right?
I don't think the evidence presented here would want me to spend time doing a deposition.