Good day or bad day...

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
Post Reply
FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Good day or bad day...

Post by FloridaPhil »

Is it me, or can anyone else tell if they are going to have a good or bad day within the first 30 minutes of play?  Seems like lately it's all or nothing. 

Vman96
Video Poker Master
Posts: 3298
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am

Post by Vman96 »

If your sessions are shorter, you'll definitely note this pattern within 30 minutes of play. My sessions are mostly short, so I tend to notice this pattern a lot. It is a clear prediction of future results? No, but if your sessions are often less than an hour in length, the first 30 minutes is a big sample of your overall result.

FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

Makes sense.  My sessions are usually no longer than 3-4 hours at a time.  Rarely do I do well if I start out with an hour of bad hands.   On the other hand, if I get 2-3 4-of-kinds right out of the box, it's usually going to go well.    I'm not counting Royals which can happen at any time. 

BobDancer
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1115
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am

Post by BobDancer »

Your score in hour two of your play is usually not correlated very closely with your score the first hour. In other words, you can't tell how well your next hour will be by looking at your last hour.If you record your results hourly, you'll see that this is true.If you start out -1000 credits --- of course you usually don't get back to even. After all, what percentage of the time do you get 1000 credits ahead starting out from zero? It's the same percentage each time --- just different starting points.Similarly if you start out +1000 credits, you usually stay ahead. Not because of a streak, it's just because losing 1000 credits is relatively rare.Your results will exhibit a certain degree of randomness --- where they average the return on the game multiplied by your accuracy level. Starting out plus or minus is never a good indicator of whether your next few hours will be plus or minus. Starting out big plus or minus IS a good --- not perfect --- predictor of which side of zero you will end up. Not because you're still hot or still cold, but just because you started with a big head start --- one way or the other.Bob


FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

Interesting.  As a recreational player I have a limited bankroll, so if I get a nice run early I usually stash a few white tickets away so I go home even then play with the rest.  The pressure is off and my attitude seems to be better.  When this happens, it turns into a good day no matter what the cards do.  It's funny how we humans try to make order out of random events.  You could probably write a good book on the subject... 

Post Reply