How much do we still not know?

[ravenbynight111]

In this world the truth is never the truth,Any computer can be programed,I think every one can agree since 2008 the wins have went down. The casinos are not ging to let people win,The gaming board knows who butters there bread. Just like cops they look the other way.We live in very corruppt era. I bet pro football and do very well,but i also know how that certain game has there fixed outcomes it only take a few for games a week for the vegas and the books to get fat.Billion of dollars bet on football or video poker will have corruption.Just turn your tv on.Banks wall street on and on,Money rules are world not honesty, I wish my view was wrong but deep down we all know greed is every where.

[jetermacaw]

After reading thru this thread I thought I would tell of my play yesterday [1/1/ 2013] at Showboat in AC. Played 9/6 JB. Now I am strictly a novice but did count over 30, 4 to the flush draws without hitting 1. Gentleman sitting next to me seemed to be more of a regular and stated that they are almost non existent lately.

[mrgrandpiano]

I CAN'T agree that wins (i.e. winning hands) have gone down.  My video poker results are NOT statistically different from when I began playing in the 80's. I believe that the primary reason that video poker NET wins (i.e. total daily/weekly/yearly result) are down for the majority is the general downgrading of paytables, not in the reprogramming of poker machines.  I have seen no evidence in my play that the RNG of today produces a different outcome than that of the 80's when I began playing.  Only the paytables are different.

[DaBurglar]

Hey jetermacaw, first off, sorry about your crappy results, you DEFINITELY have my sympathy only because, as of late, I have had wayyyy more than my share of crappy results and losing sessions in and around Atlantic ****ty, and the SHOWBOAT has been part of this nightmare the past 6 months or so...... But your post says "30 four to a FLUSH draws".....do you mean Straight/royal flushes or just plain FLUSHES?     If It is just plain ol' flushes (paying 30 coins)  missing all 30 draws is pretty abysmal and sad, and is exactly the type of trend and result(s) I have seen and experience the past year or so in AC.  This, in turn, has led me to look at & analyze all my data from this period in AC, and gather all the input, anecdotes and opinions from other players and former Gaming industry employees/managers I know, and start constructing my different theories and conclusions as to what THEEEEEEE hell is going on.....hence this thread and a few others thru out this forum. I am dying to get a look at the user menus that exist somewhere deep in the set up screen bowels of the typical Video Poker machine that several of my friends have attested to seeing....its the only logical conclusion that makes sense in my opinion when one looks and weighs everything altogether.....  Edited to respond to mr grandpiano too:    I also agree, OBVIOUSLY, with mr grand piano, that the erosion of paytables over the past 2 decades has indeed played a strong role TOO in explaining why it is sooooo hard to win at all these days...... But the paytable theory, while completely sound and obvious as to veracity, does NOT by itself explain everything that is going on here.....the skewed hand results that I have experienced (i,e, the number of DEAD, or zero value hands, and the consistent, CONSTANT missing of all kinds of draws at a rate wayyyyy outside of expected statistical returns) have nothing to do with the paytables. 

[sam434343]

ko king & Daburglar, I lol with what you guys said borrow ko king true, and smoke crack and hookers Daburglar. I am still laughing good ones!  Raven i am very suspious person and in some way agree, i went over 21/2 years without a RF 2012 was best year hit two RF one progressive other $1000 and just got my statement from casino i am down 330 dollars for the year, now i go to Foxwoods about 15 to 17 times a year and all there video poker that i play is 96.79 and 97.02 DDB TDB yes i get free rooms,all kinds of knick knacks if i want to go down wnhen they have premotion,  I try and go down when they offer free money to draw out of bucket or bonus slot play day plus my weekly bonus slot play, When you talk about coruption it is true but if is legilized then it is not coruption,and that is what they have done legilized it so we cant call it coruption. The day when you could have Doctor come to your house and help you and pay him with bushel of corn or apples are gone now you have to give him a 1/4 of your house to work on you, sad but true. What we are teaching are kids in school today is not what you can learn it is how much money can you make when you get out of school, problem is teachers dont even know this, it is all about how much money you can make. There are very few things in this world now that have nothing to do with money. SAD.but true. Look how long it took are great leaders to hash out buget/taxes in the great US of america. Sad. But again true. Okay i getting sad writeing this have to stop. LOL Sam

[jetermacaw]

Just plain flushes.

[ko king]

Hey jetermacaw, first off, sorry about your crappy results, you DEFINITELY have my sympathy only because, as of late, I have had wayyyy more than my share of crappy results and losing sessions in and around Atlantic ****ty, and the SHOWBOAT has been part of this nightmare the past 6 months or so......
 
But your post says "30 four to a FLUSH draws".....do you mean Straight/royal flushes or just plain FLUSHES?   
 
If It is just plain ol' flushes (paying 30 coins)  missing all 30 draws is pretty abysmal and sad, and is exactly the type of trend and result(s) I have seen and experience the past year or so in AC.  This, in turn, has led me to look at & analyze all my data from this period in AC, and gather all the input, anecdotes and opinions from other players and former Gaming industry employees/managers I know, and start constructing my different theories and conclusions as to what THEEEEEEE hell is going on.....hence this thread and a few others thru out this forum.
 
I am dying to get a look at the user menus that exist somewhere deep in the set up screen bowels of the typical Video Poker machine that several of my friends have attested to seeing....its the only logical conclusion that makes sense in my opinion when one looks and weighs everything altogether.....
 
 
Edited to respond to mr grandpiano too:    I also agree, OBVIOUSLY, with mr grand piano, that the erosion of paytables over the past 2 decades has indeed played a strong role TOO in explaining why it is sooooo hard to win at all these days......
 
But the paytable theory, while completely sound and obvious as to veracity, does NOT by itself explain everything that is going on here.....the skewed hand results that I have experienced (i,e, the number of DEAD, or zero value hands, and the consistent, CONSTANT missing of all kinds of draws at a rate wayyyyy outside of expected statistical returns) have nothing to do with the paytables. 
In this area there has been little to no erosion of paytables, we have several casinos around these parts, some with far better paytables than others. I could be at a casino in as little as 30 minutes or as much as 2 hours depending on which state I choose to play in. I play a lot of vp and I could tell you where the best pay tables were and the worst, paytables for the same game range from 99.44% to 95.12%. Funny thing is the best paytable may not reflect as to which casino is better to play at, I proved that 4 years running. I'm enjoying the conversation we have going on in this thread but I'd like to bring up a point. I kept records, good sound records but I was just one player. Regardless of what you may or may not discover as far as "how much do we still not know" it will mean very little and nothing will change. Not much you can do or say as an individual that would or could have an effect or cause change to the gaming at any certain casino other than just walk away, all the casino or the state for that matter understands or care about is dollars. I ran way below the expected statistical rate for quality quads on DDB for 100's of thousands of hands and every year looked almost identical. From quad  aces w/kicker all the way down the ladder the quality hands were lacking in a big way, I even thought I knew why and how this could happen. In the end though it pretty comes down to "you're just one player", convenient, but true.

[onemoretry]

   If It is just plain ol' flushes (paying 30 coins)  missing all 30 draws is pretty abysmal and sad, and is exactly the type of trend and result(s) I have seen and experience the past year or so in AC. 
 The probability of completing a flush with a one card draw is 0.19 (i.e, 9/47).  So, the probability of failure is 0.81. The probability of failure 30 times in a row is 0.0017 which does seem like an impossibly small number, until you invert it and see that it equates to about one in 588. The most common route to a royal is a deal of three to the royal, and a successful 2 card draw.  The probability of successfully completing that two card draw is 0.000925 (i.e. 1/1081). I have yet to see anyone suggest that hitting a royal on a two card draw means the machine is rigged in favour of the player, yet fail on 30 consecutive one card flush draws, which is almost twice as likely to happen, and, ohmygod! the machine is unfair!

[mrgrandpiano]

To DaBurglar:You only responded to my paytable considerations.  I also said that my winning hands (ignoring paytable) are statistically indistinguishable from my results of the 80's.   What I am saying is that I CAN'T agree that the winning hands frequency has changed for me. In a previous post you said "I think every one can agree since 2008 the wins have went down".  This is the statement that, for me at least, based on about 1.5 million hands in the past 2 years doesn't hold true. Also, for the poster that missed 30 flushes in a row, look for this type of player bias.  When playing 10 play, you get a four flush and miss all 10 flushes.  Unusual, but not surprisingly so, about 12%.  Only then does someone start counting missed 4 flushes.  Now if you miss 30 the odds are really only the same as missing 20.  These odds are about 1 in 70, not remarkable at all and expected to occur several times in an evening of play. The only way (without seeing the internal RNG) to verify these claims for yourself is: 1. Formulate your hypothesis.  This is usually done based on past evidence. 2. Tabulate your results.  Here I suggest a willing assistant so that both can agree that the hand meets the criteria for analysis.  For most of us, it is too difficult to play and tabulate without missing results.  Studies show that errors made in tabulation tend to support the hypothesis, called confirmation bias. 3. Statistically analyse the results to determine the probability of the hypothesis being true. NOTE: I do not play in AC or LV at this time and cannot speak on those venues.  However, I play poker machines by manufacturers that sell to both AC and LV. 

[ko king]

I CAN'T agree that wins (i.e. winning hands) have gone down.  My video poker results are NOT statistically different from when I began playing in the 80's. I believe that the primary reason that video poker NET wins (i.e. total daily/weekly/yearly result) are down for the majority is the general downgrading of paytables, not in the reprogramming of poker machines.  I have seen no evidence in my play that the RNG of today produces a different outcome than that of the 80's when I began playing.  Only the paytables are different.


First off, congrats to you and I think that's probably the case in most players situation. I'm like you, I started playing back in the 80's myself. Many years ago we had a local casino we all loved to play at and pretty much when and where my love affair with vp started. It truly was the best example I have ever witnessed for fair and balanced play for both slots and vp and everyone in this area agrees with me 100%. The local casino was bought out by a huge corporate entity well known in the casino industry and changes came fast. All the vp machines were replaced and a large number of the slot machines, there was nothing wrong with any of the machines but they were removed none the less. The mumbling and groaning from players started pretty quick, everyone was not only feeling the difference but it was pretty easy to see also. I kid you not before the buyout it was a rare occasion for me not to at least see someone hit a royal flush, after the buyout a royal became almost like spotting a unicorn, the possibility they might exist was there but you just didn't ever see one, let alone actually get to touch and feel one. The atmosphere for slots changed also and even the floor attendents agreed, things weren't the same and the machines just weren't paying like they used to. The big crowds at the local casino slowly began to defect and migrate to other casinos but the casino still stands today, I go in there every once in a while to see if anything has changed but it remains the same, only the faces have changed, kinda sad and pathetic in a way. I've had several conversations with people over the years about how and why the possible change occurred and I always repeat this story. I was worked at a small company that had a motto, "cost + 13", everything we sold was marked up no more than 13% and we had a huge happy growing customer base that required a lot of attention and service. We were bought out by a large company that didn't like our way of doing business, several employees were laid off and the cubacks came in droves. I was a bit naive when it came to doing business like this so I questioned the district manager about why these changes were being made. The answer was short, sweet and made perfect sense. Would you rather do $100 million dollars worth of business at 13% profit or do $50 million dollars worth of business at 40% profit? Yes we lost customers but the profit margin soared and the cost of doing the business went down big time.